NASCAR Sprint Cup Series points leader Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson have combined to win the past four Brickyard 400 events as NSCS continues after a mid-summer break last weekend, with the 16th Allstate 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on Sunday at 12:30 p.m., televised by ESPN. Formerly known as the Brickyard 400, the annual 400-mile race is held at the historic Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Gamblers should keep in mind when figuring out who will be the driver to kiss the bricks this year that seven of the past 15 Brickyard 400 winners have gone on to win the Sprint Cup Championship, with Jeff Gordon and Johnson doing it twice. Johnson won the 400 and the NSCS title in 2006 and in '08 while teammate Gordon won both in 1998 and 2001.

Who will win the 2009 Allstate 400?

Johnson is the defending champion, having won last year's Allstate 400 from the pole while Gordon, who won the inaugural Brickyard 400 in 1994, has not won this race since 2004. However, if the recent IMS trend continues then it's Tony Stewart (23rd last year) who will win on Sunday. But let's take a closer look at the contenders before recommending a play on the hometown favorite Smoke.

Speaking of Smoke, you'll recall last year's race due to all the smoke coming from the blown tires. From a fan's perspective last year's Allstate 400 was one of the worst races of the year due to the interminable competition yellow flags that seemed to wave every six to eight laps due to excessive tire failures. This year Goodyear has promised they have fixed all that ailed the tires and fans should not expect this to happen again.  

Even though he has finished in the Top 10 in five of the last nine races (including two second place finishes) and three Top-10s in the last four races at the Brickyard, Matt Kenseth found out he is losing DeWalt, his sponsor for the last 10 years. Kenseth looked like he was on a roll when this season opened, winning the first two races the Daytona 500 and the Auto Club 500. 

While Kenseth has managed to stay within the Top 12 for the Chase, he has not done well recently. Two weeks ago at Chicagoland Kenseth finished 23rd and is now on the cusp of the Chase for the Sprint Cup in 12th place, 10 points in front of Greg Biffle but only 41 points from eighth place. While Kenseth is a great choice at IMS given his track record, I am wondering if the news that Kenseth has lost his main sponsor for 2010 will have an adverse effect on his confidence this Sunday. I am not the only one who feels this way as the odds of him winning this event are 22/1 -- and even at those odds I am going to pass backing the No. 17 Ford. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Kenseth fall out of the Top 12 by the end of the race.

Another driver who started well but has had trouble in the summer season is Kyle Busch. In four starts at Indianapolis Busch, who is set at 12/5, has no wins, one Top-5 and one Top-10 finish. Busch has three wins this season. Busch did win his sixth Nationwide race of the season last weekend, but he has been having a hard time translating those Nationwide victories into Sprint Cup wins.  Last year "Rowdy" finished 15th at IMS in a year he dominated Sprint Cup races for the first three quarters of the season. Right now Busch sits at 10th place and could be in danger of falling out of the Chase, so I look for him to be in the lead pack for most of the race and perhaps even a Top-5 finish.

Carl Edwards, set at 12/5 to win this Sunday, finished second last year, but like "Rowdy" the No. 99 car was one of the three dominant cars of the entire season. However, this year things are different and Edwards has yet to win his first race of the season, a much different outcome than most experts predicted. Edwards doesn't have the car he did last year and while he's always a threat to win when he gets behind the wheel, I think this year that threat is somewhat less than it was last year. I am laying-off Edwards as well.

Johnson is in third place in the NSCS behind Jeff Gordon and Stewart and set as the 3/2 favorite to win back-to-back Allstate 400s. However, last year Johnson was the beneficiary of all those blown tires and excellent race management by Crew Chief Chad Knaus. In seven starts at IMS Johnson has two wins (and two Top-5s) to go along with his three Top-10s.

Jeff Gordon is set as the third favorite at 2/1 behind Stewart and Johnson, respectively. Despite his one win this season, Gordon has been the model of consistency, placing in the Top-10 in most of the races he's raced this season and this has kept him in second place in the NSCS -- so expect to see the No. 24 Chevrolet in the Chase later on this year. At the Brickyard nobody is better and you should see Gordon running well during the 160 laps.

