From a gambler's perspective, the Southwest Division was by far the best in the NBA. This was the only division that saw all of its members post a winning record against the spread, with the worst record coming in at 43-37-2 and the best at 45-36-1.

This year I expect more of the same. It has the most talent - by far - of any division in basketball, and the Western Conference representative in the NBA Finals will likely be one of these five clubs.

The Texas Triangle of Dallas, Houston and San Antonio represents the center of the NBA's world. With a host of superstars, quality big men, solid role players and excellent coaching, these three teams are as good as it gets.

You'll notice below that I've given odds and a projection the teams in this division. Some of the teams have no Over/Under projection because they are too close to call, and I don't feel totally satisfied endorsing a play. I'm not discouraging a wager, but sometimes no advice is better than bad advice.

Here is one man's view of the Western Conference Southeast Division (in alpha order):

Dallas Mavericks
2004 Record: 59-23 (1st)
2005 Title odds: 18/1
2005 Wins O/U: 52.5
2005 Wins Projection: Under
Key Additions: Doug Christie, SF
Key Losses: Michael Finley, SG
Outlook: Dirk will again do work. Nowitzki is clearly the man in Big D, but his leadership was more than questionable in their playoff bow-out against Phoenix last year. He'll have to keep a much cooler head, and the rest of the Mavs will have to be more self-reliant if they want to avoid another flameout. Last season Don Nelson decided to retire, handing the keys to the car over to Avery Johnson. Johnson led Dallas on a 16-2 run to end the year, and finished with a 25-6 record in his abridged first season. Michael Finley is gone, but veteran Doug Christie joins the crew to provide energy off the bench. Erick Dampier is the prototypical soft big man. Unless he has a change in his psychological makeup, he'll continue to disappoint. And in the (big man dominated) West that will keep them from taking the next step.
Bottom line: Don't be surprised to see Mark Cuban make some more moves to shake this team up. Talent is there, but they're a player away from making The Jump.

Houston Rockets
2004 Record: 51-31 (3rd)
2005 Title odds: 8/1
2005 Wins O/U: 53
2005 Wins Projection: Over
Key Additions: Stromile Swift, PF; Derek Anderson, SG; Rafer Alston, PG
Key Losses: None
Outlook: My vote for the NBA's Best Frontcourt definitely goes to Houston. With T-Mac, Yao, and now Stromile Swift, Houston can control the boards and the ball. That high screen-and-roll that they run with McGrady and Ming is next to unstoppable. I love the moves to get younger in the backcourt, as Anderson and Alston not only give them a pair of fresh legs, but will help keep veterans like Jon Barry, Bobby Sura, and David Wesley sharp. The key is keeping Anderson healthy. Jeff Van Gundy's teams have always been solid defensively, and should again be in the league's top five.
Bottom line: I like this team a lot. I truly think they'll be in the Western Conference Finals against Texas rival San Antonio.

Memphis Grizzlies
2004 Record: 45-27 (4th)
2005 Title odds: 45/1
2005 Wins O/U: 42.5
2005 Wins Projection: N/A
Key Additions: Eddie Jones, SG; Bobby Jackson, SG; Damon Stoudamire, PG; Hakim Warrick, SF
Key Losses: Jason Williams, PG; Bonzi Wells, SF; James Posey, SF; Stromile Swift, PF
Outlook: Their depth is phenomenal, but this team is built for the regular season and not a legit championship-caliber club. They overachieved in 2003 to earn 50 wins, then regressed last year to settle on 45. They were able to pare down the roster by getting rid of the combustible trio of Wells, Williams and Posey. Their roster boasted seven players that averaged over 9 points per game last year. Four of those players are gone, but Jackson and Stoudamire are capable of filling the void. They also hit on the under 50 times last season.
Bottom line: Unless Pau Gasol can become one of the NBA's elite players - on par with a T-Mac, KG or Iverson - this team will stay very good, but not great.

New Orleans Hornets
2004 Record: 18-65 (5th)
2005 Title odds: 200/1
2005 Wins O/U: 21.5
2005 Wins Projection: Under
Key Additions: Chris Paul, PG; Rasual Butler, SF
Key Losses: (Lee Nailon), SF
Outlook: Just one year after the Hornets relocated from Charlotte, they're on the move again. They will play 35 of their home games in Oklahoma City (was David Stern picking cities out of a hat?) and six in Baton Rouge. Unfortunately, even if these guys were still in the Big Easy they wouldn't be very good. The hope here is that they hit with Chris Paul, the No. 3 overall pick in the draft. But other than that, and the continued development of David West, the Hornets won't have much going for them.
Bottom line: Um. They suck. Period.

San Antonio Spurs
2004 Record: 59-23 (1st)
2005 Title odds: 9/5
2005 Wins O/U: 58.5
2005 Wins Projection: Under
Key Additions: Michael Finley, G; Nick Van Exel, G
Key Losses: Glenn Robinson, SF
Outlook: Finley was a good grab in the offseason, and he and Van Exel give the Spurs some flexibility when it comes to Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli. An interesting offseason signing by San Antonio was getting Fabricio Oberto, a 6-10 center and teammate of Ginobli's on the Argentine Olympic team. He may not get serious burn, but he's another big guy to help spell Tim Duncan. The Spurs still have a phenomenal coach, still defend, rebound and execute in the half court, and still have the league's best player. Age is a factor (five guys 32 or older) but Gregg Popovich knows when to say when in regards to minutes.
Bottom line: What can you say? They're the best team in the world. And unless Duncan breaks down, they have a great chance to repeat as Western Conference champs.

Questions or comments for Robert? E-mail him at robert@docsports.com

The views expressed in this column do not necessarily reflect those of Doc's NBA picks service.

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