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Last Release of Expert NFL Picks from our handicappers.
Just so the public knows we are always transparent and honest with our reporting, in this spot we will list all of the previous weeks NFL football picks and analysis.
This page will be updated each Thursday at 5AM Eastern.
Get free NFL Picks including expert parlays picks for betting NFL games this week against the spread.
Doc's Sports
4 Unit Play. Take #458 Under 49 in Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1p.m., Sunday, November 17 CBS) We will go back to this play against after a tough beat on Thursday Night Football with Baltimore – Cincinnati. This game will be played at a different pace, and Pittsburgh has one of the better defenses in the league. Still not sold that the Steelers have figured things out on offense, and the Ravens defense needs to step up and not allow big plays. That is what bit them against the Bengals. And if they clean that up, this game should stay under. Sooner or later the under will hit with Baltimore, and my guess is that it comes this Sunday in the Steel City.5 Unit Play. Take #466 San Francisco 49ers -6.5 over Seattle Seahawks (1:05p.m., Sunday, November 17 FOX) TOP NFL PLAY OF THE WEEK Many expected the 49ers to pound the Buccaneers last week in Florida. They won the game, but they did not cover the spread. Now we are getting better value with them at home against a weaker team in Seattle. The Hawks have lost 5 of their last 6 games, and I do not see things getting any better for them in this game on Sunday afternoon. San Francisco has beaten Seattle 6 straight times (5-1 ATS). Seattle is off of a bye, but this is just a bad matchup for them, as the things they do well (passing) is what San Francisco defends (pass defense).
Robert Ferringo
THURSDAY NFL SELECTION2-Unit Play. Take #314 Philadelphia (-3.5) over Washington (8 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 14)
The public likes Washington. So we’ll go with Philly. I think Nick Sirianni is a clown. But there is no denying that he has his team cooking right now. The Eagles have won five straight and most of those games haven’t been close. Their defense has been excellent, allowing just 13 points per game during their winning streak. Washington is coming off a tough loss last week. And, really, if the Bears hadn’t screwed up that final Hail Mary we’d be talking about a team that had dropped three of five and had lost to the three best teams it has played. The Eagles are 5-1 SU in their last six in this series and they have been favored by at least 10 points in four of their last five home games against Washington. I see a close game. But one the Eagles get the better of.
SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS
2-Unit Play. Take #451 Green Bay (-5) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 17)
The Bears are a debacle. Green Bay is 10-0 SU and ATS in this series and to say that they have dominated this series over the last two decades is an understatement. Green Bay is off a loss to Detroit and should be in bounce back mode here, even if it takes them a while to shake off the rust following their bye week. Green Bay is on a 0-3 ATS slide but this is the right opponent for them to face to break out of their slump. The Bears are off the rails. They have been getting blown out by bad teams – losing to Arizona and New England by a combined 48-12 – and their wins this season have come against weaklings like the Titans, Panthers and Jaguars. Green Bay should roll again.
2-Unit Play. Take #453 Cleveland (+1) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 17)
Jameis Winston is the only reason this play isn’t rated higher. He is a loser of the first order. That said, I don’t think the Saints should be favored here. Injuries have crippled this team. They are in a letdown spot after an emotional upset win over their rivals, the Falcons, last week. New Orleans only beat Atlanta because the Falcons missed three field goals. Cleveland has played a brutal schedule lately, facing Washington, Philly, the Bengals, the Ravens and the Chargers in their last five games. The Browns should be better now that they have their starting tackles back and, frankly, I don’t think either one of these teams is good enough to be laying points.
2-Unit Play. Take #458 Pittsburgh (+3) over Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 17)
The games between these teams are always slobberknockers. The Steelers are 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings and the underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 games between these two. The fact that the Steelers are home dogs is even better. Baltimore has really struggled against division foes, losing at Cleveland and barely beating Cincinnati last Thursday. Thursday night winners are always ripe for a fade and I think this game is going to come down to the final possession.
3-Unit Play. Take #462 Detroit (-14) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 17)
See below.
