Fourth Down and Inches
by Doc - 10/22/2008
Our top selection last weekend in college seemed in doubt at halftime, but Penn State put forth a dominating effort in the second half to down Michigan, 46-17. This was our second-straight victory with a 6-unit play, the first being Ohio State over Wisconsin. This week we will be coming right back with another 6-unit selection, our third of the season. This choice will be a Conference Game of the Year and come from either the ACC or PAC-10. This homer will get the call and should easily improve our mark to 3-0. If you are looking for a big play this weekend, this is the one!
Well, something has to give in Austin this Saturday when the undefeated Cowboys take on the No. 1-ranked Horns. Texas has been a gambling dream this season going 7-0 straight up and against the spread. Their opponent has matched this feat as well, going 7-0 straight up and 6-0 ATS. The Cowboys will be fighting history as well, as they have not recorded a victory in Austin since 1944. Texas has fallen behind early in previous meetings, trailing 35-7 in 2004, 28-9 in 2005, and 35-14 in 2007 but the Horns rallied to win each game. Will history repeat itself? No question that this Longhorns team has talent, as they have beaten Oklahoma and Missouri by double-digits in consecutive weeks. If you like Texas in this game, you must be thinking that they can emotionally get up for a third straight week.
As for the Cowboys, the secret to their success in now out of the bag. They beat Missouri in Columbia and pounded Baylor last week and had dominating running statistics in both of those games. They will find it much tougher running against Texas, as the Horns are No. 2 in that nation defending the run. My choice would be a slight lean for the dog, but if Texas wins this game, their may find their trip to Lubbock much harder than most people expect. This is a brutal schedule for Texas and if they can run the table no doubt, they are the best team in the land.
The biggest game on the card this week is Penn State traveling to Ohio State. The winner of this contest will win the Big Ten and receive the automatic BCS bid. In the past, the showdown was always between Michigan and Ohio State but Papa Joe has his team back from the dead once again. A few weeks back I would have taken the Lions hands down. However, things certainly have changed. The Buckeyes started the season out slow with the quarterback controversy playing a big role and the health or RB Wells. They got pounded by USC, but that was not a surprise to this writer.
But the team has not lost since then and QB Pryor gains more confidence each and every week. The Bucks are much more tested then Penn State and since the Lions joined the conference, Ohio State is 7-0 in Columbus. They enter as a two-point underdog and the homer may be the only choice.
Speaking of the Big Ten, what has happened to the Wisconsin Badgers, my hometown team? It certainly has been money in the bank going against them, as we have collected four of five times. In reality this team has gone south and morale is at an all-time low. They still have not solved their quarterback issue and the offensive line is banged-up. RB Hill and RB Clay also have nagging injuries and continue to see eight man fronts, as teams dare Wisconsin to beat them through the air. Counter that with a defense that is overrated and in my opinion this team is washed up for the year.
Wisconsin will face Illinois this Saturday at Camp Randall and I expect Juice and company to have their way. The only concern I have with Illinois is their defense, but Williams and company should simply be able to outscore their way to a victory. Wisconsin is lucky that they scheduled Cal Poly to end their season, as that may be their only win left on the schedule.
One of games that has really gotten my attention this week is a lesser game in the Big 12, with Baylor traveling to Nebraska. Looking over the stats for the Huskers it does not seem that the defense gotten better over the course of the season as one would expect. However, the past two games have seen some improvement. But the real improvement has been on the offense, as they are much more balanced then in 2007. Nebraska got crushed in their last home game against Missouri and because of that Coach Pelini apologized to the entire state. One would think that the Huskers would want take out their frustration on Baylor, the traditional doormat of the Big 12, this Saturday.
The AFC appears to be wide-open with any number of teams having a chance to make it to the Super Bowl. At the top of the list is Tennessee and Pittsburgh, but both of them still have plenty of doubters. Can the Titans score enough points to win in January and can Pittsburgh stand up when they play good competition? Pittsburgh plays in an easy division and many of their wins have come against Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. Kerry Collins is still quarterbacking Tennessee and, until he proves skeptics wrong, I will be the one that said I told you so about him in January.
The traditional powers of Indianapolis, San Diego, and New England are trailing in their own divisions and all are hit hard by injuries. Many believed that the Colts were ready to make a run but they sure did lay an egg last week against Green Bay. QB Manning threw two pick-sixes and the Colts were never in the game. I would not be surprised if a team emerges within the next couple of weeks and rises to the top and it may be someone off the radar at the moment. We nailed our top play this week and betting big dogs seems to be the way to go.
This week I will be in Las Vegas for the, "Money Talks" contest at the Rivera. If you are in town please stop by and say hello. I came in second in this contest the last two years. Coming in second is a job well done, expect that nobody remembers who lost the Super Bowl!
We broke though last week in a big way, winning money in both college and NFL and will carry that momentum into this weekend with another outstanding card. The highlight will be a six-unit selection on Saturday, as we look to move our mark to 3-0 in 2008. I hope you are along for the ride.
Best of Luck
Doc