2007 Masters Odds and Betting Suggestions
by Trevor Whenham - 04/03/2007
The Masters is just around the corner. That means it is finally the time of year when golf tournaments matter. It also means that the casual bettor will start looking towards golf again. The bad news for those bettors is that, on the surface, the Masters is not going to be a very interesting tournament to bet on. To be a pleasure to handicap, the outcome of an event like this has to be somewhat in doubt, and the chances of a seriously huge payday at least have to be reasonable. Though, theoretically, anyone in the field can win this tournament, the likelihood is very high that one of the two guys that have won five of the last six tournaments - Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods - is going to be wearing green again on Sunday. In either case, the payoff won't make you rich. Regardless, I will examine some of the 2007 Masters odds and see if there is any betting value that can be found.
I'm not going to bother to try to find an adjective to describe Tiger Woods. It's not worth it. He's at +150 to win the Masters, and as ridiculous as that number is, it's not unjustified. Woods won his last time out at Doral to prove that he's in form, but it's what preceded that win that makes him such a favorite at Augusta. He had a disappointing run in the Match Play, and followed it up with another dud at Bay Hill. After a fourth-round meltdown at the latter tournament, he hit the driving range, corrected what was wrong with his swing and won with relative ease. That ability to self-correct, which he has shown throughout his career when he is at his best, is proof that he is focused and coming to Augusta ready to win. Betting on him at +150 probably doesn't make a lot of sense, but you'll have to have a pretty good reason to bet against him.
If Tiger isn't the obvious choice, then Phil is. After struggling to win at Augusta, he's turned the course into his personal playground the last few years. He's the defending champion, and he hasn't been out of the top 10 since 1998. His new success has come hand-in-hand with a focus on preparation on the majors that is almost maniacal. He's been in Augusta longer than most of the pros this week, and the effort is paying off - he had a hole in one on the 16th in a practice round on Sunday. Mickelson hasn't won since Pebble Beach, and hasn't had much to show other than a playoff loss at the Nissan since then, but there are signs that he is in the zone. He had a terrible first round at Doral, but bounced back with a 69 in tough scoring conditions on Sunday - one of the best scores of the day. Mickelson's at +850, and certainly presents better value than his nemesis.
Adam Scott is going to be a trendy pick at the Masters. I'm not buying it. People will see value at +3250, especially since he's coming off a win at the Shell Houston Open last week. In my mind, though, it would have been a bigger story if he hadn't won that tournament, or at least come close, given how comparatively weak the field was. He hadn't been playing particularly well here or in Europe before that, and he has been far from dominant in his previous trips to Augusta. He has the potential to win, but if he does, it won't be with my money on his back.
The trendy European pick seems to be Henrik Stenson at +3500. He's another one I'm not buying into. The argument in his favor is that he is ready to play with the big boys after winning the Match Play and following that up with another win in Dubai. Masters winners, however, are generally people that have played the course enough to get beyond the intimidation and aura of Augusta and settle into their own game. Stenson has only been to the Masters once, and he didn't make the cut last year. That doesn't bode well.
An interesting player is Charles Howell III. He's had a very good year so far. He stared down Mickelson in the playoff at the Nissan Open and won, and he has two more second place finishes at well. He offers a solid price at +4000, but he has the same monkey on his back at Augusta that he has always had. Howell is a local boy, and he has never seemed to deal particularly well with the pressure of performing in his own backyard. The course is built for his long game, though, and a breakthrough could happen. He probably knows the course as well as almost anyone in the field.
If none of those choices work for you, then where can you look? I'm a Canadian, so I would have my citizenship revoked if I didn't mention Mike Weir. He's the last mere mortal to win here, and his +10,000 price would pay some bills, but he's going through a swing reconstruction that has dragged on for years now, and a win would be a miracle. The two golfers who were supposed to be part of the Big Four before Tiger and Phil ran away are always worth a look. Vijay Singh is playing extremely well this year. He has won twice, and he has banked almost $3 million, so you aren't throwing you money away on him at +1800. Ernie Els at +1600 seems like a bit more of a mystery. He's had solid but unspectacular results this year, and he's two years removed from his best results at Augusta. He's a pretty severe underlay in my mind. The other way to go is with Bradley Dredge or Shingo Katayama. They're the longest shots on the board at +40,000. If they win you will be rolling in the cash and you'll have bragging rights to last a lifetime.
Bodog 2007 Masters Odds. All Masters Betting odds subject to change. Check Bodog for current Masters odds and additional wagering options.
PGA Tour- Odds to Win the US Masters 2007
Tiger Woods
3/2
Phil Mickelson
7/1
Ernie Els
16/1
Vijay Singh
14/1
Adam Scott
20/1
Jim Furyk
25/1
Sergio Garcia
28/1
Retief Goosen
25/1
Geoff Ogilvy
33/1
Henrik Stenson
25/1
Paul Casey
50/1
Luke Donald
50/1
Padraig Harrington
50/1
Charles Howell III
40/1
Robert Allenby
50/1
Chris DiMarco
40/1
Trevor Immelman
50/1
Davis Love III
80/1
Jose Maria Olazabal
66/1
Justin Rose
80/1
Mike Weir
80/1
Stuart Appleby
80/1
Stewart Cink
100/1
Stephen Ames
100/1
Aaron Baddeley
100/1
Angel Cabrera
125/1
K.J. Choi
100/1
David Howell
125/1
Arron Oberholser
100/1
David Toms
100/1
Mark Calcavecchia
150/1
Chad Campbell
100/1
Zach Johnson
125/1
Nick O'Hern
125/1
Rod Pampling
150/1
Ian Poulter
125/1
Steve Stricker
125/1
Vaughn Taylor
150/1
Brett Wetterich
150/1
Bart Bryant
150/1
Fred Couples
150/1
Niclas Fasth
150/1
Lucas Glover
125/1
Miguel Angel Jimenez
150/1
Colin Montgomerie
150/1
John Rollins
150/1
Camilo Villegas
150/1
Field (Any Other Golfer)
6/1
US Masters - Who Will Lead After The 1st Round
Tiger Woods
4/1
Phil Mickelson
9/1
Ernie Els
14/1
Vijay Singh
16/1
Adam Scott
25/1
Jim Furyk
28/1
Sergio Garcia
28/1
Retief Goosen
25/1
Geoff Ogilvy
28/1
Henrik Stenson
28/1
Paul Casey
28/1
Luke Donald
33/1
Padraig Harrington
33/1
Charles Howell III
40/1
Robert Allenby
40/1
Chris DiMarco
40/1
Trevor Immelman
50/1
Justin Rose
50/1
Davis Love III
66/1
Arron Oberholser
66/1
Jose Maria Olazabal
66/1
Mike Weir
80/1
Stuart Appleby
80/1
Aaron Baddeley
80/1
K.J. Choi
66/1
Stewart Cink
80/1
Stephen Ames
100/1
Angel Cabrera
100/1
David Howell
100/1
Steve Stricker
100/1
David Toms
100/1
Bart Bryant
125/1
Mark Calcavecchia
100/1
Chad Campbell
100/1
Fred Couples
125/1
Niclas Fasth
125/1
Lucas Glover
125/1
Miguel Angel Jimenez
125/1
Zach Johnson
125/1
Colin Montgomerie
125/1
Field (Any Other Golfer)
5/4