2-Unit Play. Take #466 San Francisco (-6.5) over Seattle (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 17)
The 49ers have wrecked the Seahawks over the last few years. They’ve beaten them six straight times and all six wins have been by at least a touchdown, with an average win by an average of 14.7 points per game. The 49ers went on the road and handled the Seahawks 36-24 by running over them just last month. Seattle has played four of its last five games at home, where they have a big advantage. And they lost all four of those games. The Seahawks may not have D.K. Metcalf and even if he plays he won’t be 100 percent. Seattle’s new head coach hasn’t been very good. The Seahawks are facing a very motivated 49ers team that is getting healthy and will be ready to go all out. I see another TD+ win for the home team.
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #462 Detroit (-7) over Jacksonville (1 p.m.) AND Take #473 Indianapolis (+11) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #458 Pittsburgh (+10) over Baltimore (1 p.m.) AND Take #471 Cincinnati (+8.5) over L.A. Chargers (8 p.m.)
This Week’s Totals
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 44.0 Indianapolis at N.Y. Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 17)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 49.0 Baltimore at Pittsburgh (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 17)
7-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 46.5 Jacksonville at Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 17)
I seriously think that Detroit could cover this number on its own if the Lions wanted to. Detroit hasn’t played many home games lately. So it is easy to forget what a nice home field advantage they have. The last two times they did play at home they scored 52 and 42 points in games that featured 66 and 71 combined points, respectively. Jared Goff threw five interceptions last week in Houston (against the No. 3 total defense and No. 4 pass defense in the NFL) and the Lions still put 26 points on the board. The Jaguars have one of the worst defenses in football. They are No. 32 in total defense, No. 31 in DVOA defense, and No. 30 against the pass. Let’s put it this way: they allowed the Bears offense – you know, the one that just fired its OC – to score 35 points. The Jaguars are bad. They allowed over 400 yards to the Vikings last week, but two red zone interceptions and a 0-for-4 from Sammy Darnold in the red zone made that look like a big day for the Jaguars defense. In reality, their 33.5 DYPP was a fluke. The Jaguars have allowed 47, 24, 35 and 28 points in their last four games away from home (33.5 PPG) and, again, I think Detroit could top 40 in this one if they wanted to. Yes, the Jaguars offense sucks and is still without Trev Lawrence. They managed to score 23, 27, 32, 16 and 37 points before last week’s seven-point dud. Weather was a factor last week (it won’t be this week) and the Jags had a 20.4 OYPP. Add it all up and I’ll be surprised if Jacksonville can’t cobble together 13 points or so. The Lions defense is No. 28 against the pass and No. 20 overall. So they can get touched up. But I expect the Lions to do most of the heavy lifting in this one and I have the score in this game as 38-16.
MONDAY NFL SELECTION
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #475 Houston (-0.5) over Dallas (8 p.m.) AND Take ‘Over’ 35.0 Houston at Dallas (8 p.m.)
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
6-Unit Play. #453. Take Cleveland Browns +1 over New Orleans Saints (Sunday @ 1pm est)This will be an ultra level troll by Jameis Winston who faces his former team here and faces David Carr. Winston will relish the opportunity to face his former team, he has tons of family and friends in the New Orleans area and he will love this contest here as he will get his players excited for this game - exactly what he did against the Ravens for that huge win. Remember, this team had to face a motivated and angry Charger team last week which is why they had a let down after the Raven win, but now you get a Browns team that is motivated and of course, you get a Browns team that is coming off a loss and you get a Saints team off a shocking and lucky win against my Falcons who missed 3 key field goals. I think the Browns get up for this game and have a fabulous game and I think the Saints have a monumental let down as I do not trust the Saints whatsoever after a win whch is why this line is as small as you see it.
