NASCAR: Sylvania 300 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 09/12/2008
Move over Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards, the rumors of two-time defending Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson's demise have been greatly exaggerated as No. 48 goes into New Hampshire Motor Speedway this Sunday at 1 p.m. EST for the Sylvania 300 off back-to-back wins and 40 bonus points behind the Chase leader Kyle Busch.
Last week rain washed out the debut of Joe Gibbs Racing 18-year-old racing prodigy, Joey Logano, who's slated to take over the No. 20 from Tony Stewart next year. Logano is set at 100/1 to win in his first Sprint Car race this weekend. It only took Logano three races to win his first Nationwide race this season so keep an eye out for the Home Depot 02 car on Sunday.
While NHMS is the shortest race of the season (by one mile) it will have the most cars with 46 entrants as Logano will be the fourth car that JGR fields in the Sylvania 300. Gamblers who like to trend spot (or wager on the winning manufacturer) should note that Chevrolet has won five out of the last six years and in the last eight years the only other manufacturer to win was Dodge. Complicating matters more is that a different driver has won the last seven races at NHMS and the last driver to have two wins here was Kurt Busch when he swept in 2004.
Who will win the Sylvania 300?
What makes the Chase so exciting for me is that with the points reset and a bit of good hard consistent driving it's possible any one of the 12 drivers in the Chase could win the Cup. Two weeks ago experts were lamenting the Busch and Edwards duel a two-car chase. The resurgence of Johnson and the cooling off of Busch (he hasn't won in five races!) shows how quickly things can change from week-to-week in NASCAR. Dominating the season can become just a footnote to a season if drivers aren't consistent for the next 10 races they're not going to win the Sprint Cup.
Just ask Jeff Gordon about last year. Gordon dominated the entire season until the Chase and Johnson won his third race in a row at Martinsville, positioning him to overtake Gordon and win his second Cup. This year all Johnson has to do is catch Busch, and considering Johnson's past history you could say that Johnson has Busch and Edwards just where he wants them as the Chase begins for the first of 10 playoff weekends.
This weekend it's hard not to back the No. 48 car. JJ has done everything right and charges into the Chase in third place in the standings, 10 points behind Carl Edwards who is in second place. Richmond was a crucial win for Johnson. Those 10 points and the 10-point deduction Edwards got at the beginning of the season is actually a 20-point swing. It's not unreasonable to think that Johnson will win his third race in a row.
Kyle Busch won this race in 2006 but hasn't had a whole lot of great finishes at NHMS. He has one win, three top-fives, and three top-10s with an average finish of 15.7; rather high when compared to Jimmie Johnson's 10.5 average finish or Denny Hamlin's amazing 6.8 average finish.
Speaking of the No. 11 driver, Hamlin's sported four top-five finishes in his last seven races and has led more than 700 laps this season, good enough for fourth best laps-led of all Chase drivers. Hamlin held off Jeff Gordon in last year's spring race at NHMS to win it. He might have to do the same this year.
Pick! Denny Hamlin
Solid Gold Picks
Sportsbook.com has listed many matchups on the Sylvania 300 this weekend but here is one that should cash. The No. 48 car took us to the woodshed as Johnson killed both our matchups against the +1.20 'dog Matt Kenseth. Kenseth was never in the race and the Pole sitter Johnson showed why he's the two-time defending Chase Champion. Last weekend Greg Biffle did more than just show up. Biffle started sixth on the grid and finished 14th while I backed Kasey Kahne (-1.15) who finished 19th and never really challenged Biffle. My one unit loss brings my record Over-the-Wall to 13-15 and +.15 units on the season after 26 of 36 Sprint Cup races completed. As of deadline Friday no lines had been hung for the Sylvania 300 matchups but if you get a chance to bet against Dale Earnhardt Jr., I would. Winning at NHMS takes synchronicity between crew chief, pit crew and driver. Right now the discord between Junior and Tony Eury Jr. is deafening and perhaps Junior needs a Senior to help him get back to victory lane.
Long Odds Pick
For the next 10 races you'll get the shortest win odds on the 12 Chase drivers. But it does not follow that only one of the 12 Chase drivers will actually win the race. I am backing the only driver to win at New Hampshire and then went on to win the title in 2004. The elder Busch has done well at Loudon in the past, and even back-doored a win at the rain shortened spring race. Kurt has three wins, five top-fives and six top-10 finishes. At this price Kurt Busch is worth a look who knows maybe the Penske Racing Dodge can make it rain again.
Pick! Kurt Busch, No. 2, (40/1)
Sylvania 300 Odds
New Hampshire International Speedway
Sunday, Sept 14th (1:00 p.m. EST)
AJ Allmendinger100/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Bill Elliott 100/1
Bobby LaBonte100/1
Brian Vickers 60/1
Carl Edwards 10/1
Carl Long 150/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Chad McCumbee 150/1
Clint Bowyer 12/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 8/1
Dave Blaney 100/1
David Gilliland 100/1
David Ragan 30/1
David Reutimann 100/1
Denny Hamlin 6/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 20/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Jeff Burton 20/1
Jeff Gordon 12/1
Jimmie Johnson 5/1
Joe Nemechek 100/1
Joey Logano 100/1
Johnny Sauter 150/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 100/1
Kasey Kahne 25/1
Ken Schrader 150/1
Kevin Harvick 10/1
Kurt Busch 40/1
Kyle Busch 6/1
Martin Truex Jr. 25/1
Matt Kenseth 25/1
Michael McDowell 150/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Patrick Carpentier 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Robby Gordon 100/1
Ryan Newman 40/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Riggs 150/1
Tony Raines 150/1
Tony Stewart 6/1
Travis Kvapil 100/1
*odds courtesy of Bodog