Can Wild Cards Rule Supreme? Odds Are Against Them
by Greg Melikov - 11/27/2008
Wild card teams over the years haven't done particular well in the National Football League playoffs since the format was adopted in 1970 when the two conferences were realigned into three divisions each.
Of the nine teams that advanced to the Super Bowl, only five won, including Oakland in '80 and Denver in '97. However, three have ruled supreme in the 21st Century: Baltimore, '00; Pittsburgh, '05; and the Giants, '07.
The NFC has more teams alive and in contention to make the playoffs early next year as wild cards, including three in the East Division.
The Cowboys visit Pittsburgh on Dec. 7 and host division-leading New York a week later hoping to avenge a 35-14 loss on Nov. 2. Dallas closes out against Philadelphia, which needs to reverse losses to all three-division foes in December.
Washington, all even with Dallas, has a slightly weaker schedule. The Redskins must defeat the Giants on Sunday. Then the Skins play Baltimore, Cincinnati, Philadelphia and San Francisco.
Carolina has an equal 8-3 record in the South Division with Tampa Bay, but is tied with Atlanta for a wild-card berth after being crushed by the Buccaneers earlier in the season, 27-3.
The Panthers and the Falcons, also a 25-9 loser to the Bucs, play Tampa Bay next month. Carolina has a rougher road ahead, journeying to Green Bay on Sunday, then hosting the Bucs and Denver before hitting the road to the Giants and divisional foe Saints.
Atlanta takes on San Diego on Sunday, followed by New Orleans and Tampa Bay before facing Minnesota, a game back in the wild-card race, and St. Louis.
The Saints, also a game behind in the wild-card race, attempts to sweep the series against Bucs on Sunday. New Orleans also hopes to avenge losses against the Panthers and Falcons in December.
In the North, the Vikings and Packers are longshots as wild cards. Frankly, they and Chicago need to win the division.
In the AFC, there are five teams with a legitimate chance at making the wild-card round. Three are in the East Division: New England, one game ahead of the Dolphins and Bills.
The Patriots, even with Miami in divisional play, close out the regular season on Dec. 28 at Buffalo hoping to sweep that series. Their toughest game is Sunday hosting the North Division leading Steelers. They also play sub-par Oakland and Seattle.
Buffalo, after losing to all three divisional rivals, hosts Miami and New England before heading to Jets. The Dolphins play three weak sisters, St. Louis, San Francisco and Kansas City, before closing out against the Jets.
In the South Division, Indianapolis has perhaps the softest schedule before closing out with leading Tennessee: Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit and Jacksonville.
In the North, Baltimore has several competitive contests: sandwiched between the Bengals and Jaguars: Washington, Pittsburgh and Dallas.
All in all, the odds for wild cards winning the Super Bowl are high. But you never know. We shall see.