In 2004, one of the biggest stories in all of college athletics came out of the Mountain West Conference. Led by coach Urban Meyer and quarterback Alex Smith, Utah crashed the Bowl Championship Series party with an 11-0 regular season that included blowout wins over Texas A&M, Arizona and North Carolina. Utah further proved that it belonged among the nation's elite by thrashing Big East champion Pittsburgh 35-7 in the Fiesta Bowl. Southern California was clearly the best team in the land in '04 and won the "National Championship", but with Utah undefeated and in the Top 5 at the end of the year there will always be that specter of "What if they had met in a playoff" hanging over the season (just like in 2003, 2002, 2001…).

The Utes again exposed the flaws in the elitist BCS system and college football in general. Just the fact that a team out of the Mountain West was able to single-handedly take on the bowl system and its defenders marked a major accomplishment for a conference that has been desperate for some attention since its inception six years ago. However, don't expect the MWC to become Utah's plaything. Most of the key components from the 2004 club have moved on to greener pastures, and Utah is hoping that it can avoid the slide back to insignificance.

There will be no "Next Utah" out of the Mountain West in 2005. The conference is very balanced and deep, but there is no one team with the talent and scheme to attain the same level of success and national exposure that Utah enjoyed last season. However, there are several solid teams in this league and this league title could be claimed by any one of six schools. The MWC has four guaranteed bowl bids for eligible squads, but I wouldn't be surprised to see at least six teams with deserving resumes and five teams playing after Dec. 20.

Here is how I predict the standing will look like in late December:

Doc's 2005 Mountain West Projected Standings

The following is Doc's detailed analysis of each Mountain West Conference team highlighting their strengths, weaknesses, and strength of schedule.

New Mexico Lobos (9-3, 6-2)

The Lobos took it on the chin against Navy in the Emerald Bowl to finish their 2004 slate. They lost their third consecutive bowl game, and their leading rusher DonTrell Moore blew out his knee. If and how Moore comes back this season will have a major impact on where this team finishes. I've seen some prognosticators with New Mexico winning the conference, and I've seen some with the Lobos as low as sixth.

Strengths: New Mexico is one of only three teams to finish in the top 30 defensively over the last three years. They return six starters from the league's best unit, including All-MWC performers Marcus Parker and Gabriel Fulbright. The Lobos only relented 19 points and 108 rushing yards per game in '04. Offensively they get nine starters back, including quarterback Kole McKamey.

Weakness: McKamey only completed 49 percent of his throws last year, and threw nine interceptions to only six touchdowns. If Moore doesn't bounce back from the torn ACL then the offense could be firing blanks all year. The defense will again be tough but they did lose three all-conference players, two in the secondary.

Best Bet: November 19, 2005 vs. Air Force. New Mexico is a ridiculous 32-1 ATS when they win straight up against an opponent with the revenge factor. The Falcons upset the Lobos 28-23 last season, so New Mexico should be ready to end its season by banging Air Force.

Be Wary Of: October 1, 2005 vs. BYU. After a tough game at TCU and before a trip to solid Wyoming, the Lobos host the Cougars. This could be a trap game for a more talented New Mexico team. Also, the Lobos are 1-5 recently at home after a loss against a team with revenge (N.M. beat BYU 21-14 in 2004).

Utah Utes (8-4, 6-2)

Utah crashing the BCS party was a major highlight in college athletics in 2005, and their 20-4 record against the spread over the last two years is nothing short of remarkable. Coach Urban Meyer parlayed an undefeated season (12-0) into a big payday and a gig with the slightly more recognizable Florida Gators. Alex Smith was the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft after leading an offense that put up a ridiculous 45 points per game. That's all the good news. The bad news is that there's nowhere to go but down for the Utes. They have a nice core returning, but they won't be sneaking up any anyone this year. That, and they have a bunch of pissed off conference mates who will be looking to avenge some blowout losses.

Strengths: Defensive lineman Steve Fifita is one of the best down linemen in college football, and should be a first- or second-team All-American this season. Fifita is one of only five returning defensive starters, but LB Spencer Toone and DB Eric Weddle may be the best in the conference at their position. Also, defensive coordinator Kyle Whittingham turned down the BYU job to stay with the Utes. He knows the system and all of his players are comfortable with him and have confidence in him.

