MLB Season Preview: NL East
by Robert Ferringo - 03/29/2008
Here are some picks and predictions for the National League East:
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
ATLANTA BRAVES
2007 Record: 84-78 (third)
Odds to win NL Pennant: 7.5/1
Odds to win World Series: 20/1
Wins Over/Under: 87.0
Strengths: Atlanta boasts what may be the National League's best lineup. Guys like Kelly Johnson and Matt Diaz are even better than you think. If Tom Glavine can be a .500 pitcher and if Mike Hampton can stay healthy (it's a contract year) then this rotation becomes more formidable as well.
Weaknesses: I don't think Glavine-Smoltz-Hampton will stay healthy. This team also has a gaping void in centerfield and the hurlers are going to find out just how many runs Andruw Jones saved for this team. Also, Atlanta's Closer Curse surpasses even that of the Mets.
Player to Watch: Yunel Escobar, SS. Atlanta is so high on this kid that they practically gave Edgar Renteria away. Escobar has the makings of a star and followed up last season's excellent Fall with a fantastic Spring. He, along with their CF and Hampton, is the X-factor.
Outlook: I like a bounceback year from Atlanta. Last season there was uncertainty from the top (new ownership) down. They enter the season with a lot of confidence and a powerful set of sticks. Look for the continued development out of guys like Franceour and McCann, and a big year out of Mark Teixeira.
NEW YORK METS
2007 Record: 88-74 (second)
Odds to win NL Pennant: 2.5/1
Odds to win World Series: 5/1
Wins Over/Under: 94.0
Strengths: When healthy, the Mets rotation is the best in the National League and one of the best in the Majors. Johan and Pedro are as nasty a 1-2 punch as there is. They have three elite players - Wright, Reyes, Beltran - and a versatile lineup.
Weaknesses: Any time you have to start a writeup with, "When healthy" it means that they aren't staying healthy. Their corner outfield spots are very weak and Carlos Delgado is a dead stick at first base. The Mets also didn't shore up a leaky bullpen.
Player to Watch: Ryan Church, RF. Some guys can handle playing in New York. Some can't. The Mets gave up talented (but troubled) Lastings Milledge to get Church. Now we need to see if he can handle the pressure.
Outlook: My feelings on this Mets team are well documented. I do not think they are better than they were at the start of 2006 or 2007 so I don't expect them to surpass those teams. Best-case scenario: everyone stays healthy and they split the difference of '06 and '07 with 91 wins.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
2007 Record: 89-73 (first)
Odds to win NL Pennant: 8/1
Odds to win World Series: 22/1
Wins Over/Under: 86.5
Strengths: The top of Philadelphia's order is elite. They have three MVP-caliber players in Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins. They also have the swagger of a team trying to defend its division title.
Weaknesses: Besides Cole Hamels, who threw a ton of innings last year, this team still doesn't have the pitching to be a front-runner. The loss of Aaron Rowand will also hurt a lot more than people realize. He was the OF leader and a really veteran stick in the middle of that order.
Player to Watch: Shane Victorino, OF. This kid is Philadelphia ball: gritty, tough, and clutch. And he wears white shoes, to boot. Now he needs to step up in Rowand's absence.
Outlook: Riddle me this: if the Mets hadn't collapsed last September, would anyone expect the 2008 Phillies to do anything beyond what they normally do? No. They lucked into a division title in 2007, but I expect them to go right back to being the inconsistent, underachieving Phils that we've come to know and love.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
2007 Record: 73-89 (fourth)
Odds to win NL Pennant: 75/1
Odds to win World Series: 150/1
Wins Over/Under: 72.0
Strengths: They have some very good young talent on this roster. Guys like Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, and Willie Harris could really give this team some energy. Mix in a new ballpark and there could be some buzz here. The bullpen also may be the best in the division.
Weaknesses: Their starting pitching isn't good enough to really compete with the top three teams in the division. There are also a ton of head cases on this roster and that could make for a volatile locker room when things aren't going well. Also, can a guy like Dmitri Young repeat his career year from 2007? Probably not.
Player to Watch: Lastings Milledge, OF. The Mets dumped him because he has his head up his ass. But the kid can play and will get a chance to spread his wings in Washington.
Outlook: I'm kind of digging the Nationals this year and I feel like their organization is headed in the right direction. They won't compete for the division title, but this team will definitely have a say in who wins it. That is, as long as the chemistry experiment doesn't blow.
FLORIDA MARLINS
2007 Record: 71-91 (fifth)
Odds to win NL Pennant: 75/1
Odds to win World Series: 150/1
Wins Over/Under: 69.0
Strengths: Florida just keeps on keeping on. They have a great farm system and always seem to churn out talent.
Weaknesses: They let all of their good, young arms get away and now they are left with Mark Hendrickson and a bunch of retreads. It also has to be a bit demoralizing to see the organization give up their best players year after year.
Player to Watch: Andrew Miller, P. He was a key piece of the Willis-Cabrera deal and showed signs in 2006. But he's been dreadful this spring. They definitely need him to develop for that trade to be worth anything.
Outlook: This team is awful. But Florida has a system and it has worked for them. They have won more World Series over the past 15 years than the rest of their division combined, so they're doing something right.
For more info on Robert's members picks, check out his Insider Page here.