4-Unit Play. #465. Take Seattle Seahawks +6.5 over San Francisco 49ers (Sunday @ 4:05pm est)
Is this not an absolute desperate game for the Seahawks. You lost to the Niners last time out by 8 points, you are 4-5, you have lost back to back games coming in by scores of 20-26 and 10-31 and you look to avoid losing 3 straight and you have a first year coach who is going to be ultrafocused and you have your season on the line basically and you have a Niners team off a huge win against the Bucs and a team that has Green Bay on deck. I think with a divisional opponent, with so much of their season on the line and losing to this team just 4 games ago, I think you get the best effort from the Seahawks today and like the points here.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
NFL WEEK #114 Unit Play. Take #314 Philadelphia -4 over Washington (8:15p.m., Thursday November 14 PRIME)
Thursday night at Lincoln Financial Field the red-hot Eagles welcome division rival the Washington Commanders. The Eagles have won 5-Straight heading into this game and their defense has been outstanding in this winning streak. Washington lost last Sunday at home to the Steelers and let’s face it the Commanders have played a weak schedule lately. The Commanders are 2-9 SU when playing as an underdog and look for the defense of the Eagles to push them to 6-Straight W’s.
8 Unit Play. Take #466 San Francisco -6.5 over Seattle (4:05p.m., Sunday November 17 FOX)
(NFL Game of the Year) The 49ers get this huge division game at home and don’t look know but the 49ers are getting healthy. Last Sunday the 49ers went on the road and beat the Tampa Buccaneers 23-20 and that was after Jake Moody missed 3 field goals. The 49ers defense held Baker Mayfield to only 116 passing yards and not only did Brock Purdy have one of his better games this year, but CMC was on the field. Christian McCaffrey will be playing his second game of the season and since he was able to shack off the rust in Tampa, I see CMC having a huge game at home against a Seahawks defense that has struggled in back-to-back losses. Not only have the Seahawks lost back-to-back games but they have dropped 5 out 6 and in those 5 losses their defense has allowed an average of 32.8ppg. With San Francisco improving week after week and getting healthier week after week I will play the 49ers and shocked that this number didn’t move to -7. Seattle is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games and the last 6 meetings between these two teams the 49ers have covered 5 of them.
Tony George
NFL
Thursday 11/14/24
4 Units
#314 Philadelphia * FIRST HALF (-2.5) over Washington *8:15 EST
I do not like this hook on the 3 for the entire game as Washington plays some tight games and that fall number on 2 teams who are equal in many respects, and the Commanders always seem to be down the wire. However, in the first half, I like Philly and their run game against this defense who has issues against the run big time, to set the tone early with Barkley pounding the rock and using some play action passing to get a 3-7 point lead going into the locker room at halftime. First Half line Play.
NFL Sunday
11/17/24
7 Units
#458 Pittsburgh (+3) over Baltimore *1 EST
The Steelers can stop the run, and rush the passer. The Steelers also with QB Wilson can pick apart a soft zone defense at will against a bad Ravens defense who gives up points. Pitt owns these guys, 7-1 AU and ATS the last 8 games and Mike Tomlin as underdog at home as head coach is no joke, 12-3-1 ATS his last 16 as a dog on this field. He knows how to coach. I think Baltimore is way overrated and they can be erratic. Wilson at QB stepping into his role and adjusting and this is a dangerous home team. These two always play tight, I can only look at the points here.
2 Team 6 Point Teaser (-120) *1 EST
3 Units
Tease #469 Kansas City UP to (+8.5) and Tease #460 Miami DOWN to (-1.5)
Vernon Croy
7-Unit Play - #314 Philadelphia -4-110 over Washington (Thursday, November 14, 2024, 8:15 pm ET)Take Philadelphia ATS as my top NFL pick for Thursday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Philadelphia in this spot here tonight at home. I believe Philadelphia is the superior team on both sides of the ball and they have yet to play their best game of the season which I believe will come here tonight. This is also a very tough spot for Washington coming off a close one-point loss against Pittsburgh meanwhile Philadelphia went on the road and held Dallas to just 6 points in what was definitely a must win game for Dallas. Philadelphia has averaged over 176 rushing yards per game this season and I definitely expect Hurts to have a big game here tonight. Defensively Philadelphia is also the superior team holding opponents to just 293 yards per game this season which ranks second defensively in the NFL. Play Philadelphia ATS as we move to 7-2 the last 9 weeks on Thursday Night Football.
