NBA Western Conference Betting Preview: Southwest Division Predictions
by Robert Ferringo and Nolan Sinclair - 10/27/2008
When one thinks of the Southwest Division they could compare it to the NFC East in Football, or the A.L. East in baseball. Out of the five teams in the division four of them finished at least 20 games over .500. That is insane! How in the world do you win a game when every other game you play not only a division rival, but a legit NBA Title contender?
I will tell you... you beat the hell out of Memphis each time that you play them, that's how!
With the exception of Memphis, the rest of the Southwest Division is at no less than 20-to-1 odds to win the NBA Championship. That said, it seems as though only two of the Big Four truly went out and improved their teams this off-season. New Orleans got better with age as Chris Paul and David West are a year older and James Posey brings in veteran playoff experience. Houston countered by adding Ron Artest, his closet full of baggage, and Brent Barry. The addition of Barry will help this team more than people think.
(In an interesting subplot, the Rockets also added Frederic Weis. This gentleman is the single reason that the Knicks have been doomed since that fateful day when they had the chance to draft the aforementioned Artest but instead drafted Weis, who never came over to the states to play. However, besides submarining the Knicks, Weis is also responsible for the single greatest basketball highlight in history. Well, I'd say Vince Carter was MORE responsible, but Weis played a key role. In case you were unsure, I have a deep loathing for Mr. Frederic Weis.)
The Mavs and the Spurs didn't do much to help their cause either, and I think that both could be vulnerable. The Spurs added Roger Mason but the loss of Barry will hurt more than Mason can help. The Mavs didn't add or lose anyone of significance, but Josh Howard completely lost his mind. He decided that he doesn't "celebrate" the National Anthem. So let me get this straight…he doesn't celebrate the National Anthem, but he likes to sit down for magazine article interviews right before the playoffs and let everyone know that he smokes weed. I think he needs to spend more time worrying about not disappearing during the playoffs and less about his social status. Lastly, you have Memphis. And last will be exactly where they finish.
Here is Doc's Sports Southwest Division preview:
New Orleans Hornets:
2007-08 Record: 56-26
2008-09 NBA Title Odds: 7/1
2008-09 over/under win total: 52.5
2008-09 wins projection: Over
Key Additions: James Posey
Key Losses: none
The New Orleans Hornets were one of the best teams in the NBA not only in record, but to watch. The way Chris Paul can dominate a game takes me back to when the point guard was the most important player on the floor. Paul and David West have provided New Orleans with a great one-two punch for years to come. Between the two of them they average 41 points, 12 rebounds, and 13 assists a game. NICE! The Hornets also went out and added James Posey this off-season. He is slowly becoming the new version of Robert Horry. "Big Shot Jim?" Doesn't sound as good, but he will fit in nicely in New Orleans. Look for the Hornets to repeat as Southwest Division champs.
San Antonio Spurs:
2007-08 Record: 56-26
2008-09 NBA Title Odds: 8/1
2008-09 over/under win total: 52.5
2008-09 wins projection: Under
Key Additions: Roger Mason
Key Losses: Brent Barry, and Manu Ginobili (out until mid-December with ankle injury)
The Spurs are doing their best to escape the bloody wrath of Father Time. He has yet to sink his teeth in, but the Spurs are lead by Ginobili, Tim Duncan, Bruce Bowen, Tony Parker, Michael Finley, and Kurt Thomas. Five of those six players are at least 32 years old. Parker, the "young one", may have babies on his mind as I recently found out (from reading my wife's US magazine on the toilet) that Eva Longoria-Parker wants to have children. On top of all of this the Spurs brass couldn't talk Ginobili into not playing in the Olympics and taking the time to heal, and now he is out until mid-December with an ankle injury. If the Spurs play poorly early on, it might be curtains for them in the crowed Western Conference. Playoffs…yes, Champions…no.
Houston Rockets:
2007-08 Record: 55-27
2008-09 NBA Title Odds: 8/1
2008-09 over/under win total: 53.5
2008-09 wins projection: Under
Key Additions: Ron Artest and Brent Barry
Key Losses: none
The Rockets along with the Blazers and the 76ers are the trendy picks for this upcoming season. With the additions of Artest and Barry the Rockets boast a deep and talented team. However, this team is made up of people that spend A LOT of time sitting on the benches in a suit rather than a jersey. If you take a gander at Nba.com you will see that the Rockets already have seven players hurt. That is more than any other team in the league. Tracy McGrady missed 20 games last year, and Yao Ming has missed at least 25 games a year for the last three. Add to that Artest, who hasn't played 70 games since the 2003-04 season and you see what I mean. This Rockets team has the talent to win the NBA Championship, but I just don't see this team staying healthy. Injuries - and some of the worst karma in the NBA (and that's saying something) - will keep this team from winning 54 games.
Dallas Mavericks:
2007-08 Record: 51-31
2008-09 NBA Title Odds: 20/1
2008-09 over/under win total: 48.5
2008-09 wins projection: Over
Key Additions: none
Key Losses: none
I predict Dallas to finish fourth again in the Southwest Division but I see 50 wins out of this aging team. Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, and Jason Terry are still three legit NBA stars and Jason Kidd still knows how to play the game regardless of his age. The Mavs bench is filled with guys that are solid NBA vets that provide good minutes, led by Jerry Stackhouse. And the one huge positive factor for their long-term prospects (in terms of a futures bet) is that if they are at all close when the trade deadline rolls around you know that Mark Cuban will do everything possible to get his team to the playoffs. You have to realize how dedicated he is to winning even though he owns a basketball team and not a hockey team. But why in the hell does he wear a hockey jersey to the games? I'm rambling. Taking all this into consideration, I see the Mavs as (barely) a 50-win team for the ninth straight year.
Memphis Grizzlies:
2007-08 Record: 22-60
2008-09 NBA Title Odds: 350/1 (Last in the NBA)
2008-09 over/under win total: 23.5
2008-09 wins projection: Under
Key Additions: OJ Mayo and Marco Jaric
Key Losses: Mike Miller
The Grizzlies won 22 games last year and that was with Pau Gasol for 40 of them. This Grizzlies team did draft the talented OJ Mayo, but his scoring ability won't make up for the loss of Mike Miller and his headband. The Grizz are incredibly athletic but they have very few all-around basketball players. Look for the Grizz to finish in the basement of the Southwest Division for the second straight year, and to finish with less wins than last year. Note to Memphis: try to move back to Vancouver, that way no one cares if you are any good. And at least you would have Universal Health Care.
For more information on Robert's NBA picks, check out his Insider Page here.