NCAA and NFL Betting Trends From WagerWeb
by Matt Severance - 10/07/2008
Thanks again to the folks at WagerWeb for giving us their trends from the past weekend (Oct. 4-5) of football. Hopefully these numbers give you an insight into how others are betting and help you formulate a game plan.
NCAA SATURDAY
Top 5 games with most action overall (total take):
Missouri vs. Nebraska, 7.4 percent
Oregon vs. Southern Cal, 5.0 percent
Texas Tech vs. Kansas State, 4.2 percent
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin, 4.1 percent
Iowa vs. Michigan State, 3.7 percent
Overview: A bit surprising this week in that all the games involved BCS conference teams, which is a first since we've been providing these numbers this year. And four of the five involved ranked teams. Two of those games were prime-time national TV matchups: Missouri-Nebraska and Ohio State-Wisconsin, so bettors do still prefer those big national games if they don't find value elsewhere. For what it's worth, all four of the ranked favorites won and covered, with three of those coming on the road (Missouri, Texas Tech, OSU). Unranked Michigan State was favored by 6.5 and did win but a late Iowa TD ruined the Spartans' cover. And the Spartans are now ranked, for what it's worth. Another surprise here: No SEC games, which had been a staple in top action.
Most one-sided games (biggest action on one team):
Oklahoma State, 91.4 percent vs. Texas A&M
Fresno State, 89.3 percent vs. Hawaii
Idaho, 89.1 percent vs. Nevada
Western Kentucky, 88.5 percent vs. Virginia Tech
Bowling Green, 86.7 percent vs. Eastern Michigan
Overview: People are climbing fast on the Oklahoma State bandwagon, as the high-scoring Cowboys covered against the sinking Aggies. That was the only BCS conference game among the Top 5 in this category, which seems to be a trend each week. The second-most wagered game was a major loss for bettors as Hawaii beat Fresno State straight up. Idaho was a big underdog and couldn't cover, while Western Kentucky did cover against the offensively challenged Hokies. Bowling Green was a big loser for bettors, as EMU won on the road. I am no longer surprised that a MAC game is among the top 5 one-sided bets each week, but in that league any team can win on any Saturday - unlike in most power conferences.
NFL SUNDAY
Top 5 games with most action overall (total take):
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 26.2 percent
Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals, 9.8 percent
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys, 9.0 percent
San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins, 8.3 percent
New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers, 8.1 percent
Overview: Yet again the Sunday night game pulled the most action of the week and yet again a game involving the Dallas Cowboys was in the Top 5. The Jags' line inched up a bit when it was thought that Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger might not play, but Steelers backers were big winners on the night. Arizona opened last week as a 'pick'em' against Buffalo and went off as a 1-point favorite and it routed the Bills once Trent Edwards went down early for Buffalo. As for Dallas, well, bettors just love Dallas, although the Cowboys didn't cover the biggest NFL number on the board for the second straight week. And bettors had faith in Pats coach Bill Belichick coming out of the bye as New England covered.
Most one-sided games (biggest action on one team):
Indianapolis Colts, 80.7 percent vs. Houston Texans
Philadelphia Eagles, 76.5 percent vs. Washington Redskins
San Diego Chargers, 75.7 percent vs. Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots, 75.4 percent vs. San Francisco 49ers
Carolina Panthers, 74.3 percent vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Overview: Colts bettors need to go buy a lottery ticket this week, as the fact Indy covered the three-point spread is nothing short of a miracle after the Colts trailed 27-10 with about five minutes left in the fourth quarter. Any of you who won on the Colts in this game should send a thank you card to Texans QB and turnover machine Sage Rosenfels. I mentioned in my Suicide Pool column that I was surprised the Eagles were such large favorites (six points) over Washington with Philly's injury concerns, and while all of the Eagles' stars played, Philly lost straight up. I'm guessing you won't see the Redskins on the other side of these one-sided bets any longer. The Chargers also lost straight up as a near-TD road favorite this week, and I'm willing to wager that bettors are much more careful on the Dolphins from now on as they have beaten last year's two AFC title game finalists in their past two games. The Pats were only getting three at the Niners, and they covered pretty easily, while the Panthers easily covered the 9.5 over Kansas City, which is pitiful on the road.
There's your quick look at last weekend in football, thanks to WagerWeb. It will be interesting to see the numbers this week in NCAA action, with so many top games: LSU-Florida, Texas-Oklahoma, Oklahoma State-Missouri and Penn State-Wisconsin leading the way. In the NFL, Carolina-Tampa Bay, Jacksonville-Denver and the Sunday night New England-San Diego matchup are probably the games of the week. The Rams and Raiders also play their first games under new coaches.