Tuesday Night Football Preview
by Nicholas Tolomeo - 10/28/2008
A pair of mid-major primetime games kicks off the college football week tonight. Buffalo visits Ohio (-1.5) in a MAC Conference showdown while favored Houston (-7.5) travels to Marshall.
Buffalo (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS) and Ohio (2-6 SU, 4-3 ATS) kickoff at 7:00 p.m. EST. The game will be televised on ESPNU. If recent history between these teams means anything the point spread will not be an issue at all. Starting in 2004, no game between these two teams has been decided by less than two touchdowns. In 2004 Ohio shutout Buffalo, 34-0, and knocked them off again, 34-20, the next season. Ohio continued its streak of dominance over the Bulls with a 42-7 win in 2006 but Buffalo returned the favor last year with a 31-10 win as four-point underdogs.
Buffalo backers will be happy to know that the Bulls fare much better as underdogs than favorites. In the underdog role this season, Buffalo is 3-0 ATS, covering the spreads against Central Michigan, Missouri and Pitt. Ohio is trying to bounce back from a fourth quarter meltdown at Temple last week. The Bobcats dominated the entire game but could not stretch their lead beyond 10-0. Temple came storming back in the final minutes to win 14-10 and cover of the three-point spread. This is only the second time this season that Ohio has been favored. The previous time the Bobcats were giving points was against Kent State when they covered and won 26-19.
The major ATS trends are in Buffalo's corner. They are 5-0 ATS in the last five games on the road and are 9-2 ATS when playing a team with a losing record like Ohio. The total is set at 50.5.
At 8:00 p.m. EST on ESPN2, a shootout is in store between Marshall (3-4 SU, 0-5-1 ATS) and Houston (4-3 SU, 2-4 ATS). Last season these teams combined for 63 points but still fell short of the posted total of 65.5. This year the total is at 63 at most sportsbooks. After getting off to a horrific 0-3 start this season against Division I-A teams, including two games where they were favored, Houston bounced back with three consecutive wins including a 41-24 upset at East Carolina as double-digit underdogs.
Marshall continues to be one of the worst teams ATS in college football. They started the season with promise, holding a 14-0 lead at Wisconsin but quickly fell apart losing 51-14 and not covering the 20-point spread. They have lost three consecutive games, failing to cover the line each time. Last week as 2.5-point favorites, they lost to UAB, 23-21. The week before on another primetime telecast, as three point underdogs, they were blown out by Cincinnati, 33-10.
Houston has ATS trouble of its own. The Cougars are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games dating back to last season. The under could have value again much like last season. In Conference USA games also dating back to last season, the under is 6-2 for both teams.