Coaching Uncertainty in Bowl Season
by Trevor Whenham - 12/18/2008
There is a challenge facing bettors as we get ready for bowl season that has become an increasing problem every year - the revolving door that separates coaches from teams as they head into the bowl season. There are the coaches that have been fired, and left with an interim coach in his place. There's the coaches who have left for a new job, or those who have a new job but are still sticking around with the old team for their bowl. There are the coordinators who are moving on to a new program, and those who are about to become head coaches. There are the coaches who are lame ducks, just waiting for the axe to fall in early January. There are literally dozens of possibilities, and each one raises different problems for bettors. Each situation has to be looked at separately, but it's possible, and helpful, to come up with some general questions to guide our thinking about the situations when they arise.
Is the coach still around? - The biggest question is whether the coach or coordinator will be involved with bowl preparation. Every school seems to have a different view on this, and it can have a real impact on the team. There is no clear way to look at this, either - it can be a good thing for the coach to stick around, or it can be better if they go. By determining the status of the coach and his involvement in the process you can begin to guess whether the school's decision will have a positive or negative impact on the team. Even top programs have different views on this - Steve Sarkisian has left USC to concentrate on his new job at Washington, but Dan Mullen will still call the plays for Florida in the BCS Championship before heading to Mississippi State as head coach.
How has time been divided? - If the coach or coordinator is still around for the bowl game then it can be helpful to understand how he has been splitting his time between this job and his new one. Newspapers and Internet reports will be helpful in figuring this out. This can have two potential effects for bettors. It can indicate that the team or a particular unit may not be as prepared or focused as they should be. It can also create value for bettors if the public attaches too much significance to the situation as reflected in the line movement.
What's the mood of the team? - Some coaching changes are happy, seamless situations while others are bitter and frustrating. A team may look to win one last game for a popular coach, or they may quit if the situation has been handled poorly or if the coach was fired after the team was beyond hope. The attitude of the players because of a coaching change can have much more significance than the change itself.
Was there a logical replacement in place? - If a coach or coordinator leaves and an obvious and respected replacement is in place then the change can be seamless and perhaps even positive. It's when a team is left in chaos and uncertainty that problems can arise. This is true of head coaches, but especially of coordinators, because those are the guys that players have the most direct contact with.
How key was the coach? - Not all coaches are created equal. Some teams would be devastated if their defensive coordinator were to leave, while other teams probably don't even realize that they have a defense, never mind a coordinator. Before you can make a good assessment of the impact of a coaching change you need to try to understand the impact of the coach and his departure. The easiest thing to do in a situation like this is to overcompensate and assume that a team is going to be in far worse shape than they actually will be.
What does it mean to the rest of the staff? - Coaching is a tenuous profession, so coaches can't be blamed for thinking about where their paycheck is going to come from next season. If a coordinator leaves a job then the position coaches who work under him may not be confident in their job security. That could affect their focus and preparations. The time spent chasing a new job is time not spent preparing for the bowl. When a head coach leaves, every coach is going to be concerned. When a school hasn't let the coaches know about their status going forward there is a good chance that the team won't be at its best.