NCAA and NFL Betting Trends From WagerWeb
by Matt Severance - 10/14/2008
Thanks again to the folks at WagerWeb for giving us their trends from the past weekend (Oct. 11-12) of football. Hopefully these numbers give you an insight into how others are betting and help you formulate a game plan.
NCAA SATURDAY
Top 5 games with most action overall (total take):
Texas vs. Oklahoma, 11.2 percent
LSU vs. Florida, 6.0 percent
Oklahoma State vs. Missouri, 5.3 percent
Penn State vs. Wisconsin, 4.7 percent
Nebraska vs. Texas Tech, 4 percent
Overview: This past weekend's action was notable in that it's the first time since we've been tracking the numbers at WagerWeb that the Top 5 games with the most action all involved ranked teams. Three of these (LSU-Florida, Oklahoma State-Missouri, Penn State-Wisconsin) were nationally televised night games. It's the second consecutive week a Big 12 game has taken the most action - something I predicted in last week's column would be the case with that Texas-Oklahoma Red River Rivalry clearly the game of the day last Saturday. LSU-Florida was the other marquee matchup and not surprisingly came in at No. 2. For what it's worth, only two favorites covered here: Florida and Penn State.
Most one-sided games (biggest action on one team):
Kent State, 97.9 percent, vs. Ohio
Air Force, 96.5 percent, vs. San Diego State
Arkansas State, 95.1 percent, vs. UL Monroe
BYU, 93.1 percent, vs. New Mexico
Florida International, 94.0 percent, vs. Middle Tennessee St.
Overview: It surprises me every week what teams bettors will heavily favor. I mean, Arkansas State vs. Louisiana-Monroe? Florida International vs. Middle Tennessee State? I lived in Miami for a year and didn't even know Florida International was located there until about nine months in! Last week's Top 5 included no ranked teams, and only one resided among them this week: BYU. So how did the favorites fare? Kent State was getting 1-1.5 points and didn't cover; Air Force did cover as a 10.5-point favorite; Arkansas State won but didn't cover the 13-point spread; BYU won easily but didn't cover a big 23-point spread against the Lobos; and Florida International covered the small spread vs. MTSU. I'm a little surprised that Bowling Green-Akron was not among the Top 5, as that game went off as a pick'em on many sites, and I personally trend toward pick'em games as you only need to get the right team. That was the only major Division I game listed as pick'em last week.
NFL SUNDAY
Top 5 games with most action overall (total take):
New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers, 21.7 percent
Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals, 11.8 percent
Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers, 9.1 percent
Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons, 8.5 percent
Oakland Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints, 7.2 percent
Overview: No big news here: The Sunday night game again easily pulls in the most action. And, as has been the case every week, Dallas is among the Top 5 games with the most action. It will be interesting to see if that's the case with Tony Romo on the sideline. The favorites covered three of the five games here, with the Cowboys and the Bears losing straight up on the road. That should tell you not to bet road favorites in the NFL if you can help it.
Most one-sided games (biggest action on one team):
Minnesota Vikings, 77 percent, vs. Detroit Lions
Houston Texans, 68.5 percent, vs. Miami Dolphins
New Orleans Saints, 65.3 percent, vs. Oakland Raiders
Philadelphia Eagles, 64.5 percent, vs. San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons, 63.5 percent, vs. Chicago Bears
Overview: Well, the top two most one-sided games were big-time losers for bettors. The Vikings were coming off a short week and facing a fellow dome/NFC North tenant in the Lions and were giving up 13 points, which was way too many in my opinion. And the Vikes were fortunate just to win on a last-second field goal. The Texans also won in the final seconds, but that Matt Schaub fourth-down TD run wasn't enough for Houston to cover the three-point spread vs. Miami. Only one underdog among these five, and that was the Falcons. People really do prefer the favorites, it appears.
There's your quick look at last weekend in football, thanks to WagerWeb. I would expect this weekend's Missouri-Texas game to be the most-bet next week among NCAA games. I also foresee two Big Ten games among that group: Michigan (getting a whopping 23.5 points right now) at Penn State and Ohio State at Michigan State. In the pros, I expect the Cowboys bandwagon to empty some following their second loss in three games and the loss of Romo and Felix Jones to injury (don't forget their punter, too). The Sunday night game is Seattle-Tampa Bay, which I think ends the trend of the night game being the most wagered. Colts-Packers, with a minimal line currently, might well win the weekend in terms of action.