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Last Release of Expert NFL Picks from our handicappers.
Just so the public knows we are always transparent and honest with our reporting, in this spot we will list all of the previous weeks NFL football picks and analysis.
This page will be updated each Thursday at 5AM Eastern.
Get free NFL Picks including expert parlays picks for betting NFL games this week against the spread.
Doc's Sports
7 Unit Play. Take #452 San Francisco 49ers -2.5 over Los Angeles Rams (8:15p.m., Thursday, December 12 Prime) Just do not trust the Rams defense and feel that the only way they can win games is in a shootout. San Francisco is coming off their best game of the season and they still have a chance in the NFC West if they can win this game. The Rams have beaten the 49ers the last two games, but SF has won 9 of the last 12 matchups (8-3-1 ATS). All 3 of the Rams wins were by 3 points of less and I do not see them being able to stay in this game for 60 minutes. The home team has a great edge in Thursday Night Football games, and look for Brock Prudy to put up big numbers in this game. The 49ers have injuries, but their defense is still playing well holding foes under their season average in yards.4 Unit Play. Take #474 Denver Broncos -4 over Indianapolis Colts (4:25p.m., Sunday, December 15 CBS) This is the Peyton Manning Bowl, as he played for both of these franchises. Each team is coming off a bye, but I just trust Denver more from top to bottom. QB Richardson is completing just 47% of his passes and has a 7-9 touchdown to interception ratio. Denver is 4-0 this season has a home favorite (4-0 ATS as well). After staring 0-2, Denver has won 8 of their last 11 games and Bo Nix will be the difference in this game.
4 Unit Play. Take #478 Arizona Cardinals -6over New England Patriots (4:25p.m., Sunday, December 15 CBS) It is now or never for QB Murray. He laid an egg last week against Seattle and now gets an easier home game against New England. The Patriots are coming off a bye and will enter having lost 3 straight games. I do not see them getting much from their offense in this game. And if Kyler can take care of the football, the Red Birds should win this game by double digits.
Robert Ferringo
SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS2-Unit Play. Take #458 Houston (-3) over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
I actually was looking hard at Miami earlier in the week. I generally like to bet against teams favored out of a bye week. And I’ve been going against Houston over the past few months because it is clear that this team isn’t as good as people expected it to be. However, the closer we get to the game the more it seems like the Texans are the side. Miami absolutely should not have beaten the Jets last week. And they were blown out the week prior at Green Bay. This defense is still shaky and victimized by poor tackling. The public is also pouring in money on the Dolphins, despite the fact that they have exactly one decent win (over the Rams) in the last two months. I’m going against the public here. Look, Miami doesn’t beat teams with winning records. They’ve only done so twice over the last two seasons. I’m not buying into the Miami resurgence and I think this team is going to get a boost from the home crowd.
3-Unit Play. Take #459 N.Y. Jets (-3) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
I know: it’s kind of insane to bet on the Jets at this point, seeing as they are some of the biggest losers in all of sports. But I think that they are still better than the Jaguars. And while I would never give the Jets a pass for any of their stupidity this season we are getting a clearer picture as the season wears on. And the reality is that they have played a brutal schedule and have a bunch of losses to good teams. Over the last three weeks alone they’ve lost in OT at Miami, by five points in the final minutes against Seattle, and by one point on a last-second two-point conversion to the Colts. They nearly beat the Bills, Vikings and Broncos this season as well, losing to that trio of likely playoff teams by a combined 10 points. The Jaguars stink. They are somehow 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, but that has mainly been a bunch of backdoor BS. Mac Jones is awful and the Jets offense has at least shown some signs of life lately, with the team averaging around 25 points per game over their last three games. I think the Jets have a rare moment of success this week.