Weakness: Besides three returning offensive linemen, the offense was decimated. They lost their top runner, passer and both of their top receivers (who combined for 2,037 yards and 23 TD's). They are left with Brian Johnson, an 18-year-old sophomore who got some mop-up duty in '04. Meyer and offensive coordinator Mike Sanford skipped town quickly, leaving the offensive cupboards pretty bare.

Best Bet: October 15, 2005 vs. San Diego State. This is the Utes only home game between contests at North Carolina, Colorado State and UNLV. After a tough game in Fort Collins against CSU I can see Utah putting one on hapless SDSU.

Be Wary Of: September 2, 2005 at Arizona. I think if these two teams played one another later in the season, Utah could handle them. But Arizona will be amped up for a shot to end Utah's winning streak and give some closure to the feel-good story of '04. However, Utah is 16-2 over the last four years against non-conference opponents, and 14-1 against the spread vs. non-MWC clubs.

Wyoming Cowboys (6-5, 5-3)

Lost in the luster of Utah's national championship charge was Wyoming's own happy, happy, joy, joy Mountain West story. After four consecutive losing seasons the Cowboys shocked prognosticators to go 7-5. They beat Ole Miss early in the season, and their season climaxed with a 24-21 shocker over 13-point favorite UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl. Wyoming was 8-3 against the spread last season, and with 17 starters making their way back to Laramie the Cowboys could be in the hunt again in '05.

Strengths: Jovon Bouknight may not get much national pub, but the wide receiver is legit. He finished with 1,075 yards and seven touchdowns, and leads a talented group of receivers that should aid the development of QB Corey Bramlet (58 percent, 2,409, 12 TD's 13 INT's). The offensive line is outstanding, and brings back four players. The secondary features three players who should earn all-league honors this year. Dusty Hoffschneider (5-10, 257) will start at nose tackle and lead the front seven.

Weakness: Teams like Wyoming that come out of nowhere to have a good season too easily fall back into a relapse. They have a tricky schedule this season. Also, they return their top three running backs, but the top two (Ivan Harrison and Joe Harris) are both coming back from offseason knee surgery.

Best Bet: October 15, 2005 vs. New Mexico. Wyoming is 8-1 ATS as a home underdog in conference play over the last few years, and 5-2 as a home dog vs. anyone under coach Joe Glenn. If they take a beating against visiting TCU the week before, look for a cover here.

Be Wary Of: September 24, 2005 at Ole Miss. Wyoming is a better team than Ole Miss. Flat out. However, the Cowboys are 0-9 ATS after a win against an opponent with revenge. If Wyoming upsets Air Force the week before it goes to Mississippi, look for the Rebels to make up for their 37-32 loss to the Cowboys last season.

Texas Christian Horned Frogs (6-5, 4-4)

Texas Christian steps off the bus fresh from Conference USA, and brings with it more wins since 2000 than any of its new play pals. The Horned Frogs are hoping to acquaint the conference with what have traditionally been their strengths - running the ball on offense and stopping the run on defense. They are getting back seven defensive starters (the team was ranked 93rd in '04) and will have familiar faces at the skill positions on offense. It had been seven straight postseason berths for the Horned Frogs before last year's 5-6 bust. They should be back bowling again this year.

Strengths: The TCU backfield boasts a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in Lonta Hobbs and Robert Merrill. Both are talented but injury prone. The same can be said for quarterback Tye Gunn. A trio of junior wide receivers should give Gunn plenty of options. Cornerbacks Drew Coleman and Quincy Butler both made significant progress during spring practice.

Weakness: The offensive line lost three starters (all three were league all-stars) and should be significantly weaker. Also, inexperience still rules on the defensive side of the ball. They surrendered a ridiculous 34 points per game in '04, just one season after yielding just 21. If this team is going to come in and make some noise, the defense will need to split the difference.

Best Bet: November 5, 2005 vs. Colorado State. Texas Christian pounds the ball and Colorado State has been poor over the last three years at stopping the run. It's not rocket science.

Be Wary Of: September 15, 2005 vs. Utah. TCU should be favored, but their going up against the defending champions. This will be the Horned Frogs first foray into the Mountain West as its league, and I'm sure the Utes won't welcome them warmly.

Air Force Falcons (6-5, 4-4)

Youth was served a punch to the face last season in Colorado Springs. Coach Fisher DeBerry was forced to start six rookies last year, and 18 freshman all saw action last year for the Falcons. That was the youngest team DeBerry has ever dealt with, and the result was a 5-6 record and only his third losing season in 21 years. We expect a speedy recovery considering that in the seasons following the other two losing campaigns Air Force won at least eight games and finished no worse than second in the conference.

