Betting On Bad College Football Teams
by Trevor Whenham - 11/05/2008
There are still three or more games left for every college team in the country, but for several teams the season is already over. Several teams have already ensured that they will have a losing season, and that they have no chance of winning their conference or playing in a bowl game. For those teams the rest of the season is going to be a long, dreary march to the offseason. It can be tempting for bettors to write those teams off entirely--and often that is the right move--but sometimes these teams can be a decent bet despite their record and performance to date. In order to make betting decisions about teams that are out of contention, then, you have to evaluate them based on where they are at and where they might be going. Here are five things to consider as you attempt to do that:
Coaching status - A bad season can often be hard on a coach's career. Understanding the status of the coach's job security can give you good insight into the team's performance. In the last week we have seen three coaches who have become lame ducks - they'll be replaced at the end of the season. There is little chance that those teams are gong to improve for the rest of the season when that happens. A coach doesn't have to be officially fired for everyone to know it's going to happen, either. You can pick up insights in local papers found online or on message boards that will let you know that a coach's days are numbered. That's not going to help the team get better this year, either. On the other hand, some coaches will be perfectly secure in their jobs no matter how a team ends up performing. Those are the teams that could finish comparatively strong.
Status of core skill players - Sometimes the reason a team has had a lousy year is because their skill players are mostly freshmen. It's hard to win when you are relying on a freshman quarterback, especially if he doesn't have veterans around him to protect him and help him out. Notre Dame, for example, struggled horribly once Brady Quinn left. A young player or group of players is going to improve with time, though. It's possible that later on in the season a player that had previously been a liability can start to limit mistakes, or even begin winning games for his team. A team with young players, then, could be a solid late season play - their lines may not reflect their ability. Similarly, late season value can often be found if a team's problems have been caused by injuries to core players. If those injuries are no longer an issue, or if the replacements are getting more comfortable, then the team may be able to finally outplay their lines.
Recent form - A team can be eliminated from the postseason thanks to a lousy early start, but that doesn't necessarily reflect the current reality. There are often situations where a team is showing recent form that isn't reflected in their record and won't be spotted by the general public. Has a team won a game or two recently? Have they covered more games n their last couple than they did at the start of the year? Is a previously impotent offense suddenly managing to score a point or two? All those could be signs of a team ready to present some value.
Performance compared to expectations - Some teams are bad because they are supposed to be. If a team has brought in a new coach and a new system then they likely were destined to have a rough year. Those teams could get stronger, though, as the season progresses and the system becomes more comfortable. On the other hand, sometimes you have a team that was supposed to be decent but really isn't - Tennessee this year, for example. It will be harder for a team like that to turn things around because it is almost certain that morale is low and frustration high around the team. They probably won't provide much value down the stretch. It's also possible that you could have a team that is doing pretty badly, but may be a bit better than they were expected to be. Maybe a rebuilding team only has two wins, but they came in the conference against traditional rivals or they were on the road. Those teams are probably better than the public thinks they are, and they could provide value. The key, then, is to compare the performance of a team to their expectations, and act on the differences accordingly.
Schedule - Not all records are created equally. Take Texas for example. They have shown that they are a very good team despite only going 3-1 against Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Missouri and Oklahoma State. If, though, they had gone 3-1 against Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State and Texas A&M then we wouldn't be nearly as impressed with them. To fully evaluate a team you need to consider both who they have already played and who they have left to play. If they have played the toughest part of their conference schedule and lost then they may fare better down the road when the opponents get easier. That could mean value. If, though, they haven't yet played the cream of the conference and they are already struggling then things could really get ugly in the coming weeks. The value could be in betting against them.