5-Unit Play. Take #463 Baltimore (-16) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
I know it is kind of nuts to lay this many points in an NFL game. And double-digit underdogs are on a 5-0 ATS run. However, DD chalk are still on a decent 8-6 ATS run. I don’t expect the Giants to be competitive in this game. There is no reason to be. They are in a soft tank to try to get the No. 1 seed. They are starting Drew Lock and most of this team has mailed it in. Hell, even when they didn’t mail it in they weren’t any good. Again, I normally do not like favorites out of a bye week. But this bye week is late in the season and I feel like people are going to come out of it with a little more purpose than if it was October. The Ravens are coming off a loss and two losses in three games. They do not have a playoff spot locked up so they still have plenty to play for. Baltimore’s offense can be unstoppable at times. And the Giants offense is so pathetic that I don’t think they can take advantage of Baltimore’s weaknesses on defense. The Ravens have scored 30 or more points seven times in their last 10 games and 40 or more three times. The Giants can’t do that. I see this one turning into a 38-13 game for the visitors.
3-Unit Play. Take #475 Tampa Bay (+3) over L.A. Chargers (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
My position on the Chargers has been the same all year. This team is solid, but it isn’t that good. The Chargers run the ball, they play defense, they don’t make mistakes, and they shorten games enough so that their advantage at quarterback can get them home. And that has worked against most of the chump and loser teams they have faced. But they don’t really beat good teams. Their only win this season against a team that is likely to make the playoffs came at Denver. Other than that, it is a litany of wins over the likes of the Raiders, Panthers, Saints, Titans, etc. The Bucs are a real team. They are playing with momentum and they play with a chip on their shoulder. These guys are the only team to beat the Lions this year – in Detroit, no less – and they took the Chiefs to overtime – in Kansas City.
1-Unit Play. Take #479 Green Bay (-2.5) over Seattle (8 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
2-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #455 Washington (-0.5) over New Orleans (1 p.m.) AND Take #471 Buffalo (+9.5) over Detroit (4 p.m.)
Today’s Total
1-Unti Play. Take ‘Over’ 43.5 Washington at New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 47.0 Cincinnati at Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 42.5 Baltimore at N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 47.0 Miami at Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 40.5 N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SELECTION
2-Unit Play. Take #482 Minnesota (-6.5) over Chicago (8 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
7-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 43.5 Chicago at Minnesota (8 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
I think we may see something similar with the Bears that we’ve seen with the Jets. Ever since the Jets fired their head coach their defense has cratered. Watching Chicago last week in San Francisco, that team looked lost on that side of the ball. Remember: Eberflus was the defensive signal caller. He was a joke as a head coach when it came to basic game management. He wasn’t bad as a defensive guy, though. Minnesota rung up 40+ points last week against the Falcons. I really think they can threaten that number again this week. They are at home. They are finally healthy all along the offense. And there’s just no way that I trust this Bears defense to step up and shut them down. Now, what can the Bears offense give us? Well, they’ve been held to 20 or fewer points in six of their last seven games, so not much. But if this one goes the way that I think it will there will be plenty of garbage time. These two teams combined for 57 points just a few weeks ago. Even without that 42-point eruption last week the Vikings have averaged around 25 points per game over their last nine games. And their other divisional games yielded 60 points apiece. Finally, Minnesota’s defense has allowed 20+ points in three straight and in five of their last eight games. I don’t think the Bears will get there. But I do think the rest of the league is making some adjustments. And the fact that Chicago is seeing Minnesota for a second time in a short period of time should lead to even better results. I’ll call it 34-18 for the home side.
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
7-Unit Play. #471. Take Under 54.5 Buffalo vs. Detroit (Sunday @ 4:25pm est)This is a fantastic public fade and we will ride the Under here. Buffalo just played a game where they might have been looking ahead to the Lions and they gave up 44 points to the Rams. It was a terrible game for a team that is a legit contender and now who is playing another legit contender and these two teams could very well see each other in the Super Bowl. Buffalo gave up more points that at any point they have given up all year and Detroit comes off giving up 31 points to Green Bay which will highly motivate them as well. Remember, Detroit gave up 24 points in the 2nd half to Green Bay and they felt like they did not finish that game well at all after being up 17--0. Look for a much better defensive effort from both sides of the ball as this game goes Under as this fantatsic public fade cashes.