6-Unit Play - #470 Buffalo -2.5-110 over Kansas City (Sunday, November 17, 2024, 4:25 pm ET)
Take Buffalo ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Buffalo in this spot as they hand Kansas City their first loss of the season. Buffalo I feel is hands down the better team on both sides of the ball and this is a Kansas City team that is very lucky to be where they are this season with some absolutely horrible calls by the referees. I actually expect a blowout victory for Buffalo at home here Sunday. This is a Buffalo team that has averaged 29 points per game this season which ranks third offensively in the NFL. Buffalo has also held opponents to just 19.3 points per game against them this season and I definitely expect them to step up defensively at home. Play Buffalo ATS
6-Unit Play - #475–476 Houston/Dallas GAME TOTAL OVER 42-110 (Monday, November 18, 2024, 8:15 pm ET)
Take Houston / Dallas GAME TOTAL OVER as my top NFL pick for Monday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I expect a high scoring game here given the way these two teams match up against each other. This is a Dallas team that has struggled defensively giving up 34 points last week against Philadelphia, 27 points against Atlanta, 30 points against San Francisco and 47 points against Detroit over their last 4 games. Meanwhile this Houston team is much better than the record indicates and I do expect them to put up a big number here Monday. Play the OVER
Scott Spreitzer
6-Unit Play: Take 464 Titans +6 over Vikings (1 p.m., Sunday, November 17)Tennessee's defense is #1 in the NFL in passing yards and total yards allowed per game and they're decent against the run too. They're facing a Minnesota offense that's been a bit pedestrian in four of their last five games and haven't topped 20 points since week-7. The running game finished with 82 or fewer yards twice and Sam Darnold has thrown seven picks and just six TDs in his last five outings, while facing constant pressure. Tennessee is four one-score losses from a 5-4 record. QB Will Levis is finally healthy and completed 18 of 23 passes last week with a pair of TD passes and no INTs. Minnesota has made a lot of mistakes over the last few weeks and are laying a big spot while not playing their best football of the season. I'm taking the points with Tennessee. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 468 Broncos -2.5 over Falcons (4:05 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 17)
Before going on the road to face Baltimore and almost beating Kansas City, Denver had won five of six games. The defense allowed just 58 points in the five wins. The Broncos are fifth in total yards allowed per game and fourth in ppg allowed. Bo Nix has been decent in his rookie season and Atlanta doesn't offer much pressure on defense, ranked dead last with nine sacks in 10 games. To clarify how bad that is, Denver's defense is second in the league with 35 sacks. I expect a strong effort from the Denver offense and defense and I'm laying the points with the Broncos. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 471 Bengals +1.5 over Chargers (8:20 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 17)
The Chargers have faced the softest schedule in the NFL this season so their defensive numbers are a bit skewed due to the level of opposition. And while I'm a Jim Harbaugh fan, I do believe things get tougher this week. The Joe Burrow - JaMarr Chase combo heads to L.A. and the Chargers will be tested after facing a lot of weak QB play. Cincinnati's metrics are much better than those of a 4-6 team. They've lost three games by a grand total of five points and the three losses came against Baltimore (twice) and Kansas City - not exactly chopped liver. I'm taking the points with the Bengals and expect them to get back in the win column on Sunday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
August Young
4-Unit Play - Take #314 Philadelphia Eagles -4 -110 over Washington Commanders (11/14 @ 8:15PM EST) The Commanders are 7-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS, but we have to acknowledge the fact that they've played the 26th toughest strength of schedule. They have managed to do their damage through the air (ranking 2nd in offensive EPA with the pass). However; the Eagles rank 3rd best regarding defensive EPA vs. the pass and are 7-2 SU despite playing the tougher strength of schedule. All-in-all, we believe that Philadelphia are the better team and should "out-talent" Washington on a short-week. Value on the home favorite.4-Unit Play - Take #452 Green Bay Packers/Chicago Bears u40.5 -110 (11/17 @ 1:00PM EST) Lots to like about the under here. First of all; the Bears are falling apart, and this is especially true on the offensive end. They fired their OC and have scored an average of 9 ppg their L/3 vs Washington, Arizona, and New England. There is some concern that they have a miracle bounce-back showing after the abysmal 3 points scored last week, but doing so with 10 - 12 mph winds in colder weather is not an ideal spot to do so; especially vs. a Packers team that have played a very tough strength of schedule that will want to lean on their defense with a banged up QB in Jordan Love.
