by Robert Ferringo - 07/22/2005
The NFC East is a microcosm of the entire NFL. Tradition. Passion. Rivalry. Hall-of-Fame coaches. Superstar players. Teams that have mastered the salary cap, and teams that are reckless financially. But more than anything else, this division is representative of the league because it is one sprained knee, holdout, or breakout player away from being completely up for grabs.
The Philadelphia Eagles, coming off a Super Bowl berth and four straight trips to the NFC Championship Game, is obviously still the favorite. They have experience and skill, and have averaged 13 wins (including playoffs) over each of the past five seasons.
However, cracks are beginning to show. The largest of these fissures involves a certain head case wideout whose initials are T.O. Terrell Owens missed all of the Eagles offseason workouts after he and his agent - the soulless blood-sucker that is Drew Rosenhaus - decided that they want to renegotiate his contract after only one year of a seven-year deal. Owens is threatening a long holdout if he doesn't get his way, even though he was practically begging to go to Philly just last summer.
But this is what you get with T.O. - the talent comes with the distraction. Not only has he whined about money, but he also called out Donovan McNabb this offseason. Owens accused McNabb - the undisputed leader of this team and one of the nicest guys in the game - of costing his team the Super Bowl and of being a lackey for Eagles upper management. I'm fairly certain that Owens is bluffing and won't miss any regular season games, but he's still rocking a boat that sailed pretty smoothly without him.
Other than the Eagles, just three teams (the Dallas Cowboys in 2003 and the New York Giants in 2000 and 2002) in this division have posted a winning record since 2000. The three wannabe's are still very unpredictable, and if any of them catch a break or two I could see Philly's stranglehold on the top of the division come to an end. That, or those three could all finish 6-10 again.
I think the Cowboys have the best chance of making a move this year, and it appears the Bill Parcells is attempting to make a last stand. He has turned over a good amount of the roster, and convinced Jerry Jones to spend $30 million on free agents this offseason. Parcells has reunited with Drew Bledsoe, whom he coached to a Super Bowl with New England. Finally, Parcells is also changing his defense to a 3-4 alignment (which he's played everywhere he's coached) and spent his two first-round picks on players to fit into that scheme. If these moves work out the way that the future HOF coach hopes they will, the Boys could be back in town.
The Giants and the Washington Redskins are both very similar in terms of strengths and weaknesses. They both possess outstanding running backs, improved offensive lines and solid defenses. However, they're both suspect at the quarterback position. Quite simply, whichever of those teams gets better play from their signal caller will finish higher in the standings.
2005 NFC East preview
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES2004 Record: 15-4 (9-2 home, 6-2 road)
2004 Rankings: 9th offense (7 pass, 16 rush); 10th defense (12 pass, 16 rush)
2004 Against the Spread: 12-7 (8-3 home, 4-4 road); 5-13-1 vs. points (3-7-1 home, 2-6 road)
2005 Odds: 13/2 to win the Super Bowl; 11/5 to win NFC title; 1/3 to win NFC East; 11.5 is O/U win total
2005 Strength of Schedule: 30th (.453 opponents 2004 win %)
Returning starters: 20 (10 offense, 10 defense)
Key acquisitions: Correll Buckhalter (returns from injured reserve)
Key departures: Derrick Burgess, DE (to Oakland); Jermane Mayberry, G (to N.O.); Freddie Mitchell, WR (to K.C.); Ike Reese, LB (to Atlanta) Key stat: Philly's defense was second in points given up (per game) at 16.2.
Offense: Even without Owens this offense has experience and confidence. The offensive line is solid and intact, and with Brian Westbrook they posses one of the league's top all-purpose backs. However, depth is a problem. Without Owens they can survive, but Westbrook will have to shoulder the load. However, he had only one game with over 23 touches and if he gets hurt the Eagles are screwed.
