Santa Anita Main Track Poses Handicapping Challenge
by Greg Melikov - 10/15/2008
Eight of the 14 Breeders' Cup races pose a handicapping puzzle for horseplayers.
First, what do you look for since this is the first time in BC's 25-year history that those races previously staged on the dirt will be run over a synthetic surface?
Secondly, is Santa Anita's new Pro-Ride main track similar to other synthetic ovals such as the Cushion Track and Polytrack?
The California track is unique because last fall's Oak Tree meeting at Santa Anita marked the debut of the Cushion Track.
Then during the early portion of the regular Santa Anita meet drainage problems caused by heavy rains forced management to make an adjustment. Pro-Ride Racing materials were blended with the Cushion Track and conditions improved.
Then the surface was replaced with Pro-Ride before the Oak Tree meeting started Sept. 24 - one month before the first of two BC programs on Oct. 24.
Here's a look at how three of the seven distances in BC races on all three synthetic surfaces compare over the past 13 months, according to Brisnetnet.com.
During the 2007 Oak Tree meeting Sept. 24-Nov. 4, after the Cushion Track was installed, 31 percent of 67 races at six furlongs were won wire-to-wire.
From Dec. 26 through last April 20 during the Santa Anita meeting, when the surface was a blend of Pro-Ride and the Cushion Track, 18 percent of 130 contests went to horses scoring on the front end.
This year from Sept. 24 to Oct. 11, only 12 percent of 33 winners led at every call. However, the number jumped to 27 percent during the past 11 races ending Oct. 11.
In all three instances, the best running style was stalking.
At a mile, 11 percent of 28 races last fall at Oak Tree were wire jobs. At Santa Anita's meeting, 29 percent of 55 winners led all the way. So far, 18 percent of 11 winners led at every call.
Closers did best at the first two meetings while stalking is the most successful running style so far this fall.
At 1 1/16 miles, 12 percent of the winners in 26 races last fall were on top at every call. The number rose to 19 percent in 74 races at Santa Anita. Closers were tops. So far, only 5 percent of 20 winners have triumphed at Oak Tree. Stalkers are performing best.
During the first two weeks, horses on the outside aren't at a disadvantage, according to Brisnet.com. That's because footing on synthetic tracks is just as good on the far outside as it is on the rail. Unlike dirt tracks where far outside paths might not even be groomed, synthetic ovals are uniform.
"If you go to the front with no one in front of you, the rail is as good as any path," Dick Powell writes. "If you are sitting the pocket and getting kickback, the rider might swing to the outside sooner than wait for an inside opening."
One expert suggests we handicap races the same way we do for dirt or turf - analyze all the angles. This pro says early speed doesn't do as well on most all synthetic surfaces, stalkers perform almost as good as on dirt and closers do better.
I agree with several racing columnists that say pay attention to horses that do well on synthetic surfaces. In addition, consider class, jockey-trainer combinations and horses that did well at Santa Anita during the past three meetings.