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2025 Toronto Blue Jays Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/14/2025

Toronto Blue Jays predictions Bo Bichette

Last season, the Blue Jays finished last in the AL East and 12th in the AL with a 74-88 record. They actually finished one game better than their expected record of 73-89. Toronto was 20 games back from the Yankees in the division standings while also finishing 12 games out of the last wild card spot. Their -72-run differential was the 23rd worst in the MLB last season.

Vladimir Gurrero Jr. was the leader for the Blue Jays offensively. He led the team with a 6.2 WAR while clubbing 30 homeruns and tallying 103 RBIs. Gurrero’s 6.2 WAR was the 11th best mark in the MLB, while he finished in the Top 20 in homeruns and RBIs. He was the only Toronto player to hit more than 20 homeruns or record more than 60 RBIs. Daulton Varsho finished behind Gurrero with a 5.1 WAR despite hitting just .214. Varsho recorded 18 homeruns, 58 RBIs, while leading the team with seven triples. Ernie Clement finished third on the team with a 3.5 WAR after hitting 12 homeruns and recording 12 stolen bases. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, despite getting traded midseason, recorded a 3.2 WAR in a Blue Jays uniform after just 83 games. As a team, Toronto finished 23rd in runs, 26th in homeruns, and 17th in OPS.

Their pitching staff wasn’t any better. They ranked 22nd in ERA, 20th in WHIP, and they gave up the second most homeruns in the MLB. Jose Berrios was solid after posting a 3.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 32 starts. He led the team with 192.1 innings and with 21 quality starts. His 2.2 WAR was the best amongst Blue Jay pitchers. Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt were reliable last season, as the two finished with a 3.83 and 4.16 ERA respectively while recording 171 or more innings. The bullpen was terrible, as they finished 29th with a 4.82 ERA and their relievers were responsible for giving up 92 homeruns, which was the most by any bullpen last season.

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Toronto Blue Jays Key Additions/Losses

Reliever Ryan Yarbrough hit the free agent market at the end of the season after posting a 2.01 ERA for Toronto across 31.1 innings. The Blue Jays also non-tendered veteran relievers Dillon Tate and Jordan Romano and Toronto traded Spencer Horwitz and youngster Nick Mitchell to the Cleveland Guardians.

The Blue Jays brought in second baseman Andres Gimenez and reliever Nick Sandin in the deal with Cleveland. They also reinforced their bullpen by bringing back Yimi Garcia and signing Jeff Hoffman. Toronto made some more splashes by signing Anthony Santander to add some pop to the lineup while also bringing in future hall of famer Max Scherzer to add some depth to their rotation. The Blue Jays acquired Myles Straw in a separate deal with Cleveland while also signing catcher Christian Bethancourt, Richard Lovelady, and Eric Lauer to minor league deals.

Toronto Blue Jays Prospect Outlook

Despite being on the verge of potentially losing their franchise cornerstone in Gurrero, as well as an aging roster overall, the Blue Jays have a weak farm system. The Toronto farm system ranks 24th in the MLB and has just two prospects in MLB’s Top 100 Prospect rankings. Shortstop Arjun Nimmala has tremendous upside and is the highest rated prospect for Toronto and the 87th ranked prospect overall. However, he is still years away from having an impact at the big-league level. Right hander Trey Yesavage is right behind Nimmala as the 88th ranked prospect. He has a great fastball and was dominant during his time at East Carolina, but he has yet to appear in a professional game.

Toronto Blue Jays X-Factors

Vladimir Gurrero Jr.- We all know Gurrero will be a highly productive bat for Toronto. He is not the X-Factor, it’s what the front office will decide to do with him that brings huge implications for this club. With Spring Training on deck, Gurrero has made it known that all contract talks are off when he reports. If he goes without an extension until that time, the front office could be tempted to move their star to replenish their farm system. Though they did invest some money into this year’s free agent class, the Blue Jays could end up deciding to punt on the 2025 season and look ahead to 2026 and beyond if they fear Gurrero could slip away with no return at the end of the season.

Veteran Staff- Now let’s assume Gurrero gets an extension. Then the veteran group leading the starting rotation would be presumed safe for this season. If that’s the case, Toronto has quietly put together a solid rotation. Gausman, Berrios, and Bassitt will be anchored by Scherzer with wild card options in Alek Manoah and Yariel Rodriguez. Though this group struggled last season, their ceiling is one of the highest in the league. It is a stretch, but this rotation could get Toronto back in the playoff conversation.

Toronto Blue Jays Expectations

I expect the Blue Jays to once again miss the playoffs and compete with the Rays to be the basement dwellers of the AL East. Santander and Gurrero provide some pop in the lineup, but both players could be in new uniforms at some point in the season depending on just how bad things get and if talks with Gurrero are unsuccessful. The bullpen improved a little with Hoffman, but it will still be one of the worst units in the league. And their rotation is a huge question mark with a higher ceiling than some teams, but a floor that can collapse at any time. Toronto needs to think long term here and retool their farm system.

Toronto Blue Jays Notable Odds:

Win Total: 78.5

World Series Champions- +5500

Pennant Winners- +2500

Division Winners- +1500

AL MVP- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +1600

AL MVP- Bo Bichette +12000

AL Cy Young- Kevin Gausman +3000

AL Cy Young- Jose Berrios +10000

2025 Toronto Blue Jays Predictions

None of the team futures are attractive for Toronto. The Blue Jays will be at or near the bottom of the American League standings, and things can take an exponential downturn if they move some of their bigger pieces before the deadline. Therefore, the under on the season win total seems to be the best option here. Gurrero will seemingly always be in the MVP discussion, and he definitely has the skillset to win it. However, only problem is he may be in a different uniform, which could impact his MVP potential this season. Toronto’s franchise is not in a good spot right now.

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