Defense: Resigning Jeremiah Trotter was a good move for them and solidifies the run defense. Their secondary is still one of the top two or three in football, and that should make up for any shakiness in the front seven. They lost Reese and Burgess, and tackle Corey Simon has voiced displeasure about his contract situation. Their defense hasn't been dominant at any time during their current four-year run, and won't be this year.
X-factor: Obviously it's Owens. A close second is McNabb. I think McNabb is That Good, but is he good enough where he can get it done without Owens and Westbrook? Philly fans are hoping they don't have to find out.
Outlook: They beat the bad teams, and they will again this year with the third easiest schedule. Over the last five years they've won 65 games, but 45 of those wins (70 percent) have come against teams with losing records. Fortunately, their division is shaky again this year and the Eagles have the most talent. Beware of history though. The last 10 teams to lose the Super Bowl haven't even made it back to the conference title game.
DALLAS COWBOYS
2004 Record: 6-10 (4-4 home, 2-6 road)
2004 Rankings: 14th offense (15 pass, 20 rush); 16th defense (21 pass, 10 rush)
2004 Against the Spread: 7-9 (4-4 home, 3-5 road); 9-7 vs. pts. (3-5 h, 6-2 r)
2005 Odds: 33/1 to win SB; 14/1 to win NFC; 4/1 to win NFC East; 8.5 wins O/U
2005 Strength of Schedule: 26th (.477 opp. win %)
Returning starters: 19 (10 offense, 9 defense)
Key acquisitions: Drew Bledsoe, QB (from Buffalo); Jason Ferguson, DT (from N.Y. Jets); Anthony Henry, CB (from Cleveland); Marco Rivera, G (from Green Bay), Anthony Thomas, RB (from Chicago).
Key departures: Richie Anderson, FB; Dexter Coakley, LB (to St. Louis); Marcellus Wiley, DE (to Jax), Darren Woodson (retirement).
Key stats: Dallas had a -15 turnover differential, fifth worst in the league. They gave up 31 passing touchdowns last year (4th worst).
Offense: Despite the ranking, they were pathetic at times last year (see: vs. Cincinnati). They have two budding stars to ride in RB Julius Jones and TE Jason Witten. The receiving core of Keyshawn, Terry Glenn, and Quincy Morgan are adequate. With Jones and the A-Train, Parcells should be able to grind it out and control the clock, further protecting Bledsoe.
Defense: Their season may depend on how the defense adjusts to the new 3-4 scheme. Ferguson was a huge pickup, and if first-round picks Demarcus Ware and Marcus Spears produce the defense could revert to 2003 form. The loss of Woodson's leadership is tough to replace, but by picking up Henry and Aaron Glenn, the secondary should improve from its No. 21 ranking.
X-factor: It's gotta be Bledsoe. What does he have left in the tank? The good news for him is that the Cowboys offensive line -with Pro Bowlers Rivera, Flozell Adams and Larry Allen - is twice what he had to work with in Buffalo. His lack of mobility won't be as much of a problem, and with a consistent running game I think he can still be effective.
Outlook: I think that of the three non-Philly teams in the division Dallas is the most likely to challenge for the playoff spot. I think their offense can easily be better than the Eagles, so it depends on how the defense performs. I see 9-7 and in the mix, and don't underestimate the Parcells Factor.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
2004 Record: 6-10 (3-5 home, 3-5 road)
2004 Rankings: 30th offense (29 pass, 21 rush); 3rd defense (7 pass, 2 rush).
2004 Against the Spread: 8-8 (4-4 home, 4-4 road); 4-12 vs. pts. (3-5 h, 1-7 r)
2005 Odds: 35/1 to win SB; 18/1 to win NFC; 15/2 to win NFC East; 7.5 wins O/U
2005 Strength of Schedule: 28th (.465 opp. win %)
Returning starters: 19 (10 offense, 9 defense)
Key acquisitions: Warrick Holdman, LB (from Cleveland); David Patten, WR (from New England); Casey Rabach, C (Baltimore); Jon Jansen, G (returns from injured reserve); Pierson Prioleau, S (from Buffalo); Santana Moss, WR (in trade from N.Y. Jets)
Key departures: Laveranues Coles, WR (in trade to N.Y. Jets); Antonio Pierce, LB (to N.Y. Giants); Chad Morton, RB/KR (to New England); Fred Smoot, CB (to Minnesota)
Key stat: The Skins averaged only 4.3 yards per play, and 15 points per game. Both were the second worst in the league.
