by Robert Ferringo - 03/27/2006
Regular season guts but no postseason glory. That's been the story of the National League Central over the past few years. The NL representative in the World Series in each of the last two seasons has come from this division, but they've been trounced by the American League in each instance.
Given that St. Louis still holds the most talent in the Senior Circuit, a third straight team from the Central in the Fall Classic could be in the cards.
Besides the Cardinals, the hard-luck Cubs and depleted Astros will play the role of token resistance. But much like their AL counterparts, the Central Division is full of small-market clubs that just can't muster the funds to topple the Big Boys.
Here's one man's look at the NL Central:
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS2005 Record: 100-62 (first)
Odds to win NL Pennant: 11/5
Odds to win World Series: 7/1
Wins Over/Under: 92.5
Strengths: People forget that they won 100 games last year without Scott Rolen. He is back and healthy, giving St. Louis the best 3-4-5 combination in the Majors. Their pitching is still "good enough" and the bullpen was bolstered with the addition of Braden Looper as a setup man.
Weaknesses: There really isn't a weakness on this roster. Perhaps it's Tony LaRussa. They still need a leftfielder, and could definitely benefit from some more speed. They need the ability to manufacture runs in the postseason, which they haven't proven they can do.
Outlook: April to August, they've been the best team in baseball for the past five years. The trouble is that the Big Bucks are earned in September and October.
HOUSTON ASTROS
2005 Record: 89-73 (second)
Odds to win NL Pennant: 9/1
Odds to win World Series: 30/1
Wins Over/Under: 82.5
Strengths: The defending NL champions retained the core of last year's club and the front of the rotation is still solid. Morgan Ensberg blossomed in 2005 and Preston Wilson has the potential to put up some Rockies-like numbers in Houston's tiny ballpark.
Weaknesses: The loss of Wade Miller last year, and Roger Clemens imminent retirement has depleted their once copious stable of arms. The offense struggled mightily to score runs in 2005, and their only significant upgrade was to get the oft-injured Wilson. Bagwell is about to retire, and Biggio just turned 40. This season is the end of an era.
Outlook: I don't think this is a .500 team. I think Roger Clemens knows that they don't have a realistic shot at making it back to the World Series so he's bailing on them.
CHICAGO CUBS
2005 Record: 79-83 (fourth)
Odds to win NL Pennant: 5/1
Odds to win World Series: 14/1
Wins Over/Under: 86.5
Strengths: The MVP argument last year was between Andruw Jones and Albert Pujols, but the best player in the NL was Derek Lee. The Cubs upgraded their outfield - big time - by snagging Juan Pierre and Jacque Jones, and Aramis Ramirez has been a sizzling 21-for-35 this spring.
Weaknesses: Well, they're the Cubs. That's a weakness. At least Mark Prior had the courtesy not to wait until after millions blindly took him on their fantasy teams to start with his elbow issues. Kerry Wood isn't far behind on the injury train. Without their paper aces, the pitching staff will once again be exposed.
Outlook: I saw one site that posted the Cubs as 5/1 to win the NL Pennant, but only had the over under at 86.5, what does that tell you?
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
2005 Record: 81-81 (third)
Odds to win NL Pennant: 18/1
Odds to win World Series: 30/1
Wins Over/Under: 80.5
Strengths: The outfield is one of the best in the Bigs, with Brady Clark, Carlos Lee and Geoff Jenkins all putting up monster numbers. Pitching coach Mike Maddox is outstanding, and their staff is improving.
Weaknesses: The infield has only one player who has spent a whole season in the Majors. The defense is porous, and there are a couple of retreads filling out the back end of the rotation.
Outlook: They keep inching towards competing, and were one of the big surprises of '05, but I don't see where they are ready to take the next step. I expect this to be a very streaky, very up-and-down crew this season.
CINCINATTI REDS
2005 Record: 73-89 (fifth)
Odds to win NL Pennant: 45/1
Odds to win World Series: 100/1
Wins Over/Under: 73.5
Strengths: They are an American League team trapped in the National League. Their OPS, runs per game, and home runs were all way above the curve and with Adam Dunn mashing in the middle that shouldn't change any time soon.
Weaknesses: They still have a severe imbalance on their club - too much hitting and not nearly enough pitching. At least they realized it this winter, and tried to make some moves to address the situation. But now they're left with just two injury-riddled outfielders, Dunn and Gruff Jr.
Outlook: They are victims of the Great American Ballpark. It's too small to contain their offense, but too small for their pitchers to be effective either. Basically, it will take all five of their starters having career years for the Reds to have any hope.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
2005 Record: 67-95 (sixth)
Odds to win NL Pennant: 42/1
Odds to win World Series: 100/1
Wins Over/Under: 74.5
Strengths: New manager Jim Tracy should bring stability to a team in perpetual transition. They added some pop and veteran leadership by acquiring Jeremy Burnitz, Sean Casey, and Joe Ronda. They also have a slew of lefties, which could make them an attractive trading partner.
Weaknesses: All those vets I mentioned are on the downside. They're more stop gaps, and pickups to tout to the fan base that "See, we're trying to win!"
Outlook: The Pirates have the longest active streak of consecutive losing seasons (13) of any team in the four major professional sports. Get the champagne ready to celebrate No. 14. But hey, at least the Steelers won the Super Bowl!
Questions or comments for Robert? E-mail him at robert@docsports.com or check out his Insider Page here.
The views expressed in this article are not necessarily those of Doc's baseball picks service.