6-Unit Play. #481. Take Under 44 Chicago vs. Minnesota (Monday @ 8 p.m est)
Who is going to score? You think MInnesoat is going to get up for the Bears here - sure, it is a Monday Night Football game, but after you put up 42 points on the Atlanta Falcons and that too 21 points in the 4th quarter, there is no way you get up for the lowly Bears who are 4-9 and who this team has already beaten earlier this year. And, that game went to 57 points as the Bears lost 27-30 and I think the Bears will step up here quite well defensively, this is their super bowl if you will to get a Monday Night Football game, they get to face a Vikings team off a big high but the same team who can lay an egg such as beating Jacksonville 12-7, or the Colts 21-13 and as Chicago's new coaching staff gets some rhythm here and comes off giving up 38 points to the Niners, look for a much better effort defensviely from both sides.
4-Unit Play. #468 . Take Carolina Panthers -2.5 over Dallas Cowboys (Sunday @ 1 p.m. est)
Whose future is brighter? The Panthers who have now covered 5 straight games or the Cowboys who are decimated by injuries and who seem to have a coach who might be on his way out. The Panthers have a QB who is gaining confidence, lost to the Chiefs by just 3, who only have 2 less wins than the Cowboys and 2 of those wins come of late with huge wins over the Giants and Saints - and who only lost to Tampa Bay by 3 and who hung in there against Philadelphia and lost by just 6 points. Remember, this team played well against Denver as well and we think Dallas will be hungover big time from the way they lost to the Bengals on national television and we think this is Carolina's super bowl as they get up in a big way.
4-Unit Play. #477. Take Over 46 New England vs. Arizona (Sunday @ 4:25pm est)
We love the over here. Maye continues to gain confidence in this offense, as this team has put up at least 15 points in their last 5 games including 22+ points in 3 of their last 5 games and on top of all this, you hvae an Arizona team that comes off a brutal loss to Seattle in back to back games essentially this year scoring just 18 points last game, 22 points the game before and 6 points prior to that. We love Arizona to bust out here and at the same time the Patriots to be great active dogs here.
4-Unit Play. #479. Take Green Bay Packers -2.5 over Seattle (Sunday @ 8:20 p.m. est)
We will gladly take the Packers here after a loss and on the road against Seattle who have won 3 straight. Green Bay started the last game extremely slow, they know that, they will start much faster and not get down 7-17 at the half like they did last game and at the same time you have a Packers team who has not lost back to back games in ages and we absolutely do not trust Geno on primetime to win 4 in a row here. Seattle beat a banged up San Francisco team, beat Arizona twice who is struggling right now and who beat the lowly Jets and as they face an elite Packers defense who will be furious after the last loss, we love the Packers here.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
NFL WEEK #153 Unit Play. Take #474 Denver -4 over Indianapolis (4:25p.m., Sunday December 15 CBS)
The Colts offensive line has been lacking so getting pass production will be hard to find. Denver’s defense is no joke, and this game will be won on the D-side and that is why we see the Broncos winning/covering this game. The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and Denver has won 8 out of their last 11 games including going 6-1 ATS.
6 Unit Play. Take #479 Over 45.5 Green Bay at Seattle (8:20p.m., Monday December 16 NBC)
As of Thursday the weather says, ‘No Rain’ and with that I see both teams putting up points on the scoreboard. The Seahawks last 6 games against NFC North teams 5 have gone ‘Over’ and I see Geno Smith playing well at home. Jordan Love and the Packers offense should have no issue moving the ball down the field in Seattle and their last 10 road games 7 of them have gone ‘Over’.
