NASCAR Nextel Cup Series: Dover 400 Picks
by Christopher G. Shepard - 09/20/2007
Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart joked last Sunday that the closest they were able to get to Sylvania 300 winner Clint Bowyer was when he burned doughnuts after the race and ran out of gas forcing him to walk to Victory Lane from his disabled car. Even though Clint Bowyer acted like he'd never been there before, it's hard to fault his infectious enthusiasm, as he hadn't been to Victory Lane in a Nextel Cup Chase race before Sunday.
Bowyer was the only driver in 63 previous Cup races never to place higher than third, let alone win a race. Seeded No. 12 in the Chase and set at 9/1 odds by the bookmakers to win (slightly better odds than the field at 15/1), Bowyer's Jack Daniels No. 7 car sat on the pole, only his second in his career, and led the race for 222 of the 300 laps. His win catapulted him from 12th to fourth place in the Chase standings.
This Sunday NASCAR rolls down to the Monster Mile in Delaware for the Dover 400 at Dover Downs International Speedway with Hendricks Racing tandem of Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson tied at the top of the Chase for the Nextel Cup leaderboard.
There is only 15 points that separates Bowyer from first place. It's quite likely, though, that this might be as close as he gets to the top. But for now Bowyer is 10 points behind third-place Tony Stewart and just 15 back of Gordon and Jimmie Johnson. It seems only fitting that Hendricks Racing teammates are tied for the Chase lead heading into Dover (Del.) International Speedway.
One thing is eminently clear from Bowyer's win at Loudon, as we roar into NASCAR's second stop of the post-season at the Dover 400, is that past performance is not really indicative of how a driver will do in their next race. And speaking of next races we'll turn our attention to the Dover 400 and hopefully have a better result picking the winner as out of our two picks to win the Sylvania 300, Denny Hamlin finished 15th and Kurt Busch (who dropped to 12th place in the Chase) finished 25th.
Who will win the Dover 400?
In last weekend's high-octane crapshoot, no one was more surprised than I (except perhaps the man himself) to watch Bowyer cruise to a relatively easy victory at Loudon. Bowyer averaged 110.475 mph, won by 6.943 seconds over Gordon and Stewart, and took home $259,175 for his effort.
Last Sunday Chase drivers took the top seven positions at Loudon, but the gap from first to 12th widened from 60 to 102 points.
While six drivers have notched wins at the Monster Mile, these are the only drivers to have mulitple victories at Dover with Gordon winning four, Johnson winning three, and Stewart winning twice. Keep in mind, though, No. 6 seed Martin Treux, Jr. won the Autism Speaks 400 at Dover by 7.355 seconds this June followed by pole sitter Ryan Newman and Denny Hamlin in third.
Does that mean lightning will strike twice for the Bass Pro Shops driver? Not likely, with a Chase field as wide open as it is right now. To say it is important for for both Gordon and Johnson to do well is an understatement, but it is not mandatory for them to win to win the Chase. Remember Johnson didn't start out quickly last year as he was in eighth place with six races to go. As for Gordon, he'll be racing on sponsor DuPont's home track and nothing pleases a sponsor more than winning at home. Gordon's last win at Dover was in 2001 and he hasn't won here in 21 consecutive races since then.
Last year's defending champion, Jeff Burton, 11th in the Chase and 91 points back of the leaders, is always a threat, and indeed has done well at Dover with six top five finishes. Whether he can repeat as Champion remains to be seen, but there are 11 other drivers that will do their best to make sure that won't happen. Certainly, handicapping the Chase for the Nextel Cup is anyone's Chase to win. However, I don't really see someone not in the Chase winning at Dover. The key at Dover is for the Chase contenders to avoid trouble. And while I think Gordon, Stewart and Johnson are the sexy picks, I have to go with my gut on this one and look to Carl Edwards to rebound from last week's accident and having to race his second car at New Hampshire. Carl Edwards does well on the concrete tracks and look for him to use what he learned at Bristol and bring it to Dover as he bests Gordon and Stewart for the win. Odds for the winner of this race are listed below.
Pick! No. 99 Carl Edwards (10/1)
NASCAR - DOVER 400 - Odds to Finish in the Top 3
If we can learn one thing from the Sylvania 300 it's that the Hendricks Racing tandem of Johnson and Gordon will be a fight to the finish. Despite not finishing in the top three at Loudon, Johnson's sixth place was good enough to keep him tied with Gordon in the points lead for the Nextel Cup after one race. Jeff Gordon, who started out 18th, and Tony Stewart, who started in sixth, eventually edged out Stewart for second place. However, neither challenged Bowyer for the win. I see Gordon and Stewart in this scenario again for the Dover 400. Rather than fighting for second this time it could be for the checkered flag.
I don't expect Bowyer to win back-to-back races or even end up in the trop three (bounce theory) as I look at Sportsbook.com's odds for the driver to finish the Dover 400 in the top three. For my bet to cash, the driver I select will have to finish in the top three. And after last weekend I can't see not backing either Jeff Gordon (finished in the top five 11 times at Dover) or Tony Stewart (in the top five nine times at Dover) at 9/5 odds. Chances are pretty good they'll both end up in the top three. Having learned my lesson last week courtesy of Kurt Busch, I am on…
Pick! No. 24 Jeff Gordon (9/5)
Tony Stewart (9/5)
Jimmie Johnson (9/5)
Jeff Gordon (9/5)
Denny Hamlin (2/1)
Martin Truex Jr (12/5)
Carl Edwards (3/1)
Kurt Busch (3/1)
Kyle Busch (7/2)
Matt Kenseth (7/2)
Ryan Newman (7/2)
Dale Earnhardt Jr (9/2)
Clint Bowyer (9/2)
Kevin Harvick (6/1)
Jeff Burton (15/2 )
Kasey Kahne (9/1)
zx Field (Any Other Driver) (15/1)
Regan Smith (15/1)
Greg Biffle (15/1)
Casey Mears (18/1)
Reed Sorenson (30/1)
Paul Menard (30/1)
Bobby Labonte (30/1)
David Stremme (30/1)
Elliott Sadler (30 /1)
Jamie McMurray (30/1)
Dave Blaney (30/1)
JJ Yeley (30/1)
Jeff Green (30/1)
Kenny Wallace (30/1)
Bill Elliott (30/1)
David Gilliland (30/1)
David Ragan (30/1)
Juan Pablo Montoya (30/1)
Robby Gordon (30/1)
*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com
NASCAR - DOVER 400 - Odds to Win
Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
Jeff Gordon (6/1)
Tony Stewart (6/1)
Denny Hamlin (7/1)
Martin Truex Jr (8/1)
Carl Edwards (10/1)
Kurt Busch (10/1)
Matt Kenseth (12/1)
Kyle Busch (12/1)
Ryan Newman (12/1)
Dale Earnhardt Jr (15/1)
Clint Bowyer (15/1)
Kevin Harvick (20/1)
Jeff Burton (25/1)
Kasey Kahne (30/)
Mark Martin (50/1)
Greg Biffle (50/1)
zx Field (Any Other Driver) (50/1)
Casey Mears (60/1)
JJ Yeley (100/1)
Jeff Green (100/1)
Kenny Wallace (100/1)
Bill Elliott (100/1)
David Gilliland (100/1)
David Ragan (100/1)
Juan Pablo Montoya (100/1)
Jamie McMurray (100/1)
Dave Blaney (100/1)
Robby Gordon (100/1)
Elliott Sadler (100/1)
David Stremme (100/1)
Reed Sorenson (100/1)
Paul Menard (100/1)
Bobby Labonte (100/1)
*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com