NCAA and NFL Betting Trends From WagerWeb
by Matt Severance - 09/30/2008
Thanks again to the folks at WagerWeb for providing us with their statistical data from the past weekend in football betting. Hopefully these numbers will give you a window into how others are betting and help you formulate a game plan.
First, a look at college football this past Saturday:
NCAA biggest one-sided game bets:
Wake Forest, 91.2 percent vs. Navy
Western Michigan, 94.9 percent vs. Temple
Western Kentucky, 91.3 percent vs. Kentucky
Oklahoma State, 95.9 percent vs. Troy
Duke, 93.3 percent vs. Virginia
Overview: Wake Forest, of course, was a straight-up loser to Navy, while Western Michigan pushed as a four-point favorite at Temple. Western Kentucky did not cover, while Oklahoma State and Duke did so rather easily. I again credit smart bettors for trying to find the best value, as only one of the top five games for handle was a contest involving two BCS conference teams.
Day's biggest action for one team:
Alabama, 9.2 percent
Stanford, 6.1 percent
Illinois, 5.4 percent
TCU, 5.0 percent
Mississippi, 4.9 percent
Overview: Apparently Nick Saban fever is not limited to just fans but also bettors. Alabama-Georgia was expected to have the most action, but the fact that 9.2 percent of all NCAA bets on Saturday were on Alabama is amazing, considering the Tide were a touchdown road dog. Yet the Tide obviously destroyed Georgia. I think the Stanford number is more indicative of the shape of the Washington Huskies than faith in the Cardinal. But people definitely liked the underdogs on Saturday!
NFL biggest one-sided game bets:
San Diego Chargers, 78.37 percent vs. Oakland Raiders
Cleveland Browns, 76.7 percent vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Minnesota Vikings, 72.35 percent Tennessee Titans
Carolina Panthers, 71.6 percent over Atlanta Falcons
Overview: I guarantee you all that action on San Diego, despite the nine-point spread, was because bettors knew that the Bolts had a nine-game winning streak in the series. And the Chargers did extend it to 10, but were lucky to cover. I also would expect that much of that Browns action arrived late, once it was determined that Carson Palmer was out for the game. That Vikings number I can't explain, other than bettors not having much faith in an unbeaten Titans team.
NFL's biggest trends (percentage of all bets taken, Top 5 games):
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears: 24.8 percent
Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys: 12.4 percent
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 9.76 percent
San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints: 7.3 percent
San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders: 6.8 percent
Overview: No surprise that the Sunday night game got the most action on the day, although I'm sure most of that was on Philly once Donovan McNabb was announced as a starter. You will also see the Cowboys on every Top 5 list this year in terms of action. Also, three of these games had at least an eight-point spread and two of the dogs (Washington and KC) won outright.
There's your look at last week's football betting patterns at WagerWeb. Hopefully this will give you some valuable insight into your bets for this week.