Think that it's important for a football team to have the lead at halftime? Consider this - the teams that had the lead going in to the break in Week 1 of the NFL were 13-2 ATS. The only two exceptions were Tampa Bay - they led by three at the half but lost by four, a swing of a touchdown - and New England - they were leading at the half and the end, but their huge spread was rendered essentially meaningless as soon as Tom Brady left the game.

The college games in Week 2 weren't quite as lopsided, but the advantage of having a lead at the half was still very clear - the team on top after 30 minutes was 27-11 ATS. That's a 71 percent winning clip, and that would certainly be acceptable to any bettor in the world.

It's important to note the significance of those stats. I'm not saying that the teams were covering the spread at the half and didn't lose it. I'm saying that exclusive of what the spread was, having a lead at the half overwhelmingly converted into a cover at games end. If this wasn't just a fluke and a lopsided result in favor of the early leader and instead was a regular occurrence then the lesson would be clear - a big key to successful handicapping would be the identification of fast starters. But is that actually the case? Let's look at last year's NFL season to find out:

Week 1 - 9-3 ATS
Week 2 - 9-5 ATS
Week 3 - 7-5 ATS
Week 4 - 10-3 ATS
Week 5 - 8-4 ATS
Week 6 - 10-1 ATS
Week 7 - 10-4 ATS
Week 8 - 10-1 ATS
Week 9 - 10-4 ATS
Week 10 - 8-3 ATS
Week 11 - 12-1 ATS
Week 12 - 10-5 ATS
Week 13 - 9-5 ATS
Week 14 - 13-3 ATS
Week 15 - 11-4 ATS
Week 16 - 10-6 ATS
Week 17 - 13-2 ATS

That's what I would call compelling. In every single week of the season, the team with the halftime lead won more than enough games to be profitable ATS. Overall, teams with a halftime lead were 169 - 59 ATS. Let me put that another way - teams that were leading at halftime covered more than 74 percent of games played last year in the NFL. That might seem straightforward and obvious to some, but it's too powerful to dismiss. If your handicapping identifies a team that is typically strong in the first half playing against one that isn't then you have a very strong play. Further, this can allow a shift in your handicapping. If you are the type of person who likes to determine how you see a game play out before you make a betting decision, then you can effectively limit that process to just the first half. That leaves you with fewer variables to consider.

What is interesting is that the halftime leads are almost as strong an indicator of ATS success as they are of just straight wins. Teams that led at the half last year had a straight-up record of 182-53. That's a winning percentage of 77.4 percent - not as significantly different from the ATS number than you might expect. That means a couple of things. First, it tells us that a team with a halftime lead is typically going to be strong at the end of the game - they typically aren't just barely winning if they won the first half. It's also an indicator that the typical spread in the NFL isn't that big. In fact, the relative size of spreads in the NFL compared to college football would go a long way to explaining why the first half leaders were more successful in the NFL than in college last weekend - It's much easier for a college team to win a game very handily and still not cover a spread than it is in the NFL.

This isn't a recent phenomenon, either. In every NFL season since 1998 the team with a halftime lead has won at least 74.7 percent of the games, and has presumably covered an amount in the same range.

This isn't the magical key to handicapping success, and I'm not presenting it as such. It is, however, a very compelling statistic because of the reliability and one-sided nature of it. As with any compelling statistic or scenario, it would be more than worthwhile to consider the data and creatively apply it to your handicapping process. A little bit of back-testing and manipulation will often let you know quickly if it's going to help you or not. It may amount to nothing, but it may also help you win a few more games a year. That's never a bad thing.