Handicapping the NIT
by Trevor Whenham - 03/17/2008
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It's tournament time, and a lot of people forget that there is more than one tournament left to play. In fact, there are three this year. The NCAA Tournament is obviously the biggest and the best, but the NIT is actually a year older than the big dance - 1938 versus 1939.
First the basics of the NIT, or National Invitational Tournament. It features 32 teams in four regions of eight seeds. The field stepped back to that size last year after having previously welcoming 40 teams. The first round is played the two days before the NCAA Tournament starts and carries on continually for over a week. The first three rounds take place on the home courts of the higher seeds, and then the semis and finals move to Madison Square Garden.
NIT handicapping takes a slightly different mindset than that other tournament. Motivation is much more of a factor. Every team that is playing in the NCAA Tournament absolutely wants to be there, and they will be playing at their best. The NIT is where bubble teams that don't make it end up, and some of those teams aren't necessarily thrilled to be there. That means that good teams can play very badly and burn bettor money. The motivation factor, then, should be at least as significant in your handicapping as other normal factors. If you keep that in mind then the NIT can be an excellent way to get a bit of extra action during the tournament. Because bettors are so focused on the big bracket there can often be value found in neglected NIT games.
Though the NIT is clearly the lesser cousin, it still features some intriguing matchups this year. Most notable is a potential final - Ohio State versus Florida. That showdown would be very familiar, but it would hardly be a rematch since the key players on both sides are long gone.
Ohio State's bracket is a difficult one. The Buckeyes are the No. 1 seed, but there are all sorts of potential pitfalls along the way to New York - UNC Asheville, New Mexico, Cleveland State, Dayton, Illinois State. None of those teams are perfect obviously (they aren't in the tournament, after all), but they are all dangerous enough to catch a distracted team off guard.
Florida may struggle to make it as far as the finals. They don't have the look or feel of a team that is in form and enjoying playing together, and they face a rough road - San Diego State, and then either Creighton or Rhode Island. All of those teams will be up to play the defending champs, and all could win without too much surprise. The top seed in the bracket is Arizona State.
If the Buckeyes win their bracket then they would have an edge on making the final because the grouping they will meet in the semi-final does not appear particularly strong. Virginia Tech, the top seed, gave North Carolina a scare in the ACC Tournament and was close to a NCAA Tournament bid. Mississippi and Nebraska are the next two seeds, and both are deeply flawed. VCU, the No. 4 seed, is the most interesting choice.
The final bracket is the one with the most teams from power conference - the top seeds Syracuse, along with Florida State, Minnesota and Maryland. Those last two teams play each other in one of the more interesting match-ups of the first round. Neither team is great right now, but both are building and both are exceptionally well coached. The Seminoles, a No. 3 seed, will have their hands full with Akron in what should be another solid game. Stephen F. Austin, the team with the best record in the tournament at 26-6, is a No. 7 seed in this group. They aren't a particularly tested team, but they did beat two NCAA Tournament teams in non-conference pay - San Diego and Oklahoma.