NASCAR: Camping World RV 400 - Kansas Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 09/26/2008
Greg Biffle will try to continue his historic two-race win streak in the Chase for the Sprint Cup as NASCAR gears-up for some afternoon racing at Kansas Speedway, where Biffle is the defending champion, for the Camping World RV 400 on Sunday at 2:15 p.m. EST.
Gamblers should be aware that three out of the last four races at Kansas have been won by drivers out of the Chase. During the past four years manufacturers Chevrolet and Ford have alternated wins with Ford wining last year. The only driver to win this race from the pole was Joe Nemechek in 2004 so you might want to wait to invest in this race until after qualifying.
Who will win the Camping World RV 400 - Kansas?
Greg Biffle is tied with Jimmie Johnson for second place in the Chase for the Sprint Cup, 10-points behind Carl Edwards. No. 16 is now 2-for-2 in Chase races, making him the man to beat as he goes into Kansas, where he is defending champion. Biffle also has three top-five finishes at Kansas and made NASCAR history last week by being the first driver ever to win the first two Chase races.
Conversely, things seemed like they couldn't get worse for Kyle Busch after a 34th-place finish in New Hampshire. But they did at the Monster Mile as Busch ran into mechanical troubles and finished 43rd! Busch proclaimed that he'd put himself out of the hunt for the Chase after only two races. This could mark the second year in a row where the season point's leader going into the Chase does not win the Championship.
Busch might have reason for his bitterness. Under the traditional standings he would have 3,978 points, good enough for second place and 33 points behind Carl Edwards rather than his current 12th (last) place and -210 points in the current Chase standings.
While Busch sounded defeated after Dover he has looked upon Jimmie Johnson's 2006 run for inspiration. You'll remember that after five races Johnson was 146 points out of first and rallied to win the Cup. The question is does Busch have the maturity to put recent history behind him and drive like he did when he won eight races and dominated the field?
The reason why I don't like Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. or Jeff Gordon in this race is that Hendrick Motorsports has had a tough time on the intermediate tracks this season and I don't see how they'll be able to change that this week at Kansas. Given HMS difficulties at 1 ½ miles I can't see investing in any of their drivers to win this Sunday.
With the next four of six races run on 1.5 mile intermediate tracks Rousch Fenway Racing's chances look better than ever to get one of their drivers the Sprint Cup. Indeed, last week RFR notched 1-2-3 with Biffle, Kenseth and Edwards finishing in respective order. This week it looks like more of the same. While Biffle might not win his third Chase event of the season chances are very good that one of his other teammates will. All three of these drivers have to be considered as viable drivers to win. You can't go wrong picking an RFR driver to finish in the top five this week at Kansas.
Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, (4/1)
Solid Gold Picks
Sportsbook.com has listed many matchups on the Camping World RV 400 at Kansas this weekend but here are two that should cash. Last weekend I won easily backing Biffle over Kyle Busch a dream match-up that ended almost as soon as the race started which unfortunately was not the case for our second play; Hamlin as the +1.05 dog to Kenseth. Kenseth finished the race in second place and killed our bankroll by three units. Thanks to the +1.25 win on Biffle my day wasn't as bad as it could have been. As of deadline this Friday NASCAR matchups were not hung which leaves me Over-the-Wall at 14-16 and -2.35 units on the season after 28 of 36 Sprint Cup races completed. I have one bit of advice and don't invest in match-ups within Rousch Fenway Racing and take RFR against pretty much any other team this weekend.
Long Odds Pick
There are a lot of reasons to back one of my favorite drivers in NASCAR today. Mark Martin has quietly had good year driving for Dale Earnhardt Inc. At Dover he surprised a lot of people by finishing in the top-five. He has one win (but 18 on intermediate tracks overall), two top-fives and three top-10s with a respectable 12.4 average finish. And he fits into the Kansas handicapping profile by being one of the drivers out of the Chase (if that trend continues). Martin always races hard and is fun to root for so for me that makes him the logical choice for a longshot win.
Pick! Mark Martin, No. 8, (25/1)
Odds to win the Camping World RV 400
Sun, Sep 28th (2:15pm EST) @ Kansas Speedway
A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Bill Elliott 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 25/1
Carl Edwards 4/1
Casey Mears 75/1
Clint Bowyer 25/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12/1
Dave Blaney 100/1
David Gilliland 100/1
David Ragan 25/1
David Reutimann 100/1
Denny Hamlin 12/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 5/1
Jamie McMurray 75/1
Jeff Burton 30/1
Jeff Gordon 18/1
Jimmie Johnson 9/2
Joe Nemechek 100/1
Johnny Sauter 200/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 100/1
Kasey Kahne 35/1
Kevin Harvick 35/1
Kurt Busch 50/1
Kyle Busch 9/2
Kyle Petty 100/1
Marcos Ambrose 200/1
Mark Martin 25/1
Martin Truex Jr. 30/1
Matt Kenseth 12/1
Michael McDowell 100/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Patrick Carpentier 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Robby Gordon 100/1
Ryan Newman 50/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Riggs 100/1
Tony Raines 100/1
Tony Stewart 12/1
Travis Kvapil 100/1
*odds courtesy of Bodog