Strengths: The offensive line for the nation's fourth-best rush attack returns completely intact and is rock solid for Air Force. Co-captains Ross Weaver and Jon Wilson are both all-league candidates. True freshman quarterback Shaun Carney performed admirably last season, and remains No. 1 on the depth chart. He rushed for 596 yards and threw for 1,315, managing 17 total touchdowns and only tossing six interceptions.

Weakness: The defense was terrible in 2004. In 2003 the Falcons gave up 20 points per game, and last season that number swelled to 32. They were 101st in the country in run defense, surrendering over 250 yards per game. They lose their top three linebackers and two down linemen. There is little or no speed on offense, and the top receiver and running back positions are vacant to start the season.

Best Bet: October 8, 2005 at Navy. The Midshipmen have topped the Falcons by a field goal each of the last two years. Air Force should have the better squad this year, and they will either be dogs or have a very small number for them. I expect a 10-point revenge win.

Be Wary Of: October 22, 2005 at Texas Christian. Air Force has been pretty good as road dogs over the last six years (11-7), but this is a bad match up for them. TCU should have its way with the Falcons weak front seven.

Colorado State Rams (5-6, 4-4)

Since they were 1-4 at the time, you can't really say that things went sour after quarterback Justin Holland's season ended at San Diego State in Game Six. However, it certainly didn't help and it may have doomed the Rams to their first losing season in 11 years. He's back, but will he be better than his numbers (62 percent, 1,622, 6 TD's, 10 INT's) suggest he is?

Strengths: The Rams will have a wealth of experience this season, with 18 of 22 starters suiting up again in 2005. Holland is probably the key, but they also bring back leading rusher Jimmy Green and their top three wideouts from '04. The best of those receivers is All-American candidate David Anderson. The defense began the season with nine first-year starters, but with a talented trio of linebackers should be a more cohesive unit.

Weakness: The Rams managed a paltry 112 rushing yards per game last year. That was nearly 100 yards less than they manufactured on the ground in 2003. The defense was terrible, yielding at least 30 points in five of their 11 games. They gave up 47 points to Air Force for chrissakes. Yes, injuries were a problem and hopefully won't be again this season, but they only caused 16 turnovers and were 111th in the nation against the run.

Best Bet: September 24, 2005 vs. Nevada. Over the past seven seasons, Colorado State is 10-1 ATS with rest against a sub-.500 club. Nevada will most likely be at or below that mark when the two teams meet, and the Rams the more talented team anyway.

Be Wary Of: September 10, 2005 at Minnesota. The Rams play in-state rival Colorado in Boulder the week before. If they manage to win that game, expect a big letdown against a superior Gophers squad.

Brigham Young Cougars (3-8, 3-5)

New coach Bronco Mendenhall enters his first year with the Crazy Mormons trying to pull together a program that has had only one winning season since 2000. One of Mendenhall's first actions was to bring back the old school uniforms from the LaVell Edwards Era. New offensive coordinator Robert Anae most recently worked at Texas Tech so it's clear that BYU will remain a pass-happy attack.

Strengths: Anae will start with a full cupboard of quarterbacks. John Beck (56 percent, 2,563 yards, 15 touchdowns) will again be the leader, and ace receiver Todd Watkins (52-1,042-6) will again play the part of Home Run Threat. BYU finished 12th in the country in passing offense last year (279 per). Top rusher Curtis Brown is back, and linebacker Paul Walkenhorst, a starter in 2001 and 2002, has rejoined the club to give the D some pop.

Weakness: Combo kicker Matt Payne has moved on, leaving zero experience in the kicking game. The defense also lost four of its five top playmakers from last season. Besides Watkins, there really isn't a receiving corps. Which for Anae is like trying to start a fire with a pencil and an apple.

Best Bet: November 5, 2005 at UNLV. In the last seven years, Brigham Young is 9-1 ATS as road underdogs in conference games where revenge is a factor. They could be favored, but regardless, BYU lost a brutal 24-20 decision to a horrible Runnin' Rebels team - at home no less - in 2004. Revenge is a factor.

Be Wary Of: October 22, 2005 at Notre Dame. Mendenhall will have his Cougars all fired up for their trip down to South Bend, but Brady Quinn and the Irish offense will tear the BYU defense to shreds. The last time the two teams met was in 2003 when Notre Dame taxed that ass 33-14.

