Fourth Down and Inches
by Doc - 11/12/2008
Our Big Ten selections rolled last week as we released Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Western Michigan and we nailed the Superfecta by winning all four. Even though Ohio State was our top play of the week, the most gratifying selection might have been Iowa. The Hawkeyes beat Penn State straight up with a field goal at the buzzer and certainly looked good on defense for 60 minutes. I must admit that I am eating crow with Iowa, as I predicted them to finish at the bottom of the standings. True, they are just 3-3 in the Big Ten. However, they have two winnable games remaining that could jump their record to 5-3. They finish up with Purdue and Minnesota and both of these teams are really struggling at the moment. Iowa's defense continues to play outstanding. I must admit I questioned Coach Ferentz's decision to change quarterbacks but Ricky Stanzi has gotten the job done. Ferentz has certainly gotten off the hot seat for at least a season and Iowa should be heading to a Florida bowl come Christmas time.
As I look at this week's card, I feel it's another exceptional situation in college football. We will release our Revenge Game of the Year (6-unit play), but I obviously cannot comment on that game, as it would give our side away.
A couple of other games that have merit are Indiana at Penn State and Minnesota at Wisconsin. Not often can one look at a conference game and justify laying 35 points. However, that will be the case at State College this Saturday. Indiana has certainly replaced my Iowa selection as the worst team in the Big Ten. Their success from last year has gone out the window and they are terrible in all facets of the game. They have been hit hard by injuries and if you watched the game against Wisconsin last week you would have noticed that the stadium was half empty. Penn State is 11-0 all-time against Indiana and has had its way on offense in most of those games, scoring at will. One has to believe that the Lions are angry after losing to Iowa last week and I would think Indiana may be looking ahead to Purdue in two weeks. That could be a winnable game but this one will be a rout and paramedics will likely be needed.
The other game in the Big Ten that I have circled is Minnesota at Wisconsin. As most of you know I have gone against Wisconsin several times and had a lot of early success. Last week we shifted gears and easily collect against Indiana, the worst team in the league. The Badgers crushed Indiana had have seemed too have gone back to their roots as a strong running team. As for the Gophers they seem to be unraveling and this is something that I expected could happen if you read my column a few weeks ago. This week the Gophers will be without their top playmaker in WR Eric Decker, who is out with a high ankle sprain. The Gophers had early success this season but one must remember that the only quality win came against Illinois. They padded their record by beating cupcakes and now the schedule gets tougher and they could easily finish on a four-game losing streak. Despite being 7-3, they enter as a two touchdown underdog against a 5-5 Wisconsin team and that alone should tell you something.
One game that has caught my attention outside the Big Ten is South Carolina traveling to Florida. This is another reunion for Coach Spurrier and he quietly thinks he has a chance in this contest. Florida has shown no mercy to their opponents recently, running up the score in an effort to move up in the polls. Carolina was a seven-point dog last year and lost, 51-31. However, one must remember that they entered that game on a three-game losing streak and their 2008 defense is much improved. It's no picnic playing in the swamp but Spurrier does not want to get embarrassed and I believe he keeps this game under the posted number.
The NFL is starting to take shape as every team has now played nine games and the best team thus far is the defending champions, the New York Giants. Granted, Tennessee is still unbeaten, but the Giants are much more rounded and can beat you in a variety of ways. They had a huge game last week against Philadelphia and won in Philly against an Eagles team that was desperate for a victory. No doubt the NFC East is the best division in football, but they will not send three teams to the playoffs like many experts believe. The division is too tough and they will knock each other off and allow a team from the AFC South to sneak in as a wild card. We will likely have a 5-unit selection going this week in the NFL, so please check back later in the week.
As I mentioned last week, our 37th year of college basketball handicapping will tip-off this Saturday, Nov. 15. For the first time this decade, we have published a complete season college basketball schedule, similar to our annual football publication. If you are interested in receiving a copy of this book please can our main office in Wisconsin at (800) 356-9182 and if you mention the code, "Backboard" we will send it out free. We are expecting a monster season in college basketball and our recent success speaks for itself. You can view our complete 2007 season record by clicking here and we encourage you to try one of our many packages, as we are confident that you will not be disappointed.
Best of Luck,
Doc