Possible Week 1 College Trap Lines
by Trevor Whenham - 08/25/2007
After an offseason that seemed like it would never end, college football season is almost here. The season starts in earnest in less than a week - there are seven games to bet on Thursday, Aug. 30, and a full schedule follows over the weekend. Though it's incredibly exciting to have the season underway, it can also be a very costly weekend if we don't go into it with our heads in the right state. It's very important to remember that it has been a long time since these teams have played a game, and that anything can happen in an offseason thanks to coaching changes, graduations, new recruits arriving and the dozens of other factors that make college football so exciting. Because of those changes, and because everyone is so excited to finally have the season underway, the first week of the year is full of traps that can catch the bettor if they aren't aware.
Here's a look at five games that qualify as traps as I see them. I'm certainly not saying that one team or the other is going to win in these games. That's the problem, there are so many factors involved in these games that the lines just don't make sense, and the games are just begging to be left alone:
Buffalo (+32.5) at Rutgers - I was as big of a fan of the Rutgers story last year as anyone was. They played football the right way, and they were very easy to cheer for. That being said, I wouldn't touch this game even if I was spending someone else's money. Rutgers had only two spreads over 16 points last season, and they failed to cover either one. The offense will be similar to last year, but the absence of Brian Leonard could have a real impact. Buffalo is bad (2-10 last year, but they were only beat by more than this spread twice last year, and they covered giant spreads against Auburn and Wisconsin. Rutgers could be the same team they were last year, or they could take a step back down to earth. Until we get a sense of which will be a case it makes no sense to mess with this spread.
North Texas (+40) at Oklahoma - All things being equal, is Oklahoma 40 points better than North Texas? Probably. That's a lot of points, but Oklahoma is an elite program, and North Texas is about as far from elite as you can get. In most circumstances a case could be made for Oklahoma if you are comfortable with huge spreads. In this case, though, you have a team starting a redshirt freshman QB in Sam Bradford. Bradford has to make his debut without the safety blanket of Adrian Peterson, the best friend to Oklahoma quarterbacks the last few years, as the running back is now in the NFL. Even with a defense as overmatched as North Texas' will be, it's far from a sure thing that Oklahoma can score 40 points, never mind 40 more than their opponent. That doesn't mean, though, that North Texas is a worthwhile pick, because they are not at all good, and could very well lose by 60. This is a game that should be avoided.
Troy (+23.5) at Arkansas - This is a case where the Heisman hype of Darren McFadden has possibly created a line that isn't at all attractive. Arkansas is unquestionably the better team, and will almost certainly win, but winning by more than three touchdowns may be a stretch. Troy is not a very well known program, but they are solid - they won the Sun Belt Conference last year, and they have a senior quarterback who is very accurate. This line is reminiscent of week two last season. Arkansas was clearly superior to Utah State, but the 27.5 points seemed like too much. The team looked solid on both sides of the ball as they won 20-0, but they didn't cover. The same possibility exists here, and that makes it a trap game worth avoiding in my eyes.
Bowling Green (+14.5) at Minnesota - Why n the world would anyone want anything to do with a game like this? Sure, you have a major conference team against a mid-major, and the better conference is playing host, but you are also dealing with two truly terrible teams. Bowling Green will be lucky to win more than two games all year, and it will take a miracle for Minnesota to win a conference game. No matter which way you go in this game you are forced to rely on an awful, and awfully flawed, team to come through when you need them. I have much better things to throw my money away on.
Nevada (+19) at Nebraska - Having one questionable quarterback situation in a game can lead to a betting opportunity. Having two in the same game means that you have a game to stay away from. Nevada was a great team to bet on last year - 11-2 ATS. This year, though, they have to make due without the competent leadership of QB Jeff Rowe. Sophomore Nick Graziano has all sorts of ability, and he looked comfortable in very limited action last season. He's never started, though, and he's never experienced the madness of football in Nebraska. There's no telling how he will react. Nebraska would be attractive, then, but they are breaking in a new quarterback of their own. Sam Keller, who transferred from Arizona State, is experienced and talented, but he hasn't played in a season and a half, and he has to get comfortable with a new team and a new offense. He will be fine by the time conference play rolls around, but will he be in form soon enough to outscore Nevada by three touchdowns? With so many questions, this is a game to skip.