Now that I have looked at a few of the contenders I think I'll stick with my gut and back Smoke, who has been consistently the best driver all season, to win for a few units.

Pick! Tony Stewart, No. 14, (9/5)

2009 Allstate 400 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

It's been a tough year for Richard Childress Racing's Jeff Burton. Now with the buzz about teammate Kevin Harvick leaving or staying RCR when Harvick's contract expires, it will no doubt remove the media from too much coverage of Burton and will allow him to fly under the radar at a track where he has done well. Burton will attempt to get his third consecutive Top-10 finish on Sunday. Unfortunately for Burton, he was involved in a late race wreck at Chicagoland, which sent him from 15th to 17th in the NSCS. Burton won the pole in 2006 so he knows how to drive around the track very fast for one lap. We'll see how he does for 160.

Pick! Jeff Burton, No. 31, (35/1)

2009 Allstate 400- Odds for Top 3 Finish

Kasey Kahne has never won at IMS in seven starts. However, Kahne came in seventh last year and won his last NASCAR race on June 28 at Infineon in Sonoma, California. The reason why I like Kahne, who is currently in eighth place in the NSCS standings, is because of the tire issue last year at IMS. After IMS Goodyear went back to Indianapolis to fix the problems with their tires. Guess which driver tested the tires at least six times at IMS? That is right, Kahne. I think this gives Kahne an edge over the other drivers this Sunday. Two weeks ago at Chicagoland Kahne finished third, exactly where I expect him to finish on Sunday.

Pick! Kasey Kahne, No. 9, 9/2

Sprint Cup Series Allstate 400 - Odds for Top 3 Finish*
Sun, July 26th 12:30 p.m. Indianapolis Motor Speedway

AJ Allmendinger  30/1    
Bobby Labonte  30/1    
Brian Vickers  15/2    
Carl Edwards  12/5    
Casey Mears  30/1    
Clint Bowyer  9/1    
Dale Earnhardt Jr  9/1    
David Ragan  18/1    
David Reutimann  18/1    
David Stremme  30/1    
Denny Hamlin  3/1    
Elliott Sadler  30/1    
Greg Biffle  7/2    
Jamie McMurray  18/1    
Jeff Burton  18/1    
Jeff Gordon  2/1    
Jimmie Johnson  3/2    
Joey Logano  30/1    
Juan Pablo Montoya  12/1    
Kasey Kahne  9/2    
Kevin Harvick  15/1    
Kurt Busch  7/2    
Kyle Busch  12/5    
Mark Martin  2/1    
Martin Truex Jr  18/1    
Matt Kenseth  6/1    
Michael Waltrip  30/1    
Paul Menard  30/1    
Reed Sorenson  30/1    
Ryan Newman  9/1    
Sam Hornish Jr  30/1    
Scott Speed  30/1    
Tony Stewart  9/5    
zx Field (Any Other Driver)  15/1    

* Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com

Sprint Cup Series Odds to win the Allstate 400* 
Sun, July 26th 12:30 p.m. Indianapolis Motor Speedway

Brian Vickers 25/1  
Carl Edwards 9/1 
Clint Bowyer 30/1 
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 30/1 
David Reutimann  60/1 
Denny Hamlin 12/1 
Greg Biffle 18/1 
Jeff Burton  35/1 
Jeff Gordon  7/1 
Jimmie Johnson 5/1 
Joey Logano 35/1 
Juan Pablo Montoya 25/1 
Kasey Kahne 20/1 
Kevin Harvick 40/1 
Kurt Busch 15/1 
Kyle Busch 17/2  
Mark Martin 10/1 
Matt Kenseth 22/1 
Ryan Newman 20/1 
Tony Stewart 5/1 
Field (Any Other Driver)  25/1 

*Odds courtesy of Bodog