We're back again at a look for spots where the books are sending a message that seems to be encouraging the public to keep doing what they are doing. Often times that's a good time for smart bettors to do the opposite. It's hasn't been a great start to the season for the Public Action Report, but it will get better as things go along and the base of knowledge of the season increases. Here are the games that fit our criteria (more than 70 percent of action on one team, line moving away from them) this week. Strangely enough, there are only two games this week - one each from college and the pros. That's by far the lowest we have ever see in this report, and it reflects the general feeling I get about this week - it is harder to get excited about than the ones we have seen so far. Nonetheless, the two games:

Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, Sept. 21, 1:00 pm) - The public is overwhelmingly on the Panthers - 77 percent of bets have been placed on them. That kind of action should see their odds getting less attractive, but the opposite is true. The line has moved off of the key number of three to the current 3.5. This move is especially significant given the importance of that key number - 3.5 gives the Panthers a much bigger chance of covering than three would. It's not surprising that the public is on Carolina. They have been playing surprisingly well against decent competition so far, and now they get Steve Smith, one of the top five receivers in the league, back on the squad after his suspension. Minnesota has struggled and their all-World running back, Adrian Peterson, is nursing a hamstring injury.

The books clearly aren't seeing it that way, though. Minnesota came into the season with high hopes, and those have evaporated thanks to a defense that hasn't stood up when it mattered and quarterbacking that just hasn't been good enough. They've made the change that matters, though - Tarvaris Jackson is out and Gus Frerotte is in. Frerote isn't a superstar, but the former Tulsa star has been around the block about a hundred times, and he isn't likely to hurt the team. That would make him an improvement. Last year, Frerotte was with the Rams. They were lousy just like they are now. They hadn't covered in their first four when Frerotte was called on to start. The didn't win game five, but they played by far their best game to date, and the covered their first spread. The books know that, and know that Gus will be a calming influence for a team that desperately needs it.

In the end, it comes down to this. If you had told the Carolina team before the season that they would start 2-1 they probably would have been pretty happy with that. Telling the Vkes that they would be 0-3 would have caused a riot. Minnesota has way more on the line, they are at home, and they won't be handicapped by their quarterback. It's not a bad thing, then, that the books seem to be saying to take a hard look at Minnesota.

Alabama Crimson Tide (-8.5) at Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday, Sept. 20, 12:30 p.m.) - The public loves Nick Saban, but the books don't fear that love. More than three-quarters of bets placed have been on the Tide, yet the line has dropped from nine to 8.5. That's not a big drop, nor one around significant numbers, but it is still noteworthy.

This is the battle of big-time college coaches who couldn't cut it in the NFL. Both Saban and Bobby Petrino have their teams undefeated so far. The difference is how they have got there. Alabama has looked dominating in their three games, shutting their opponents down with defense and scoring virtually at will. The extent of the offense isn't something we have been familiar with in recent years from Alabama. Arkansas, on the other hand, has barely squeaked by against less than inspiring opposition - UL-Monroe and Western Illinois. Based on that, the public's opinion seems justified.

So why do the books seem to be hinting that Arkansas is worth a look? The list of reasons could include that they are at home, that Petrino and the team are going to be fired up for their first real test, that the crowd will be insane for this one whereas they have found it hard to care about the first two, and that Arkansas has had two weeks to prepare for this game. Arkansas' offense also looks solid when compared to Alabama's - Casey Dick leads John Parker Wilson in the key stat of yards per attempt by a significant margin. Those are all reasons to believe that this one might be closer than expected, and that Arkansas is worthy of consideration.