The Pep Boys Auto 500 defending champion, Jimmie Johnson, comes into Atlanta Motor Speedway 149 points ahead of the closest chaser, Greg Biffle, and with three races until Homestead, JJ is locked into winning his third consecutive Chase Cup. If Johnson manages this feat he will be only the second NASCAR driver to accomplish this historic milestone. But is this milestone the same as when Yarborough did it?

Gamblers should note that last weekend's win for the No. 48 car could be significant because after his win at Martinsville last year, Johnson burned rubber to three more wins in a row at Atlanta, Texas, and Phoenix. Not that he needed them to win the Sprint Cup, but high-speed wins are addictive and it appears that in three out of the final four races, Johnson is the driver bringing the spike.

Who will win the Pep Boys Auto 500?

Apparently the 10-race playoff system known as the BCS..er, I mean, the Chase for the Sprint Cup, was instituted to bring back the excitement of NASCAR (I never thought it had left). Bring the fans back into the fold by rewarding the top 12 drivers of the season with a virtual points reset and giving each team a 1-in-12 shot to win the title each season. Excuse me while I yawn. YAWN.

Over the past two years the Chase has rapidly degenerated into Chasing No. 48 the last four races of the season. How quickly Kyle Busch's name has fallen from everyone's lips. For two-thirds of the season Busch dominated NASCAR; prompting the national media to proclaim that nobody could beat Busch this year. But thanks to the points reset and some really bad luck Busch's Chase quest finished three races ago. That said, back when Busch was winning, he dominated Atlanta in March, but given the way things have gone for Busch in the Chase I am not going to back him to win against the momentum of Hendrick Motor Sports.

Looking at the traditional points system Johnson would still hold the lead, but it would be only 113 points over Carl Edwards (currently fourth in the Chase, -198 pts) and 183 points in front of Kyle Busch (currently 12th in the Chase, -445 points). It's clear that NASCAR got it wrong revamping the points system in the Chase format.

Twice in the past four years of the Chase format Jeff Gordon, the traditional points leader, lost the Championship. It's ridiculous that Busch, who dominated NASCAR for most of the season, is in 12th place rather than third, but that is the way when you take something that isn't broken and try to fix it.

Certainly it's a lot more exciting watching to see if Johnson will finish 33rd or worse in the next few races to give Greg Biffle (-149 points) or Jeff Burton (-152) a shot at competing for the Sprint Cup. Yeah, no fan of NASCAR would want to see Johnson battle Busch and Edwards for the Sprint Cup this year. It's a lot better when you know the outcome of the season five races from the end.

Watch out for the weather during qualifiers this weekend since the past two races have been washed out and Johnson has defaulted as the pole-sitter. If this happens for a third consecutive week keep in mind that 14 times the pole-sitter has won the race.

Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48 (9/2)

Pep Boys Auto 500 Solid Gold Picks

Long Odds Value Pick

I am not sure if Tony Stewart should ever be considered a long shot since Smoke is always a threat to win when he gets behind the wheel. Stewart ended his 43-race winless streak at Talladega and has a huge break-up with Joe Gibbs Racing to get through before he takes ownership in 2009 of Stewart-Haas Racing. Before this all happens, Stewart still needs to finish out the 2008 season and his win at 'Dega shows that Smoke is not a 'lame duck' driver for JGR. Stewart has also done well at AMS with two wins, eight top-fives and 12 top-10s. Stewart last won at AMS in 2006 and is currently in 8th place in the Chase standings.

Pick! Tony Stewart, No. 20, (10/1)

Clint Bowyer, 07, (-1.15) vs. David Ragan, No. 6, (-1.15)

This is one matchup that leaped off the card. With only a few races left in the season I have to be very careful and pick my spots to make up a rapidly growing deficit in my weekly NASCAR picks. My record Over-the-Wall now stands at 14-17, -5.35 units on the season after 32 of 36 Sprint Cup races completed. Eager to cash a wager this weekend I see there are six reasons why I like Richard Childress Racing's No. 07 car to finish ahead of the No. 6 car. Other than Johnson, Bowyer has quietly been one of the most consistent drivers to finish at Atlanta in the top-ten. In fact in the last three races at AMS Bowyer has finished in sixth place each time. Ragan finished the March race 23rd, and in his previous two races he finished 33rd both times. If you are looking for another reason to back the 07 car, Bowyer has been running really well for RCR finishing in the top-10 three times in the last five races. For me this makes Bowyer a huge money line play.

Pick! Clint Bowyer, 07, (-1.15), for five units.

Pep Boys Auto 500 Odds
Sun, Oct 26th 1:45pm (EST) Atlanta Motor Speedway, GA

AJ Allmendinger100/1
Bill Elliott 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 20/1
Bryan Clauson200/1
Carl Edwards 4/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Chad McCumbee 100/1
Clint Bowyer 30/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12/1
Dave Blaney 100/1
David Gilliland 100/1
David Ragan 30/1
David Reutimann 100/1
Denny Hamlin 20/1
Elliott Sadler 50/1
Greg Biffle 8/1
Jamie McMurray 50/1
Jeff Burton 20/1
Jeff Gordon 12/1
Jimmie Johnson 9/2
Joe Nemechek 100/1
Joey Logano 100/1
Johnny Sauter 200/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 100/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Kevin Harvick 25/1
Ken Schrader 200/1
Kurt Busch 50/1
Kyle Busch 11/2
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Mark Martin 25/1
Martin Truex Jr. 40/1
Matt Kenseth 12/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Robby Gordon 100/1
Ryan Newman 75/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Riggs 100/1
Scott Speed100/1
Tony Raines 100/1
Tony Stewart 10/1
Travis Kvapil 100/1