7-Unit Play - Take #476 Dallas Cowboys +7.5 -110 over Houston Texans (11/18 @ 8:15PM EST) Well; it doesn't get much uglier than this folks. The Cowboys are coming off another gross performance where they only managed to score 6 points. However, the Texans are struggling after losing three of their last four. It's a miracle they lost last week despite being up 16 at the half and Jared Goff throwing 5 picks for his worst outing of the season. There is a lot of trends that support the Dallas side, as well as our model which shows enormous value despite no Dak Prescott. Getting more than a TD at home vs. CJ Stroud is completely insane. In fact; this is the biggest spread of CJ Strouds career. FWIW; Stroud is 3-8 ATS (27.3%) when listed as a three point favorite or more. If this isn't the biggest buy-low spot of the season, I don't know what is. Does that mean we have a lock? Absolutely not. Especially with this Dallas team that might decide to not get off the bus. However; we have to trust our methods and number which have allowed us our best NFL season to date. LFG!
Strike Point Sports
5-Unit Play. Take #314 Philadelphia (-4) over Washington (8:15 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 14)I love the Eagles in this spot. Philly has started to play really well on the defensive side of the football and they make all the necessary plays to win this huge game. Philadelphia hasn’t been a good wager on their home field in a long time, but this is the spot where that changes. The Eagles also have the advantage when they rush the football as their rushing attack is ranked second in the NFL while the Commanders rush defense is ranked 28th in the league. Washington gives up nearly 143 yards per game on the ground and they have only faced three top 10 rushing offenses in football this season. The Commanders have three loses on the season and two of those three are by at least a touchdown. Yes, they played the Steelers tough last weekend but that was in Washington, a much different vibe than playing in Philly. Jayden Daniels has been top notch this season but a road game on a short week is something different than he has faced all year. The Commanders are 2-0 in the Division but those two wins are against an awful Giants team, and they were by a combined eight points. Philly wins this game and wins it by at least a touchdown.
3-Unit Play. Take #451 Green Bay (-5) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 17)
The Packers own the Bears. I know that many of the players from past Green Bay teams that have dominated Chicago are gone, but the Packers are the big brother to the Bears and there is nothing Chicago can do about it. I am not a huge fan of taking teams out of a bye, but Green Bay needed some time to get healthy and right the ship a little as they bearly beat Jacksonville and got knocked around by the Lions the two weeks before the bye. The Packers win this one easy, as Chicago has more issues than just the OC. Lay the points.
3-Unit Play. Take #468 Denver (-2) over Atlanta (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 17)
I really like the Broncos here. I do not see the KC loss as a let down after getting that field goal blocked. I see that loss as a boost to this young Broncos team that they are a team to be monitored as the season winds down. Denver is already 3-0 ATS against the NFC South this season and there is no reason it can't be 4-0. This is just the first of two times the Falcons will play back-to-back road games, and after losing to New Orleans heading to Denver isn't a good thing. Outside of their loss to the Ravens the Broncos have played everyone tough, and the matchup with Atlanta doesn't scare anyone. Take the home team.
7-Unit Play. Take #471 Cincinnati (+1.5) over Los Angles Chargers (8:20 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 14)
The Chargers win and cover on their home field but I do not like them to do so here. The only good team that LA has had to play at home was the Chiefs, and they couldn't get the job done. The Chargers have beaten Las Vegas, Tennessee, and New Orleans in LA. These three teams are nowhere near as dangerous offensively as the Bengals, and Cincy is going to prove it. The Bengals are always a difficult matchup for any team as Joe Burrow and the (healthy) passing attack are difficult to stop and the Chargers top 10 pass defense will struggle. LA is 9th in the NFL in passing yards against per game, but when they play at home, they aren't as good. Yes, you read that right, the Chargers are worse against the pass at home than they are on the road. The top 9 pass defense is 20th in the NFL in pass yards against on their home field. A closer look could suggest that is because they are winning those games and teams have to pass to come from behind, but they allowed Will Levis (arguably one of the worst QBs in football) to go 18-23 for 175 yards and two touchdowns. Joe Burrow has the ability to double that. Take the road team here. Give me the Bengals and Joe Burrow in prime time as he is 15-6 ATS in 21 games as a road dog.
