NASCAR Nextel Cup Series: Bank of America 500 Picks
by Christopher G. Shepard - 10/12/2007
Jimmie Johnson hopes that history repeats as he looks to take the lead from Jeff Gordon under the lights on Saturday night as NSACAR goes home to Lowes Motor Speedway in Charlotte for the fifth stop on the10 races in the Chase for the Nextel Cup. The good news for autosport investors and adrenilin junkies is that this is not a Car of Tomorrow race so you won't have to wait until the Bank of America 500 is almost over for some excitement.
Jeff Gordon said he had never yawned in a racecar before Talladega. And, indeed, he played possum, sniffing around the back porch of the race while showing little interest in getting caught up with potential disasters due to CoT modifications or inexperienced drivers. His patience (boredom) combined with guile and cunning, was rewarded and Gordon won his fifth race of the season, and moved to the top of the Chase leaderboard once again. He leads Johnson by nine points with six races remaining in the Chase. Something tells me that seeing Johnson and Gordon make like "Shake-n-Bake" for the rest of the season is likely.
Even splashed across 42 inches of High Definition it was rather dull viewing for the first three quarters of the race with the Chase cars holding back to avoid the inevitable pile-up that happened on lap 145 when 11 cars crashed, taking out Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, Jamie McMurray, David Reutimann Paul Menard, Bobby Labonte, Dave Blaney, Brian Vickers, David Ragan and Robby Gordon.
The wrecks were a crushing blow to both Busch and Kenseth's Chase hopes. In fact, the NASCAR Gods seem to have it in for Busch who once again found himself in the wrong place at the wrong time. Two weeks ago Busch wrecked after he was nudged by Dale Earnhardt Jr. Now one of the favorites to win the Chase, Busch has gone from 10 points out of the lead two weeks ago to seventh place in the standings, 260 points out.
Who will win the BofA 500?
The restrictor plate king Jeff Gordon cashed bettors' tickets to win last Sunday at Talladega as a 5/1 favorite when he made a great move on the last lap (the only lap he led the race), taking Tony Stewart over the top and pushing into the lead for the win. This was Gordon's 12th restrictor plate win. Close behind him, Jimmie Johnson, his Hendrick Motorsports teammate, finished second in the race and now trails Gordon by nine points on the Chase leaderboard.
My pick to win at Talladega was Dale Earnhardt, Jr. who, much to the fans approval, led the race for 31 laps. Unfortunately, on lap 136 he blew his sixth engine of the year and finished the race in 40th. He wasn't alone as two other DEI/RCR engines in cars driven by Martin Truex Jr. and Ward Burton, blew up at Talladega. This hurt Truex's Chase chances as he tumbled two spots to 10th with six races remaining. My "Finish in the Top Three" pick was Tony Stewart (3/2), who had a chance to finish in the top three but lost any hope of cashing on the last lap and ended up in No. 8 place. We'll see if we can get back on track this week.
At the 1.5-mile quad-oval in Charlotte I think you have to look at experience and who traditionally gets the job done. That person is No. 48 Jimmie Johnson. And he is more than very good at Lowes. He is known as the King of LMS and for good reason, with five wins, eight top fives, and 11 top 10s with an average finish of 6.2. This track is where he feels most comfortable and where it began for him last year. He finished no worse than second in the last six races of 2006 and has five wins at LMS. His racing partner, Jeff Gordon, has not run well recently at Charlotte but does have three wins at LMS.
Pick! Jimmie Johnson (4/1)
NASCAR -BofA 500 - Odds to Finish in the Top 3
If you are looking for a decent long shot, and you think you can beat the house, you might want to consider the "other" Hendricks Motorsports driver in the No. 25 car, Casey Mears. He could be a live 'dog at 25/1 odds. Keep in mind that Mears won his first race here back in May at the Coca Cola 600 and has shown some consistency. He came in sixth at Talladega, fourth at Kansas and sixth at the Dodge Dealers. But I'm not ready to throw good money after bad and go against Johnson to win at LMS. However, considering how well Mears has been handling that Natrional Guard Chevrolet I think he will have his best chance to crack the top three places at LMS.
Pick! Jimmie Johnson (6/5)
Pick! Casey Mears (15/2)
NASCAR -BofA 500 - Matchup
Sportsbook.com is offering many head-to-head driver matchups for the Bank of America 500. While you won't catch me investing in too many matchups, there are two I like. Jeff Burton and Casey Mears are both set at -115. Burton sits in 12th place in the Chase and for all intents and purposes is out of the running. Meanwhile, Mears has been quietly become Mr. Consistent. I look for Mears to finish ahead of Burton.
Jeff Burton -115
Casey Mears -115 Pick!
The second match-up I really like is Johnson over his teammate Gordon. Considering Johnson's fortunes and Gordon's recent woes at LMS, I'm investing in the favorite.
Jeff Gordon +120
Jimmie Johnson -150 Pick!
NASCAR - BofA 500 - Odds to Finish in the Top 3
Jimmie Johnson (6/5)
Jeff Gordon (9/5)
Tony Stewart (2/1)
Matt Kenseth (5/2)
Denny Hamlin (7/2)
Kyle Busch (7/2)
Carl Edwards (7/2)
Kurt Busch (7/2)
Dale Earnhardt Jr (9/2)
Martin Truex Jr (11/2)
Ryan Newman (11/2)
Clint Bowyer (11/2)
Jeff Burton (15/2)
Kevin Harvick (15/2)
Greg Biffle (15/2)
zx Field (Any Other Driver) (15/2)
Casey Mears (15/2)
Mark Martin (9/1)
Kasey Kahne (12/1)
Juan Pablo Montoya (18/1)
Jamie McMurray (18/1)
Reed Sorenson (18/1)
JJ Yeley (30/1)
Jeff Green (30/1)
Ricky Rudd (30/1)
Bill Elliott (30/1)
David Ragan (30/1)
David Gilliland (30/1)
Dave Blaney (30/1)
Elliott Sadler (30/1)
David Stremme (30/1)
Bobby Labonte (30/1)
Paul Menard (30/1)
Robby Gordon (30/1)
*odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com
NASCAR -BofA 500 - Odds to Win
Jimmie Johnson (4/1)
Jeff Gordon (6 /1)
Tony Stewart (7/1)
Matt Kenseth (8 /1)
Kyle Busch (12/1)
Kurt Busch (12 /1)
Carl Edwards (12/1)
Denny Hamlin (12/1)
Dale Earnhardt Jr (15/1)
Clint Bowyer (18 /1)
Ryan Newman (18/1)
Martin Truex Jr (18 /1)
Kevin Harvick (25/1)
Casey Mears (25/1)
Greg Biffle (25/1)
zx Field (Any Other Driver) (25/1)
Jeff Burton (25/1)
Mark Martin30/1)
Kasey Kahne (40/1)
Reed Sorenson (60/1)
Juan Pablo Montoya (60/1)
Jamie McMurray (60/1)
Bobby Labonte (100/1)
David Stremme (100/1)
Elliott Sadler (100 /1)
Robby Gordon (100/1)
Dave Blaney (100 /1)
Paul Menard (100 /1)
Jeff Green (100/1)
Ricky Rudd (100 /1)
Bill Elliott (100/1)
David Gilliland (100/1)
David Ragan (100/1)
JJ Yeley (100/1)
*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com