UNLV Rebels (4-7, 2-6)

I've read where this team underachieved in 2004, but I just don't see where they had all that much talent in the first place. New coach Mike Sanford does have he benefit of a program that has been revitalized by former Los Angeles Rams coach John Robinson. Sanford is only 27 years old and has been the offensive coordinator at Utah. He's hoping to bring a fast-break type of offense that can rival that of the basketball team.

Strengths: Not much going on here. The defense has tinkered with both a 4-3 and a 3-4 set over the last year, so that type of versatility could be valuable. I guess you could say it's a good thing that only three starters are back from the nation's 98th ranked scoring defense.

Weakness: Pretty much everything. They have a QB controversy (for anyone who cares) between incumbent starter Shane Steichen, juco transfer Jarrod Jackson, and freshman Mike Mcdonald. The defensive line is flimsy and the conferences all-time leading tackler, Adam Seward, is gone.

Best Bet: October 1, 2005 at Wyoming. The visitor is 6-0 against the spread the last six times these teams have played. UNLV will probably lose, but should cover.

Be Wary Of: September 3, 2005 at New Mexico. The Rebels were just 3-8 ATS last year. With a new system on both sides of the ball, expect plenty of confusion early on. New Mexico's defense should be able to stunt the shaky UNLV offense.

San Diego State Aztecs (4-8, 2-6)

1998 was the last time the Aztecs finished on the positive side of the ledger. Over the past few years they've shown signs of promise - most notably their 16-13 nail-biter at Ohio State in 2003 and a 24-21 near miss at Michigan in 2004 - but they just can't put it together. This year they have a tough non-conference schedule staring back at them, and time may be running out for coach Tom Craft, who in his fourth year is looking for his first winning season.

Strengths: 2003 MWC freshman of the year Lynell Hamilton is back and seems to be fully recovered from a broken leg that sidelined him for all of 2004. Jeff Webb and Robert Ortiz combined for 123 catches and 12 touchdowns last fall and both are back looking for more. Four of five linemen will also be lining up again on opening night.

Weakness: Graduation has ravaged a once-talented defensive group. They lost eight starters, including ¾ of the secondary. It's going to be a patchwork crew for the Aztecs this year. They also don't have a quarterback. Kevin O'Connell started the last half of the '04 campaign but had offseason shoulder surgery. Former starter Matt Dlugolecki and redshirt freshman Darren Mougey will both challenge for the job.

Best Bet: October 8, 2005 at UNLV. The underdog is 1-5 ATS in this series recently. Even though the Aztecs will be on the road, they're still better than the Runnin' Rebels.

Be Wary Of: November 19, 2005 vs. Wyoming. SDSU is only 6-14 as home dogs over the last seven seasons. Wyoming is clearly a better team, and this loss should cement another (and perhaps final) losing season for Arne Lang.

Overall Expectations:

Parity is the word for the Mountain West. If you speak with five different people you may get five different answers as to who is going to win this conference. That sounds clichéd, but it's also true. This is going to be a tough division to bet, but if you can sniff out who the top team is early in the year you should be able to make some bank by riding them to the finish.

My vote goes to New Mexico simply because they have the best defense and they've been the best team in the conference on the road recently (10-3). However, this pick is contingent on DonTrell Moore bouncing back from his knee injury. If Moore isn't 100 percent, all bets are off. Utah will be a player this year also. They did lose a lot, but they're still tough, physical and have plenty of experience. I would pick them to win the MWC, but I think they burned all their luck last year. Also, Air force never has two bad years in a row, and both Colorado State and Wyoming bring back a ton of experience and skill (at least 17 returning starters each). The dark horse is Texas Christian. It remains unknown how the former Conference USA club will adjust to their new league.

Over the past two seasons, the Mountain West is a very pedestrian 13-17 against the spread in early season games against teams from other major conferences. Those numbers don't include newcomer Texas Christian (1-3) or anomaly Utah (6-0) over that stretch. However, the MWC is a very respectable 6-3 ATS in its bowl games since 2003. The moral of the story is that this is a conference that underperforms against traditionally stronger teams early in the fall, but is then undervalued when bowl season rolls around. With several good-but-not-great teams peppering the league this year I would expect that trend to hold form.

Best of luck.

If you enjoyed Doc's 2005 Mountain West preview, check back throughout the week for more college football conference previews.

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