4 Unit Play. Take #481 Over 43.5 Chicago at Minnesota (8:00p.m., Sunday December 15 ESPN)
Both Monday Night Football games could be tough watches but at least in this matchup we could see points hit the board. The Bears defense allowed 38 points on the board last Sunday to the 49ers and I see the Vikings putting up a lopsided number Monday. These two teams played last month in Chicago and the Vikings won 30-27 and that total blew ‘Over’ so we are hitting the repeat button Monday night.
Tony George
College FootballSaturday 12/14/24
4 Units
Army (-6.5) over Navy *3 EST
Yes, it is a rivalry game, one of the longest in CFB, but Army is on a different level than Navy, especially on offense. Take the guess work out of it, Army’s offense should dominate this game and their QB Bryson Daily is one man wrecking crew, fronting the #1 rush offense in CFB. Army destroyed Tulane 35-14 who is vastly better than Navy. How much better (?), Tulane waxed Navy 35-0. Again, play the better team who is 10+ points better than Navy, despite how big of a game it is between these two.
NFL
Sunday 12/15/24
7 Units
#474 Denver (-4) over Indy *4:25 EST
Indy has 2 starters out on the OL and QB Richardson has a 47% completion rate throwing the ball. Denver has a run stuffing defense and also LOVE to blitz opposing QB’s. This is a perfect storm in favor of Denver. Bo Nix throws well against a Cover 2 defense, and that is what Indy runs most the time. Sean Peyton has coached this team up, brought along a rookie QB who is excelling and not making mistakes, and home field here worth a full 2 points. The Colts have lost 4 out of their last 6 games and their wins were against the Jets and Pats, both bad teams. Denver rolls em.
4 Units
#476 LA Chargers (-3) over Tampa *4:25 EST
Not sold on Tampa and wins over weak sisters the last 3 weeks. The Raiders, Carolina and the Giants. Those are bottom feeders in the NFL. Tampa has injury issues all over the place, especially on defense, RB rookie sensation Irving is hurt and managed 4 carries last week, and RB White is better than average but against this Charger defense it will be tough going, I like LA to bottle up the Bucs offense and get after Mayfield and force turnovers. A near miss against KC last week for LA, and they have lost close games to good teams, and this is a must win on home turf. I think they get it done here by a TD over an over estimated Bucs team.
3 Units
#455 Washington (-7.5) over New Orleans * 1 EST
The Saints minus QB Carr, backup QB and playmaker Hill out for the season, and they managed a win over the lowly Giants last week, but lost Carr in that game. Washington off a bye week and are loaded on offense and there is no way the Saints can counter punch here as the game goes along. When Carr went down for 3 games this earlier this year, all 3 of those games the Saints lost by double digits, 2 of them by more than 20 points. Against a team in the playoff hunt and a must win situation with the better team and a savvy head coach, I like Washington in a blowout with Jayden Daniels returning to Louisiana (Played at LSU) so he will have many reasons to shine.
NFL
Monday Night Football
12/16/24
4 Units
#482 Minnesota (-7) over Chicago *8 EST
The Bears are a dumpster fire and their interim head coach showed his rear end to the world last week where the Bears were ill prepared to play a game having more punts that offensive yards in the first half. That is not a misprint! The Vikings at home here on a Monday are too much for a Bears team whose defensive coach was their ex-head coach and you saw the results of that last week. They made a bad 49ers team look like Joe Montana and Jerry Rice were back on the team. The hope is that they do not get QB Williams injured between now and the end of the season because the OL of the Bears is deplorable at blocking. In my opinion, Minny names the score.
