As I was reading up on the baseball trade deadline the other day I was caught totally off guard by something - Colorado GM Dan O'Dowd emphatically stating that his team was not going to be a seller. Up to that point we'd heard that Brian Fuentes and Matt Holliday were very much in play, and other players might be available for the right price. At first I though that O'Dowd had lost his mind, driven to insanity by the ridiculously bad performance of his team through the first 100 or so games. But then a sad realization struck - despite how bad this team is, their division is even more pathetic, so they aren't out of it. A team that is 48-60 should be so far out of it that they would trade the hot dog vendor if they got the right offer.

So, the question needs to be asked - can this team actually make a run for a playoff spot? Can they recapture last year's unlikely magic again? I don't want to believe it, but let's see if I might have to get used to the idea.

Standings - At first glance it isn't pretty - the Rockies are seven games out of first place. They've been here before, though. As late as July 16 last year they were 6.5 games out of first place in the NL West, but they were ahead by the end of the season. That being said, this is a big hole to climb out of. Seven games is seven games, but the task of catching up is made a bit easier given that the target is likely just .500 or so. It's not very likely given past performance this year that either the Diamondbacks or the Dodgers are going to go on a runaway winning streak, so the Rockies could at least make the race interesting without having to mount quite the winning streak they put together last year. It helps that a good portion of their lineup was around last year, so they know what it takes to win, and they have that to fall back on.

Recent form - Though they have lost two in a row in Pittsburgh, the last two weeks has given fans some reason to be optimistic. Before these two losses they had won nine of 10. Included in that stretch the Rockies took two of three from the Dodgers and swept the Reds in Cincinnati. That last sweep was particularly impressive for a team that had won just twice in their previous 13 tries on the road, even if it only came against the Reds. Overall, they are 16-9 in July. While you can't necessarily say that they will maintain that pace, even the harshest critic has to admit that this team should be much better than they were up to the end of June. That means that July hasn't been a total fluke, and it isn't as ridiculous to suggest that this team could be competitive as it might otherwise seem. They were 10 games out at the end of June, so they closed the gap slightly without playing at a truly superhuman level.

Batting - The Rockies have been hitting very well of late, but that's not actually a good thing in my eyes in this case. The team has eight positional players that are hitting at .300 or better since the beginning of July. Three - Ryan Spilborghs, Ian Stewart and Troy Tulowitzki - are at .435 or better. That's an obvious contributor to their solid month of July, but it hardly seems sustainable for the last two months of the season. To get to the top of the division standings they will need to win at least the same pace they have up to now, but they will almost certainly have to find a way to do that while not hitting as well. That's a tough order.

Pitching - This doesn't make me any more optimistic, either. The hitters haven't done all of the work to keep winning in July. The starting pitchers are 14-6 this month. It's hard to believe that that is sustainable given the number of pitchers that are pitching way beyond their whole season results. Ubaldo Jimenez is just 7-9 on the year, yet he is 5-1 in his last six. Glendon Rusch has spent time with two different AAA teams this season, and he hasn't been a full-time starter since 2002, yet he is 3-0 since being pressed into emergency starting action due to injuries. They aren't the only guys who are beyond expectations, and over the long run they could be expected to come back to earth a bit. Combine even slightly worse pitching with worse hitting and you have troubles. The one hope the team has is that Jeff Francis is expected back soon. He's had a setback with soreness in his shoulder, though, and he hasn't exactly torn it up so far this year - 3-7 with a 5.67 ERA.

So what does it all mean? Given the way the NL West has struggled, and the recent history of the Rockies, I wouldn't be comfortable with entirely ruling them out of the playoff race. If I had to bet, though, I would pretty comfortable be on the Dodgers or the Diamondbacks over the Rockies. Bodog has the Rockies at 20/1 to win the NL pennant - ninth out of the 16 teams in the league. I wouldn't touch that for anything - even if someone else gave me the money.