Offense: The offensive line was actually decent last year, considering they were without Jansen. With Jansen back, and the addition of Rabach (who is excellent), look for Clinton Portis to top the 1,300 yard mark again this year. However, they have receiver issues. Moss has been a lot of hype in New York, and though he isn't gone yet, Rod Gardner has no intention of returning to the team. With no one to throw to, it won't matter who the QB is.
Defense: Gregg Williams did an amazing job with these guys last year. They get back Arrington, who returns from a knee injury. However, they lost Pierce and Smoot, and promising safety Sean Taylor could be facing jail time. I'd be shocked if these guys came even close to what they accomplished last year.
X-factor: The quarterback position. Patrick Ramsey is the best the three QB's they have, and if Joe Gibbs would just let him play 16 games without having to look over his shoulder, he'd realize that the kid can play. Mark Brunell was 3-6 last year as a starter, and Ramsey was 3-4. If there's no stability under center this year, there's no chance.
Outlook: I don't expect too much from these guys. I would be shocked if the defense played as well as it did last year, and the offense will go as far as Portis can take them. I think they're going to be back around 6-10 unless Ramsey really has a breakout year.
NEW YORK GIANTS
2004 Record: 6-10 (3-5 home, 3-5 road)
2004 Rankings: 23rd offense (27 pass, 11 rush); 13th defense (8 pass, 28 rush)
2004 Against the Spread: 8-8 (4-4 home, 4-4 road); 7-9 vs. pts. (4-4 h, 3-5 r)
2005 Odds: 60/1 to win SB; 25/1 to win NFC; 15/2 to win NFC East; 6.5 wins O/U
2005 Strength of Schedule: 23rd (.488 opp. win %)
Returning starters: 19 (10 offense, 9 defense)
Key acquisitions: Plaxico Burress, WR (from Pittsburgh); Jay Feely, K (from Atlanta); Kareem McKenzie, OT (from N.Y. Jets); Antonio Pierce, LB (from Washington)
Key departures: Kurt Warner, QB (to Arizona); Ike Hilliard, WR (to Tampa Bay); Omar Stoutmire, S; Keith Washington, DE; Ron Dayne, RB (to Denver)
Key stat: The Giants converted only 29.5 percent of their third downs. That was third worst in the league.
Offense: They have Plexi and Tiki Barber, so if Eli Manning and Jeremy Shockey can match some of their hype these guys could put some points on the board. McKenzie will really help solidify the offensive line, but it's still the weakest in the division. Eli is now the starter, but it's basically his rookie year. I think they'll lose two games they shouldn't because of mistakes he makes in the fourth quarter.
Defense: Picking up Pierce was key not only because they took him away from Washington, but because the guy is an animal. However, I just don't see any playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. Michael Strahan is on the downside of a great career, and I just don't see guys like William Joseph, Barrett Green and Gibril Wilson keeping too many offensive coordinators up at night.
X-factor: Shockey is real close to entering the list of Most Overrated Players in NFL History. He caught 74 balls as a rookie, but hasn't topped 61 since and hasn't been a positive factor. He needs to have a Pro Bowl season to take the pressure off of Eli.
Outlook: I just don't see how this team can compete this year. I think they're in a transitional period for the franchise, and I think they'll be right back around 5-11.
If you enjoyed Doc's 2005 NFC East preview, check back throughout the week for more NFL division previews.
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