NFL Highlights, Week 12
by Joshua Fairbanks - 11/28/2006
Doc's Sports will look at the most important NFL highlights from a betting perspective each week of the football season. Here is where you can find out who covered, where the lines moved and also which teams were hot against the total.
New England Defeated Chicago Sunday, 17-13.
The most anticipated weekend match-up turned out to be nothing but an average game. Both teams combined for a total of nine turnovers, many of which came in the red zone. Grossman showed again that when he is off, he is really off. For sports bettors, this game was a tough decision. Both the Bears and the Patriots are an even 7-4 ATS this season. Also, the Pats are 2-9 against the total this year where the Bears are 7-4. Both teams came into this game with such opposing trends that choosing a side in this game was difficult.
New York Jets defeated Houston Sunday, 26-11.
For the third week in a row, the New York Jets continue to look very impressive against some quality teams. Two weeks ago, the Jets surprised bettors by taking down the Pats. Last week, the Jets had numerous chances to take down the Bears. This week, the Jets continued to look good. Weeks 1-7 showed the Jets covering the over at a perfect 7-0. In their last four games, they have gone under four times in a row. Looks like the bookies may have made the correct adjustment here. Is this new trend something that we can expect the rest of the season?
Tennessee Defeated New York Giants Sunday, 24-21.
This game was easily the best comeback story of the year. Many bettors saw this game as a chance to take a small three-point spread with the Giants. At halftime, Eli hopefuls were reclining in their chairs trying to figure out what to do with their winnings. Of course, maybe these people didn't realize that the Giants are falling apart. Tennessee scored 24 points in the fourth quarter capping off a huge victory. The Giant's are now 0-4 ATS during the last four weeks. In three of those games, the Giants were favored to win. Tennessee is now 6-2 ATS in the last eight weeks under Vince Young. They are also a very strong 8-3 this season posting the 'over'. Tennessee's strong trends may have bettors leaning toward them next week.
Baltimore Defeated Pittsburgh Sunday, 27-0.
If you had Baltimore's defense on your fantasy team this week, you were not disappointed. Baltimore found a way to sack Big Ben nine times during Sunday's game. The Raven's also found a way to hold RB Willie Parker to 22 yards on the ground. Baltimore is now 8-2 this season and 4-1 ATS in the last five weeks. On the other hand, It looks like lights out for the Steelers playoff hopes after this week. The Steelers are now 3-8 ATS this season showing they are not a team to side with. In contrast, books moved the line from 4.5 to three points by Sunday. The bettors thought the Steelers were due, but the smart money was on the Ravens.
Seattle Defeated Green Bay Monday, 34-24.
On Monday morning most sports books saw a leap in points for Seattle. The line opened up early in the week as Seattle was listed as an eight-point favorite. Saturday, the line remained relatively constant, holding at about 8.5. By Monday morning the line had jumped to 10 points. I assume this line jump was due to the fact that Favre might not play. There was also the consideration that Hasselback may be ineffective and rusty. Wouldn't a half-abled Favre balance out with a very rusty Hasselback? I mean, did you really think Favre wouldn't play? It turned out that the late line jump was actually just right. Favre was mediocre, and it took 30 minutes of rust before Hasselback got into his rhythm. Yet another ugly Monday Night Football outing resulted in a push.