NFL Coaches on the Hot Seat
by Trevor Whenham - 09/04/2008
If you are an NFL bettor and you can't find a bet you like then you aren't looking hard enough. There is a ridiculous number of prop bets available on the league, and they come in all shapes and sizes - short term, long term, low risk or high. A lot of the props don't necessarily make a lot of sense as a bet, but that doesn't mean that they aren't interesting to consider, and maybe to throw a few bucks at. One of my favorites at this time of year are the props offering odds on whether current coaches will still have a job with their current team next year. Bodog has several available. Here's a look:
Lane Kiffin, Oakland Raiders - Not surprisingly, no is favored here at -125. I'm surprised it's not even lower than that. Kiffin and Al Davis clearly don't see eye to eye, the coach was almost out the door last year, and he team stands little chance with a rookie QB of being good enough to save Kiffin's job. The more interesting bet would be to see if Kiffin quit or was fired first. I expect to see Kiffin back in college at the helm of his own team next year. Or he might become an assistant in the pros. I just really don't see him in Oakland.
Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears - How much leeway does a Super Bowl berth buy you? We'll find out with Smith. Two years ago he led his team to the big game, but things haven't been pretty since. The team was 7-9 last year, and that same record would have to be seen as a reasonable success this year. Smith has proven to be totally incapable of developing a quarterback, and that's certainly not going to change. Smith is popular with his administration, and that likely accounts for the favoritism of the opinion that he will be back next year. The odds seem out of whack, though. He's at -170 to stay, leaving him at +140 to go. I think the value is in the latter at those prices.
Dick Jauron, Buffalo Bills - Jauron has been in Buffalo for two years, and he's led his team to a 7-9 record both years. Though he will have to do better than that to stick around, I don't think he needs dramatic improvement to stick around. The team has gone through four coaches in the decade since Marv Levy left, so I think that they are hungry for some stability. Buffalo should be improved, and that improvement will be enough for another year for this regime. Oddsmakes agree - he is at -120 to stay around.
Tony Dungy, Indianapolis Colts - Unlike almost everyone else on this list, Dungy is the one who will get to make the decision. I really don't see him coming back. He thought about his future almost as much as Brett Favre in the offseason, and he even went as far as to name his replacement. Dungy has nothing left to accomplish in Indy, and the current team is on a gradual downslide. I don't think he has the energy left to rebuild again, so I think he'll move on. He might not be out of football for good, but he'll take a Cowher-esque break. The odds are -140 that he'll leave.
Rod Marinelli, Detroit Lions - If Marinelli can coach somewhat like the guy who led his team to a 6-2 start last year then he is a lock to stick around. If the guy who went 1-7 down the stretch is the real Rod, though, then he's outta here. It's hard to tell which one is which, though he doesn't have a significant talent upgrade to work with. It's a bit of a coin flip. Oddsmakers don't have any better an idea - both the yes and no sides are at -115.
John Fox, Carolina Panthers - There's a bit of value here. The odds slightly favor the opinion that he will be gone. I'm not buying it. I'm fairly bullish on this team as long as Jake Delhomme is healthy, and I think he can do more than enough to stick around for another year. Carolina is nothing if not loyal to their coaches.
Mike Nolan, San Francisco - I like Nolan, and I think that he's a good coach doing a decent job. That being said, I think it will be time for a change in San Francisco. I think the Niners might be decent this year, but not as good as they should be after four years, lots of high draft picks, and some free agent spending. Unless Nolan can make the playoffs, and he won't, I think a change is inevitable and a good thing. Nolan deserves and will get another shot somewhere. My pessimism isn't shared, though - Nolan is at -120 to stay, and -110 to go.
Scott Linehan, St. Louis Rams - The Rams are 11-21 under Linehan, and seem destined for another lousy year. Frankly, it's shocking that he has lasted this long. He's heavily favored, at -150, to be on his way out.
Wade Phillips, Dallas Cowboys - This is another coin flip, and it will have nothing to do with the regular season. If the team gets to the Super Bowl, or at least loses a close NFC Championship, then Phillips will likely be back. If not, then this becomes Jason Garrett's team.
Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles - This is a tough one. It's hard not to respect Reid and the job he has done in Philadelphia. On the other hand, unless this is a surprisingly strong year, it might be best for everyone involved if he had a change of scenery. He has been there since 1999, and the team's progress has stagnated in recent years. They are decent, but not great. Reid's personal life has been a mess, and he doesn't seem to have the same passion for the game that he did have. A break would work wonders, I think. If you believe the odds, though, then he is very unlikely to get one - he is at -170 to stick around.