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Jason Sharpe
Sunday November 17th 2024-NFL-
8 Unit Play Take #453 Cleveland +1 over New Orleans (1:00pm est):
Cleveland return from their bye week completely healthy and with two weeks to prepare for this contest. The Browns have a very good offensive line but they were without multiple starters up front for the first two months of the season. All of them have been healthy of late and their offense has looked a lot better since then. Cleveland started quarterback Deshaun Watson their first seven games this season but he's now out for the season with an injury and the Browns offense look to be better without him running the show. They put up a season high 29 points in their first game with Jameis Winston but they struggled in their next game with him but a lot of that had to do with facing off against one of the best defenses (LA Chargers) in the league. That won't be the case here in this one as they face off against an awful New Orleans defense and Winston having two weeks to prepare for them. The Saints also traded away one of their top defensive guys last week before their game which only makes their shaky defense even worse.
The Saints did get the win last week in a very emotional spot after firing their head coach Dennis Allen. It was a big victory for New Orleans as it put an end to their seven game losing streak where the Saints also dropped six of seven against the spread during this stretch as well. They were a bit fortunate to pull out the victory though over division rival Atlanta (a team they know well and matchup with) as the Falcons missed three field goals in the game and they also shredded the bad Saints defense putting up 181 yards on the ground against them. I expect Cleveland to bring their A game to this one as they're not only healthy with two weeks to prepare but the Browns were embarrassed their game before their bye losing 27-10 to the LA Chargers. Cleveland had actually started to show some signs of life prior to that loss as they beat a very good Baltimore team the week prior and lost by just 4 points to a red hot Philadelphia team that started it's current five game winning streak with the victory and the Eagles won those other four games by an average of 20 points per game.
Take Cleveland in this game.
4 Unit Play Take #458 Pittsburgh +3 over Baltimore (1:00pm est):
This is probably the biggest rivalry currently in the NFL. These two teams know each other inside and out and cause of that almost always play close games. Pittsburgh understands the style the Baltimore offense wants to play and most importantly can match the speed of Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. We seen the Steelers defense last week prove again that they can handle these type of QB's as they held Washington's Jayden Daniels to his worst played game this season.
The Pittsburgh offense has taken a major step forward since handing the reins over to quarterback Russell Wilson a few weeks ago. The Steelers should be able to take advantage in this one of a what has been a bad Baltimore defense this season. Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin always gets his teams to step up in this role as he's 18-5 ATS as a home dog of 7 points or less. The underdog getting +3 points or more has an incredible 18-2 record against the spread in a John Harbaugh versus Mike Tomlin matchup.
Play Pittsburgh plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #459 Las Vegas +7.5 over Miami (1:00pm est):
I think we get a well played, big time effort here from a Las Vegas team that held a team meeting to air things out over the past week. The Raiders have had two weeks to prepare for this upcoming contest, they also made some important coaching changes and most importantly got a lot more healthy as a team as well. Las Vegas has dropped five straight games coming into this one but keep in mind all five of those losses came against decent teams (Denver, Pittsburgh, LA Rams, KC and Cincinnati).
On the other side of things the Miami Dolphins come in off a road game out west and a short week having played last on Monday night. The Dolphins are just 3-6 on the season overall but they've yet to blow a team out this season. Miami got back starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa three games ago and though they have played better with him behind center their passing game still lacks their past explosion averaging just 224 yards passing since his return. A lot of that lack of explosion has to do with Miami speedster Tyreek Hill not being 100% as he's averaging only 51 yards a game receiving this season and he really struggled on Monday with just 16 yards receiving with a long of 12 yards.
