Making Money From Baseball Props
by Trevor Whenham - 08/07/2007
If you like betting baseball but can't get enough action to keep your juices flowing from just the run lines and money lines, then it may be time for you to branch out into more of the props that are available. The advantage of prop bets for some people is that you don't necessarily have to handicap an entire game and all the elements involved in doing that to make a successful wager. You can just focus on the relative aspects of the game, and that can allow you to make a decision more quickly. Two of the props that are easy to find and which definitely fit into this category are betting on the first team to score, and betting whether there will be a run scored in the first inning. I group the two together because, in a lot of ways, they are similar.
You have to decide for yourself whether these bets make sense for you over the long term and whether you can ultimately be a winner playing them. Unlike some true sucker bets, I think that it is more than possible for a smart bettor to consistently find value opportunities in these plays and to come out ahead in the long run. You would have to be disciplined, though, and only pick spots that make sense. To do that you would need criteria to help you select plays that may work. Here, for each of the plays, are some places to start:
Team to score first
Offense from top of order - It seems obvious that both teams will be batting from the top of the order to start the game, so the first place to look is at which players will come to bat for each team. If a manager, for example, likes to play smallball early on in a game to get a lead, and he has a lineup in place that can execute that style, then that team may need more of a look. If the lineup has had to be juggled because of injuries or suspensions and the leadoff hitter isn't comfortable up top then it may be a different story.
Recent offensive production - Teams get hot at the plate and they also get ice cold. Keeping track of the recent form of the two teams involved can often show you a position where there is value just because of the opposite streaks the two teams are in.
Pitcher's success early in games - Some pitchers take an inning or two to find their stuff and get comfortable. Others tend to start off strong and may fade later in a game. By knowing what style of game the two pitchers tend to throw you may find an opportunity. It may be, for example, that a fireballer is sharp early while his arm is the freshest, while a junk pitcher may take more time to loosen up and get the motion happening.
Recent pitcher performance - Perhaps more important than recent offensive form is how the pitchers are playing of late. If a hurler has struggled to get anyone out recently, and you suspect that that could be because of an ongoing problem (slight injury, lack of confidence, etc.), then it may make sense to pick against him again here.
Can you discount the road team? - The road team has the clear advantage in this bet. They get to bat first, and they will always get another opportunity before the home squad does. It's more likely, then, that they will score first, and the odds often reflect this reality. You need to look at this in two different ways. First, if you like the road team anyway, then the extra at bats are a bonus, and you should consider value accordingly. If you really don't like the road team, though, and you think that the home team will score first despite their disadvantage, then you can often find excellent prices on the home team. Good prices and nice payoffs are what this is all about, after all.
Is there a team you clearly favor in the game? - This sometimes seems to be overlooked when people look at these bets. If you see one team having a clear advantage in the game as a whole, then it would often seem to be the case that you would also see it as likely that they would score first. If you see a clear advantage in the game that the public hasn't caught on to then you may find value in this bet.
Run in first inning
A lot of the ideas from above can be applied here equally well. The form of the pitchers and the top of both orders are even more relevant here than they are in the other bet. If a pitcher is hot, for example, and you don't expect him to give up many runs on the day, then it is likely a good bet that he won't give up any in the first inning.
Weather - The elements can play a significant factor in the offensive output in a game. By checking the weather conditions before pacing your bets you may be able to find a situation with a strong wind that will help the hitters, or one that will keep the ball in the park. Cold weather may cause a pitcher to take longer to get warm and get into form. The weather can often give you a hint as to whether an early run is likely.
Recent games between same teams - If the first two games of a series have been shootouts, then it may be likely that the third one will be as well. If neither team has been able to hit a thing then that may continue. The recent past can often give a glimpse into the immediate future.
Do both teams have the potential to score early? - When you make this bet you ultimately don't care which team scores in the first as long as one does. It makes more sense, then, to make this bet in a situation where both teams are indicating that they could score an early run instead of just one.