NASCAR Nextel Cup Series: LIFELOCK 400 Picks
by Christopher G. Shepard - 09/28/2007
It's September and if you are talking about Joe Gibbs then you're probably talking about how the Washington Redskins choked in the second half, handing a win to the Giants. However, you could be talking about how driver Tony Stewart ripped it up at Kansas last year and how he's the ace of Gibbs' current second team and the 5/1 favorite to win the Lifelock 400 on Sunday.
Earning a third at New Hampshire and ninth at Dover, Tony Stewart comes into the Lifelock 400 at Kansas Speedway as the defending champion and will look to continue his dominance on intermediate tracks and take over the points lead from Jeff Gordon in the Chase for the Nextel Cup.
If you are thinking of investing a few V-chips in NASCAR this Sunday, keep in mind that in six races held at Kansas Speedway both drivers atop the leader board, Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart, have won here. Of the twelve Chase drivers, however, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton and Carl Edwards have also notched top fives here.
Last weekend I picked Carl Edwards at 10/1 to win the Dover 400 and he did. But Edwards' win wasn't just due to his great driving, but his great surviving. There was also a lot of help from the NASCAR Gods. How else do you explain Edwards surviving a record 13 cautions? Matt Kenseth, who led the race for 192 laps, had a faulty alternator and engine troubles ending his race on Lap 375, something that hadn't happened to Kenseth since Daytona 2005. If not for those engine troubles, he probably would have won.
However, Edwards was the victor. His jump to third place in the Chase standings was brief as he was docked 25 points by NASCAR for his car failing post-race inspection. Twenty five points might not seem like a lot from an Arena Football point of view, but in NASCAR where points are at a premium, it was enough to drop him from third to sixth place in the standings. Good thing Edwards races well at Kansas, where another strong showing could keep him competitive and in the logjam atop the leader board.
Who will win the LIFELOCK 400?
I'm not the only one who likes No. 20. Tony Stewart, since he is posted as the 5/1 favorite. But, just in case, I'll look at another Chaser hoping to make some noise on Sunday -- Kevin Harvick.
Harvick earned a fifth place at Chicagoland earlier this year. Stats don't mean a lot when it comes to handicapping the Chase field and, as the last two races have shown, anyone can win during the Chase. Harvick has been racing well on intermediate tracks, but he's been off to a slow start in the Chase and sits in ninth place, 115 points behind the leaders. Despite his fifth place at Chicagoland, I don't think Kansas is the place where he's likely to find his first win since he has only one top 10 finish here previously.
Then there is Mr. Consistency, Matt Kenseth, who is one point behind Harvick at 116 points and sits in 10th place. Kenseth was doing great at Dover until he had some unfortunate luck. So don't let his No. 10 seed fool you; he's a big threat and will look to rebound at Kansas. Kenseth has earned 10 wins on intermediate tracks but has never won at Kansas and only has two top five finishes.
Stewart is the favorite for good reason; he won last year. If you back him to win the odds are in your favor when you look at how well he has done on intermediate tracks. Stewart has 18 wins, 77 top five finishes and 123 top 10 finishes. At Kansas he boasts one win, three top five and five top 10 finishes. This all bodes well for another victory for Joe Gibbs, who can devote his undivided attention to Kansas as his Redskins are on a much-needed bye in Week 4 in the NFL.
Pick! No. 20 Tony Stewart (5/1)
NASCAR - LIFELOCK 400 - Odds to Finish in the Top 3
Last week at Dover we weren't even close with our pick of Jeff Gordon finishing in the top three. Greg Biffle and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. rounded out the three fastest racers behind Carl Edwards. A reminder to us gamblers that, just because a driver is not in the chase, it doesn't mean that they are ready to give up.
Forget about winning, can they come in the top three places at Kansas Speedway? You can't ever discount Jeff Gordon, who got a get-out-of-jail-free card, he finished 11th at Dover and somehow still has the lead in the points. But with the points as close as they are now in the Chase standings Gordon won't have the lead for long if he doesn't start placing higher than 11th in the seven remaining Chase races.
I've backed Jeff Gordon twice in the Chase on this wager and twice have been spanked so I am staying away from No. 24 this weekend. Gordon runs well on an intermediate track and has notched an amazing 38 wins, so he is due to win one at some point. Who knows, it might even be here. But I am loathing putting him in my top three finishers based upon the way he has raced in the Chase so far.
Pick! No. 17 Matt Kenseth (2/1)
Pick! No. 20 Tony Stewart (3/2)
Tony Stewart (3/2)
Jeff Gordon (9/5)
Jimmie Johnson (9/5)
Matt Kenseth (2/1)
Carl Edwards (12/5)
Kurt Busch (3/1)
Martin Truex Jr (7/2)
Kyle Busch (7/2)
Ryan Newman (9/2)
Clint Bowyer (9/2)
Denny Hamlin (9/2)
Dale Earnhardt Jr (5/1)
Mark Martin (15/2)
Jeff Burton (15/2)
Kevin Harvick (15/2)
Casey Mears (12/1)
Greg Biffle (12/1)
zx Field (Any Other Driver) (15/1)
Kasey Kahne (15/1)
Juan Pablo Montoya (22/1)
Jamie McMurray (22/1)
Reed Sorenson (22/1)
JJ Yeley (30/1)
Jeff Green (30/1)
Ricky Rudd (30 /1)
Bill Elliott (30/1)
David Gilliland (30/1)
David Ragan (30/1)
Dave Blaney (30/1)
Elliott Sadler (30/1)
David Stremme (30/1)
Bobby Labonte (30/1)
Paul Menard (30/1)
Robby Gordon (30/1)
*odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com
NASCAR - LIFELOCK 400 - Odds to Win
Tony Stewart (5/1)
Jeff Gordon (6/1)
Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
Matt Kenseth (7/1)
Carl Edwards (8/1)
Kurt Busch (10/1)
Kyle Busch (12/1)
Martin Truex Jr (12/1)
Ryan Newman (15/1)
Denny Hamlin (15/1)
Clint Bowyer (15/1)
Dale Earnhardt Jr (18/1)
Kevin Harvick (25/1)
Mark Martin (25/1)
Jeff Burton (25/1)
Greg Biffle (40/1)
Casey Mears (40/1)
Kasey Kahne (50/1)
zx Field (Any Other Driver)50 - 1
Reed Sorenson (75/1)
Juan Pablo Montoya (75/1)
Jamie McMurray (75/1)
David Gilliland (100/1)
Bill Elliott (100/1)
Ricky Rudd (100/1)
Jeff Green (100/1)
JJ Yeley (100/1)
David Ragan (100/1)
Robby Gordon (100 /1)
Elliott Sadler (100/1)
David Stremme (100/1)
Bobby Labonte (100/1)
Paul Menard (100/1)
Dave Blaney (100/1)
*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com