Take Las Vegas plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #473 Indianapolis +4 over New York Jets (1:00pm est):
The New York Jets have no business being in this price range against an Indianapolis team that's statistically every bit as good as the Jets this season (Jets ranked 22nd in DVOA and Colts 21st overall). The Jets continue to get lots of respect in the betting markets as they've now dropped six of their last seven games and their three wins this year have come over two bad teams (New England, Tennessee) and the other victory was a huge emotional prime time home game on a short week. Indianapolis has quietly played better than most realize this year as they've covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 games. The three losses against the number this year were all against top level teams (Minnesota, Green Bay and Buffalo). The Colts are getting more healthy and also return to quarterback Anthony Richardson which has given their running game a big boost this season.
Take Indianapolis plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #471 Cincinnati +1.5 over Los Angeles Chargers (8:20pm est):
The Los Angeles Chargers have been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season at 6-3 overall but I'm not buying into them as they've not beat a single team above .500 this year and their six wins have come against teams with a combined 17-40 record overall. They face off here against a Cincinnati Bengals team that's badly in need of a win who come into this game at 4-6 overall. The Bengals probably should have won last week versus a very good Baltimore Ravens squad in a game they had 470 yards of offense and out-gained their opponent by 81 yards overall.
Take Cincinnati in this game.
Thank you and good luck,
Jason Sharpe
Griffin Murphy
7 Unit Play - Take #452 Chicago (+5) Over Green Bay. (1:00p.m, Sunday, November 17th)So, Green Bay comes into this game 6-3 on the season, fresh off a bye week, and 3-1 on the road this season. Dating back to 10 years ago, Chicago is 2-16 against Green Bay. We are already aware Jordan Love has been beat up all season long, so it should seem as if he will only benefit from this. Green Bay is also 8-0 ATS against the Bears dating back to 2020. Now, Chicago has managed to score 12 points in their last 2 games and 27 in their last 3 games. That is averaging 9 points a game for three teams that are by no means elite in the NFL. Why is the total currently 40.5 when Green Bay is averaging 25.6 points per game and yet again the Bears are averaging 9 points a game in their last 3. Chicago is averaging 19.6 points per game offensively, while Green Bay is averaging 21.6 points against. To top this off, 71% of the public’s money has been placed on Green Bay to cover this game. Call me crazy, but what I just broke down is absolutely screaming to the public to take Green Bay, and I mean screaming. Chicago is the sneakiest play on the entire board. Chicago just lost at home 19-3 to New England. New England is ranked 31st in the NFL when it comes to points per game offensively and dead last in passing yards per game. Jordan Love is the franchise of the Green Bay Packers and has passed for over 1800 yards this season with 15 touchdowns. This is perhaps one of the biggest trap games I have seen all season long, and we are going to completely fade the public here. Dating back to last season, Chicago 5-2-2 ATS after a loss, Chicago 4-2-2 ATS at home, Chicago 2-1-1 ATS as home underdog, and now Chicago is 3-1 ATS at home in 2024.
Take #452 Chicago (+5) Over Green Bay.
Griffin Murphy
Amal Shah
5-Unit Play. Take #466 San Francisco 49ers -6.5 over Seattle Seahawks (4:05 p.m., Sunday November 17)The 49ers played one of their poorest games as team last week in Tampa. They have an opportunity this weekend against team they have dominated in their last 6 meetings. The 49ers have won each game by at least 8 points. They have dominated this Seattle team. With SF needing to win for the playoffs, I expect them to dominate them again!
4-Unit Play. Take #460 Miami Dolphins -7 over Las Vegas Raiders (1:00 p.m., Sunday November 17)
The Dolphins got a good road win and now are back home vs a struggling Raiders team. This is a great opportunity for the Dolphins to get back into the playoff chase as they take on a team that hasn’t won since week 4. The Raiders continue to struggle to score as they have gotten to garbage scores the last two weeks when the games were over to actually increase their point total. Miami crushes Las Vegas.
Take the Dolphins -7.
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