Post 756 Giants - a Solid Bet?
by Trevor Whenham - 08/09/2007
Though the thought of Barry Bonds hitting home run number 756 and owning the most hallowed record in sports is disgusting to me on so many levels, I became resigned to it happening weeks ago. I just wanted it to happen so that I don't have to hear about it anymore, and so that every sporting event I try to watch isn't interrupted to show his every at-bat. In my mind, Hank Aaron will still be the true home run king, and all of this current mess will just be a bad memory.
There is one interesting debate that comes out of this situation, though, and thankfully it has absolutely nothing to do with steroids. The Giants have been pretty awful all year. Really awful, actually. They have a losing record at home, and are really bad on the road. There are many reasons that contribute to the lack of success, but a big part of the reason is the fact that the team has been playing under the Bonds circus all season. It's quite possible that there hasn't been a bigger distraction for a team in the history of sports than the one Bonds created this year. It's accentuated by the fact that he's pretty much the least likable guy on the planet, so teammates are going to be resentful of all of the questions they are asked and all of the scrutiny they are under. Team chemistry has to be pretty terrible by now. The question that emerges from this, then, is what happens to the team once this is all over? Sooner or later, now that this chase is over, the media will go away, and the Giants will get as much attention as a .435 team deserves. That's not much.
If the Giants were to improve once the pressure and the spectacle left town then they could provide an intriguing betting opportunity down the stretch. People don't like them, so the odds are pretty fat every time they play. Right now they are a money pit, but they could provide some serious profits if they were to start to win. But can they?
The Tigers have four everyday hitters batting better than .295. The Yankees have five. So do the Angels. I mention all of that to provide some context to what I have to say next - the most consistent bat in the San Fran lineup belongs to Randy Winn (which is a problem in and of itself), and he is only at .295. Their second best bat (with at least 300 at-bats) is the catcher. Only Minnesota should be making that claim. When the Giants were successful they benefited from Bonds because pitchers had to throw to their top bats because they were consistently avoiding Bonds. Now Bonds isn't nearly as scary (his OPS is still very good, but his average is way down to .269), and there is a decided lack of good hitters to benefit from his seconds. If the team is going to improve down the stretch then the boost isn't going to come from the offense.
That leaves the pitching. Not pretty. Noah Lowry, at 12-7, has been the brightest light in the rotation. The problem is that he left his last start with a forearm problem, needed an MRI (it was clean), and is likely to miss at least one start. Without Lowry it would be even more of an uphill battle for the team.
Rookie Tim Lincecum has been solid at 6-2, and he has a bright future. He's leaving too many games to a questionable bullpen, though, and probably can't be relied upon to carry the team to more wins than they are on pace for. Barry Zito has been an inconsistent waste of money (a lot of money) so far this year. He will likely be better in coming seasons, but he has shown no real signs of life in his first season in what is supposed to be the easier of the two leagues. Matt Cain has been a disaster at 3-12, though his ERA of 3.93 is solid, and he has been the victim of some terrible luck and a shocking lack of run support. Perhaps more than any arm on the roster, Cain stands a chance of improving dramatically and stringing some wins together down the stretch. Matt Morris was no superstar, but he ate up innings, and he was at least a break-even proposition over the long run. His loss at the trade deadline will force a less-reliable pitcher, or combination of pitchers, to fill the gap. That will make a significant improvement down the stretch more difficult.
What about Bonds himself? When Alex Rodriguez was trying to hit his 500th home run last week he was so tight that he went into a very uncharacteristic (in the regular season, at least) 0-22 slump. Slugger Vlad Guerrero got so messed up in his head that he went homerless in 125 at-bats recently, but then hit a second homer in the at-bat immediately following his slump-breaker. That's recent evidence that good players can be uncharacteristically bad when the pressure is turned up, but can perform better once they relax and move on.
Bonds' home runs were coming with great regularity back at the end of April, and it's no coincidence that the team was its' most successful at that same time. As has been the case for much of the last decade, this team's fate is tied directly to how well Bonds does. More than anything, then, that's what it all comes down to - if Bonds shows signs of improving form once the record is in his rearview mirror then the team is probably worth a look down the stretch. If, though, he treats this as the swan song and crowning moment of his career and spends more time gloating and preening than playing, then staying away from the team, or betting against them, is the best course of action. That means that maybe I won't be able to quit paying attention to him after all.