Mark Martin surprised and delighted NASCAR fans last week as the "old man" ended his 97-race winless streak at Phoenix. He'll try for two in a row this weekend at Talladega Superspeedway, a place where he has not won since 1997, to celebrate 40 years of bumping, drafting, and spectacular wrecks for the Aaron's 499 this Sunday, April 26 at 1 p.m. FOX will televise the race.

Who will win the 2009 Aaron's 499?

What makes Talladega a favorite track (at 2.66 miles the high-banked tri-oval is NASCAR's longest track) for fans is that they can expect the unexpected. Last October it looked like Regan Smith won the race, beating out Stewart with Paul Menard finishing third and David Ragan fourth. However, NASCAR officials concluded that Smith illegally passed Stewart on the final turn, going below the yellow line. Smith said he was forced over the line. But NASCAR sided with Stewart who claimed his first Talladega victory of his career.

It's hard to look back at Daytona, another restrictor plate track, to predict how drivers will do at Talladega. Daytona is worn and bumpy while Talladega is smooth and wide and was repaved in 2006. Bumping and drafting don't always work at Talladega. Just ask Carl Edwards, whose aggressive driving did just that to Greg Biffle and caused an enormous multi-car wreck last October.

Gamblers should be wary of backing a few drivers at Talladega. Greg Biffle has five DNFs in his last six starts at 'Dega. The Daytona 500 pole-sitter, Martin Truex Jr., has had a hard time at Talladega as he has not finished the past three races at the superspeedway.

At fourth place in the Sprint Cup standings Tony Stewart has defied expectations this year and will look to win two in a row at 'Dega. In 20 starts Smoke has 12 top-10 finishes of which he has finished second six times.

Nobody has amassed more points in the last four races at Talladega than Johnson, however. His 622 points leads all drivers at the Superspeedway and during that same time period Johnson has notched two second places and finished no worse than 13. But then Johnson is always a threat to win every time he gets in the No. 48.

My pick to win this Sunday is No. 18. Kyle Busch won Talladega's spring race last year; the first of two restrictor plate victories of 2008. At Daytona Kyle Busch led the race for 88 laps. "Rowdy" must be still fuming about getting flagged for speeding down pit-row at Phoenix with less than 10 laps to go. He started the race in second but that move cost him and he finished 17th at PIR.

Pick! Kyle Busch, No. 18, (3/2)

2009 Aaron's 499 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

In keeping with the theme that anything is possible and quite likely at Talladega I'm looking at a driver that does very well at restrictor plate races. The last time Rousch Fenway Racing's David Ragan finished in the top 10 was at the Daytona 500 when Ragan finished sixth after starting the race 33rd on the grid. In four starts at Talladega Ragan has notched two top-five finishes; both came last year. In the spring race Ragan finished fourth and in autumn he improved to finish third. Granted, he moved up a space after Smith's win was disallowed, but even so Ragan is proving to be a restrictor plate specialist. In 2007 Ragan finished 17th in spring and 34th in autumn, which explains his 14.5-place average finish. Last October Ragan even managed to lead the pack for 11 laps. He was the only NASCAR driver to record two top-five finishes at Talladega last year. I won't be surprised to see the No. 6 UPS Ford leading again and perhaps even surprising everyone with an improbable win at the crap shoot that is Talladega.

Pick! David Ragan, No. 6, (30/1)

2009 Aaron's 499 - Odds for Top 3 Finish

Earlier this year I picked Jeff Gordon to win Daytona, citing his restrictor plate success, experience, and rejuvenated team. He started third on the grid and looked good in the beginning of the race. But Gordon closed poorly and finished the race 13th. Since then Gordon has not looked back and has currently been the 2009 Sprint Cup points leader for the past six races. Gordon has finished in the top-five in five out of eight Sprint Cup races this year; including a win at Texas, two seconds and two fourths. Last week at Phoenix he began the race in fourth and finished 25th, his worst finish of the year. Gordon's lead over teammate Jimmie Johnson has shrunk to 85 points, and given Gordon's restrictor plate success I like him to bounce back big time on Sunday. In 2008 Gordon finished 19th in spring and 38th after an accident knocked him out of the autumn race. But in 2007 Gordon swept both races at 'Dega and has earned a career 550 points in Alabama. In 32 starts at Talladega Gordon has six wins with three of those wins coming in the spring race. Talladega is one of the hardest races on the circuit to predict, but I see the points' leader finishing this race in the top three.

Pick! Jeff Gordon, No. 24, (12/5)

2009 Aaron's 499 - Odds to finish in the Top 3
April 26, 2009 Talladega Superspeedway

A.J. Allmendinger 15/1
Bobby Labonte 18/1
Brian Vickers 10/1
Carl Edwards 7/2
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 9/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 5/2
David Ragan 9/1
David Reutimann 12/1
David Stremme 15/1
Denny Hamlin 3/1
Elliott Sadler 15/1
Greg Biffle 12/1
Jamie McMurray 12/1
Jeff Burton 9/1
Jeff Gordon 12/5
Jimmie Johnson 5/2
Joey Logano 30/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 12/1
Kasey Kahne 12/1
Kevin Harvick 6/1
Kurt Busch 7/2
Kyle Busch 3/2
Mark Martin 9/2
Martin Truex Jr. 12/1
Matt Kenseth 6/1
Michael Waltrip 15/1
Paul Menard 30/1
Reed Sorenson 30/1
Ryan Newman 10/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1
Scott Speed 30/1
Tony Stewart 13/5
Field (Any Other Driver) 6/1

Sprint Cup Series - Odds to win the Aaron's 499
April 26, 2009 Talladega Superspeedway

A.J. Allmendinger 50/1
Bobby Labonte 60/1
Brian Vickers 35/1
Carl Edwards 12/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 30/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 9/1
David Ragan 30/1
David Reutimann 40/1
David Stremme 50/1
Denny Hamlin 10/1
Elliott Sadler 50/1
Greg Biffle 40/1
Jamie McMurray 40/1
Jeff Burton 30/1
Jeff Gordon 8/1
Jimmie Johnson 9/1
Joey Logano 100/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 40/1
Kasey Kahne 40/1
Kevin Harvick 20/1
Kurt Busch 12/1
Kyle Busch 5/1
Mark Martin 15/1
Martin Truex Jr. 40/1
Matt Kenseth 20/1
Michael Waltrip 50/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Ryan Newman 35/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Speed100/1
Tony Stewart 9/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 20/1

*Odds courtesy of Bodog