2025 Super Bowl Predictions with Futures Odds

by Spencer Toth - 1/22/2025

Super Bowl predictions George Karlaftis Kansas City Chiefs

All of a sudden, there are just three games left in the NFL season. The NFC and AFC championship games have been set, as four teams are still alive in their quest to claim Super Bowl LIX. In the AFC, Kansas City and Buffalo will square off as Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen write another chapter in their ever-growing rivalry. In the NFC, two NFC East rivals square off for the third time this season after splitting a pair of high-scoring affairs earlier this year. Can the Cinderella story for Jayden Daniels continue, or will Saquon Barkley and the Eagles shred apart the Commanders on the ground? The prices have been slashed as the contenders head into the penultimate weekend of the season, but there is still money to be made on a couple of these contenders.

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Philadelphia Eagles +185

The Philadelphia Eagles are now the Super Bowl favorites after the Washington Commanders sent the Detroit Lions home. They have -280 moneyline odds against the Commanders, which implies they will be +112 underdogs in the Super Bowl if they advance.

Offense:

The Eagles towering offensive line has been the driving force in their success. The Eagles pick up an average of 2.0 yards before contact when they run up the middle, well above the league average of 1.1 yards. Saquon Barkley is the most dominant running back in the league. And when he picks up speed on the ground, he becomes impossible to slow down. They finished second in the league in rushing yards, and there is no doubt the Commanders will have their hands full on the ground. However, there are massive question marks surrounding Jalen Hurts. Not only is Hurts injured, but he has been ineffective at moving the ball down the field. A snowy game in Philadelphia can be blamed. However, when star receivers are reading on the sidelines, it is a bad look for the offense. Hurts must get AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith engaged early and often in this one to keep the Commanders secondary honest.

Defense:

The Eagles lost major pieces on the defensive side of the ball in the offseason, but a pair of rookies have seamlessly plugged the gaps. Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell have been excellent for the Eagles and will both finish inside the top five in DROY voting. Linebacker Zack Baun has been another massive injection for this defense, as he has seen his career revitalized after a dull four years with the Saints. The Eagles defense can match the physical tone set by their offense, and they will have their hands full for the rest of the postseason. Shutting down a banged up Jordan Love and an aging Matthew Stafford was impressive, but this defense hasn’t been tested yet. Jayden Daniels followed by either Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen will stretch this unit thin.

Betting Advice:

The Eagles simply aren’t worth a bet at these odds. While the +112 implied Super Bowl price is certainly fair against either of the AFC teams, the -280 moneyline against the Commanders is dragging down our profits. Washington has already upset the Lions and Buccaneers on the road this season, while the rest of the NFL has gone 0-8 away from home. The Eagles have the more complete roster at this stage of the season, but their lack of a dominant quarterback will cost them in the playoffs. Jalen Hurts is dealing with multiple injuries, and a Kenny Pickett vs Jayden Daniels matchup will only have one winner. I’m not writing the Eagles completely off if they can beat the Commanders and get two weeks of rest, but a +185 price at this time doesn’t offer enough upside to take a shot.

Kansas City Chiefs +220

The Kansas City Chiefs are looking for the three-peat after easily swatting aside the Houston Texans in the Divisional round. They are -130 favorites against the Bills, which implies they will be -125 favorites in the Super Bowl.

Offense:

The Kansas City offense leaves plenty to be desired, but it is hard to look past Patrick Mahomes at this stage of his career. Mahomes has been dominant in the playoffs and has been able to win games regardless of who he is throwing the ball to. Travis Kelce has had a very slow season but exploded for 117 yards on 7 catches with a touchdown to kick off the postseason. Kansas City has the speed on the outside to spread the field, and Mahomes undoubtedly has a few more tricks up his sleeve. It is clear this offense isn’t as dominant as they were during the Tyreek Hill era, but they have been just as effective at winning football games. Patrick Mahomes has collected lots of criticism due to some questionable referee decisions, but overlooking the greatest quarterback of this generation would be a mistake.

Defense:

The Kansas City offense will stay in the spotlight, but it is this defense that has been the driving force for their success. Not only has this defense been dominant all season, but their ability to get stops when they need it most has been the difference-maker. Pass rusher Chris Jones draws a double team on most plays, which leaves space for players like George Karlaftis to find a home. They allowed just 19.2 PPG this season but were exposed by Josh Allen the last time these two teams met. Kansas City has leaned on their defense all year long and will need another pair of strong showings if they are to win a third straight Super Bowl.

