OK, it's 4:15 a.m. and after just putting the little princess, my four-month-old daughter, back to sleep I just can't get back to bed. Why, you ask? Worried about rising energy costs or the upcoming elections? Nope. Worried about the cost of insurance, global warming and its effect on natural disasters, or our failing education system? Not so much. I'm worried about the Reds and the Astros. And here's what I've come up with:

If you want to absolutely, without fail, make some money this week you simply need to work a chase on Houston and Cincinnati in their series' at Tampa Bay and the Bronx, respectively. Nearly guaranteed. Or, at least I think.

I know, I know - it's inexplicable. But hear me out. These two teams are pretty bad, and they've been playing awful lately (combined 4-16 in their last 20). On top of that, they are playing two of the best teams in the league over the last three weeks on their own turf. But I'm telling you, I just really, really feel like neither Cincy nor Houston are getting swept this weekend. And this is how you make money betting - by doing the complete opposite of what logic and reason suggests.

Tampa is due for a mini letdown after an emotional sweep of the Cubs. In the series following their four previous sweeps this year (they have swept Boston, the Yankees, the White Sox, and now the Cubs - WOW) they have lost at least one game. As for the Yankees, I just think that the Reds and all of their lefty bats are going to get on the N.Y. arms. Everyone steps their game up when they get to Yankees Stadium and I think that the Reds have a bit better team than they are trotting out there every day. I see one of these games being a 10-5 Cincy win this weekend, courtesy of a Yankees bullpen meltdown.

On top of that, I'm looking at Friday's numbers (Yankees -140 and Tampa Bay -145) and I just know something is up. I know it. The Astros haven't even settled on a pitcher for Friday's game. No way the Rays should be -180. None. So you tell me: exceptional value or trap line?

So, again, I think a chase on each of these teams will turn a profit. Total hunch play, that I'm likely not going to act on with any rated plays. However, one bettor to another, I think we turn a (minor) profit by buying low with these two terrible teams and I support it.

If you're not familiar with The Chase, this is how you bet, knowing that both Cincy and Houston will be dogs in all three of their games in their respective series (I'm using estimated lines):

Game 1 - bet 1.0 to win 1.2
Game 2 - bet 1.0 to win 1.3
Game 3 - bet 2.0 to win 2.7

As you can see, any one win covers any previous losses in the series. In the above example we're dealing with lines of +120, +130, and +135. I actually think we can get better odds than that.

So there you go. Am I crazy? Am I just overtired? Or am I a mad, handicapping genius? Guess we're going to find out soon enough.

(One last thing, don't be surprised to see me actually post a play or two against these teams this weekend. But that doesn't contradict what I'm saying. Working a chase on a team is a completely different ball game from trying to peg a winner in one particular game.)

Now it's time to sleep.