MLB Home Clubs Winning at Record Rate
by Robert Ferringo - 07/15/2008
It's no secret that Major League Baseball teams have experienced unprecedented success at home this year. Home teams in the MLB are winning nearly 58 percent of all games played this year. If that mark stood it would be one highest clips in the last 75 years. The record for home winning percentage was set in 1931, when clubs won .582 percent of their games at home. The lat time since then that the league has topped .570 was back in 1978, when clubs took a W in .573 percent of their contests.
The question then becomes whether or not the first "half" of the year was a statistical anomaly that will correct itself or whether or not teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, Braves, and Twins will continue to win at a record rates at home. And even if these teams do continue to win at astronomical rates, will bettors be able to turn a profit wagering on them with what promises to be excessive juice?
The Major League record for home wins in a season is 65 set by the 1961 New York Yankees and the National League mark is 64 set by the 1975 Cincinnati Reds. The last team to top the 60-win mark at home was the Yankees in 1998. However, there are presently two teams (Boston and Chicago) that are on pace to match the 1998 Yanks with 62 victories.
Including these record-pacing teams there are currently seven teams on pace to top 50 home wins this season, which would match last year's total.
Home team dominance has been headed upwards for the last six years, and there has been an average of six teams to top the 50-win plateau over that span. Yet, before that there were never more than four 50-win home teams and just 14 squads that topped that mark between 1988 and 2001. I believe that at least one of the teams on pace for 50 won't reach its mark and I also feel as if there are a couple teams that you can turn a tidy profit on - by betting against them in every one of their remaining home games.
Below is a look at the seven teams that are currently on pace for more than 50 home victories this season. I've included the amount of home wins they are on pace for, their home record over their last 20 games, the average price they have been posted at as a home favorite, and the record that this team must achieve in order to break even if their average price remains the same. I don't believe that any of these clubs will see their prices remain static. And as the juice inflates that makes it harder and harder to reach their break-even record.
Here is what we've got:
Boston Red Sox (36-11)
On pace for: 62 wins
Record in L20 home games: 14-6
Average price as a favorite in L20: -176
Home record need to break even: 22-12
Outlook: The Red Sox are on pace to match New York's mark of 62 wins and are the clear-cut best home team in baseball. They own a .644 winning percentage in Fenway since the start of the 2003 season and this year will mark the fifth time in the last six years that they crack the 50-win plateau at home. The problem with betting the Sox in Beantown is the price, as you're laying almost two bills every time they take the field. They are worth it. The Sox have swept their opponent in six of their 15 home series this year - including three four-game sweeps - so you can't chase against them. But instead, a run line wager could be the way to go. Only one-third of their wins this year (12) were by one run. Also, the Sox bounce back. They are 8-2 at home after a home loss and only two of those follow-up wins weren't by two runs or more.
Tampa Bay Rays (36-14)
On pace for: 58 wins
Record in L20 home games: 15-5 (1-0 as a dog)
Average price as a favorite in L20: -151
Home record need to break even: 19-11
Outlook: Even though their stadium is about 35 minutes away from any type of civilization the Rays are starting to draw a crowd, which will only make this club tougher at home. Tampa has four of its first six series in Tropicana to start the second half and I see no reason why they shouldn't continue to play well on their turf. But here is a trend that will not continue: the Rays are 15-1 in their last 16 home games against divisional opponents. I'm looking for those numbers to even out and for A.L. East teams to start stealing games in Florida.
Chicago White Sox (32-13)
On pace for: 58
Record in L20 home games: 15-5 (1-0 as a dog)
Average price as a favorite in L20: -147
Home record need to break even: 21-15
Outlook: The Southsiders keep slugging away, rocking home runs while stealing improbable home wins. The Sox will top the 50-win mark at home but they aren't going to threaten 60. The good news is that they still have 36 home games left, most of any team on this list. They are No. 5 in runs scored and No. 2 in ERA and they show few signs of slowing. I say 'few' because I think the plethora of comeback wins they needed in late June and early July could be a red flag. Also, I don't know if you can expect John Danks and Gavin Floyd to continue to produce at the level they have. The Sox have been one of the most profitable teams in the Majors, so I know I won't be fading them any time soon.
Minnesota Twins (32-18)
On pace for: 52 wins
Record in L20 home games: 16-4 (5-2 as a dog)
Average price as a favorite in L20: -130
Home record need to break even: 18-13
Outlook: Look for Minnesota's home prices to increase, but not go through the roof. The public still just doesn't trust their unproven stable of arms, even though the offense has been what is carrying this team. The Twins are set up perfectly to play on turf and their washed out venue is still a nightmare for teams that aren't used to the Metrodome. Four of Minny's first six home series are against non-divisional opponents, and I can see the Twins continuing to clean up as a moderately priced home chalk. I definitely see this club reaching 50 wins.
Atlanta Braves (30-18)
On pace for: 51 wins
Record in L20 home games: 9-11 (0-2 as a dog)
Average price as a favorite in L20: -145
Home record need to break even: 19-14
Outlook: Injuries and ineffectiveness have taken its toll on the Braves. Atlanta has been one of the best home bets in the MLB over the last 20 years but I think that the second half they will become a sinkhole. As the Braves slide further from contention, fan interest in this fickle town will wane more and more. Also, if Atlanta turns into sellers at the trade deadline the attention will shift solely on the start of college football (which usually happens anyway). I don't believe that the Braves will win 50 games at home.
Chicago Cubs (37-12)
On pace for: 61 wins
Record in L20 home games: 16-3
Average price as a favorite in L20: -158
Home record need to break even: 20-12
Outlook: The Cubbies have led a charmed existence over the past three-plus months and the buzz they are getting from the Wrigley Faithful is second to none. Hidden inside their 74-percent home winning percentage is the fact that they are one of the best day teams in baseball. They are third in hitting during the sunny hours and they own a solid 28-18 mark during the daylight. Until someone finds a way to stem that trend then the Cubs should continue to cash as a heavy chalk. And, up to this point. -158 as an average is very respectable.
Milwaukee Brewers (31-17)
On pace for: 52 wins
Record in L20 home games: 13-7 (1-1 as a dog)
Average price as a favorite in L20: -158
Home record need to break even: 21-12
Outlook: For whatever reason, Wisconsin teams dominate at home. Whether it's the Packers, the Badgers, or the Bucks, teams from the Cheese State are always fantastic home plays. The Brewers are no exception. They were No. 1 in the N.L. in home win percentage last year (.630) and are second to just the Cubs this season. But here's the rub: the Brewers are going to be shackled with insane lines for the rest of the year. Since acquiring C.C. Sabathia they are a favorite team of the square bettor. And between C.C. and Ben Sheets the Brewers have two arms that warrant -200 lines. Milwaukee has been posted at -185 or higher in five of their last 10 home games and that inflation could make them a team to play against in the second half of the year. They need to continue at their current pace just to break even. But as their numbers go up, so does the percentage you need to win. I say fade away.