Betting Advice:

If it isn’t broke, don’t fix it. The Kansas City Chiefs have been doubted over the last three years, but they keep finding ways to win football games. Patrick Mahomes may not have a full complement of weapons to choose from, but his effectiveness in the pocket cannot be denied. This is arguably the best defense Mahomes has had to work with in his career, and the motivation to win three straight Super Bowls has been apparent. The Bills pose a daunting test in the AFC Championship game, but the Chiefs will be able to win with home field advantage. In the Super Bowl, Kansas City will be confident against either NFC champion too. This may be a boring pick, but it is the right one to make.

Buffalo Bills: +250

The Bills will be looking to reach the Super Bowl for the first time since their infamous four Super Bowl losing streak in the 1990s. They are +110 underdogs against the Chiefs, and this line implies they will be -130 favorites in the Super Bowl.

Offense:

Josh Allen has been a one-man army for the Bills and will need to play his best once again to reach, let alone win, the Super Bowl. Allen has opted to get the job done with his legs and physical frame more often than not this season, but he is still capable of finding his teammates down the field. No one has stepped up as a true WR1 in the absence of Stefon Diggs, which has allowed Allen to spread the ball across his offense. The Bills convert on third down, convert in the red zone, and have been able to convert their long drives into touchdowns this season. The Bills are well aware of their 0-3 record against Mahomes in the playoffs, but the offense will be confident that they can match their 30 points posted against the Chiefs earlier this season.

Defense:

The Bills Super Bowl run was derailed by their defensive injuries last season, and they are far healthier for this year’s postseason. Linebacker Matt Milano is the heart of this defense, and his return to the field is a big reason why they have been able to stop the run. The secondary is a concern for the Bills. However, if they can force pass-first situations on late downs, their pass rush will disrupt Mahomes’ rhythm. Tackle Ed Oliver will need to play a major role, and maybe there is a little Super Bowl magic left for Von Miller, too.

Betting Advice:

Look away Bills fans, but I’m selecting the Bills at +250 odds as the worst pick to make at this stage of the season. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will not be losing at home, and it is puzzling to see Buffalo with nearly identical Super Bowl odds as the two-time reigning champions. Allen has been able to will his team over the line this year, but a rock solid Chiefs defense will be a different story. A regular season victory at home is not enough to convince me the Bills can walk into Arrowhead in the playoffs and walk away with a win. The future will remain bright during the Josh Allen era, but this is not the year the Bills will finally get over the hump.

Washington Commanders +750

The Washington Commanders finished 4-13 last year and had +15000 odds to win the Super Bowl at the start of the season. They are now in the NFC Championship game for the first time since 1991 as their Cinderella story continues to be written. They are +230 underdogs against the Eagles, meaning this price implies they will be +155 underdogs in the Super Bowl.

Offense:

Jayden Daniels has brought hope to a franchise that was giving up on success after two decades without a playoff victory. Washington has not one, but two playoff wins this season, and the future is bright for the Commanders. While it is easy to think about how Daniels is a rookie, it doesn’t change the fact they have a very difficult test in Philadelphia this week. Daniels will need to protect his body against a towering defensive line, and an injury to guard Sam Cosmi against the Lions will not help his cause. Terry McLaurin will undoubtedly play a major role, but he will need support from his emerging WR2 in Dyami Brown. McLaurin and Brown have made countless highlight reel catches for this offense this season, as Kliff Kingsbury has done an excellent job at getting the most out of this unit.

Defense:

It is easy to talk about Jayden Daniels and the offensive turnaround for this team, but the defensive improvements have been just as impressive. Dan Quinn has completely changed the Washington defense that finished 32nd in the league last season. Linebackers Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu have been incredible, while the defensive front has been able to generate the pressure needed to disrupt the opposition. However, the Washington secondary has struggled, and they will be forced to double-team big AJ Brown more often than not. It’s hard to trust any of the Washington corners in single coverage, and the Commanders will need to interrupt the quarterback's rhythm before he finds the open man down the field.

Betting Advice:

I have been writing praise about this team all season long, and I am not about to stop now. Washington won a pair of road games as +150 and +400 underdogs this postseason, and the +230 price tag against the Eagles will not change their mentality in this matchup. This team has been playing like they have nothing to lose (which they don’t), and it is impossible to doubt Daniels and his rise to the top. He will look to become the first rookie quarterback to start a Super Bowl, and I expect him to do just that. This +750 price will allow us to hedge in the big game against either of the AFC juggernauts. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the Commanders have all the pieces you are looking for when taking a big underdog, and there is plenty of upside with this team.

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Start:	January 28, 2025 @ 10:00 PM
Expert:	Nick Menken
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2025 Super Bowl Predictions with Futures Odds

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