Vernon Croy
7-Unit Play: #451 Los Angeles +3-110 over San Francisco (Thursday, December 12, 2024, 8:15pm ET)Take Los Angeles ATS as my top NFL pick for Thursday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Los Angeles in this spot coming off a big win against Buffalo. Los Angeles I feel is the better overall team on both sides of the ball and I do expect them to have success on the ground here Thursday. This is a Los Angeles team that is much better than the record indicates and even though San Francisco is coming off a dominant win against Chicago, Chicago is a bad team. San Francisco's opponents have converted 43.9% of their third downs against them this season and I do expect Los Angeles to put up a big number in this game. Play Los Angeles ATS
6-Unit Play: #472 Detroit -2.5-110 over Buffalo (Sunday, December 15, 2024, 4:25pm ET)
Take Detroit ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Detroit at home in this spot. This is a very tough spot for Buffalo especially coming off a loss on the west coast. I feel like Detroit is the superior team defensively and I do expect them to step up at home here Sunday. Detroit has allowed just 18 points per game this season and they are the better overall team. I also look for Detroit to win the turnover battle in this game. Keep in mind this is a Detroit team that has average 394.8 yards per game this season averaging the league's best 32.1 points per game. Play Detroit ATS
6-Unit Play: #481 Chicago +7 -110 over Minnesota (Monday, December 16, 202 8:00pm ET)
Take Chicago ATS as my top NFL pick for Monday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I actually have Chicago pulling off the offset here Monday. Chicago is much better than they played on the West Coast and I do expect them to take much better care of the football against their divisional rival. Keep in mind these two teams played earlier this season and that game went into overtime with Minnesota winning by just three points. Minnesota is on a hot streak winning six straight games but I believe Chicago can pull off the upset here Monday coming off and embarrassing loss at San Francisco. I do expect Chicago to step up defensively in this game here Monday after giving up 38 points against San Francisco and I also expect them to win the turnover battle. Play Chicago ATS
Scott Spreitzer
6-Unit Play: Take 452 49ers -2.5 over Rams (8:15 p.m., Thursday, December 12)I’m laying the points with the 49ers. Both teams have their share of injuries but Brock Purdy flourished against the Rams earlier this season and did so without George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, who were both sidelined. This week he has both targets along with Jauan Jennings, who lit-up the Rams with 11 receptions for 175 yards. The Rams won 27-24 but were out-gained by 129 yards and allowed nearly 7 yards per play. The Rams’ defense is ranked 24th, 28th, and 27th in passing yards, rushing yards, and total yards per game, while the Niners’ defense ranks third against the pass and the Rams’ offense is virtually one-dimensional, doing its damage through the air. Note that teams (+3/-3 line range) in revenge of a loss by no more than seven points are on a 26-6 ATS run, provided the team in revenge has a losing record. Meanwhile, teams playing .510 to .600 football and off an outright win as a home dog have covered just six of their last 32 when facing a sub-.500 team in the second half of the season. I’m laying the points with the 49ers. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 457 Dolphins +3 over Texans (1 p.m., Sunday, December 15)
Tua Tagovailoa missed the first three road games this season and the offense stunk. But Tua has started the last three road games. The first two ended in a 3-point loss at Buffalo and a 23-15 win over the Rams in Los Angeles. We played against Miami in the most recent road game, a 30-17 loss in Green Bay and I always look to play against Miami in cold weather or stay away from the game. Having said that, Tua played well in all three, completing 82 of 102, 80% of his passes, 803 yards at 7.9 per attempt, with 5 TD passes and just 1 pick. The Dolphins don’t have to worry about the weather this week, just focus on winning their fifth game in six weeks and staying in the playoff mix. Houston is 4-4 SU in their last eight games and the wins came against Jacksonville, Dallas, the Colts, and New England and two of those games were decided by a FG. CJ Stroud isn’t finding the same success as he did last year and he has just 4 TD passes with 5 INTs in his last four games, completing just 62.6% of his attempts. Miami has a solid defense and I’m taking the points with the Dolphins. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
2-Unit Play: Take 466 Browns +4 over Chiefs (1 p.m., Sunday, December 15)
I mentioned on a show the other day that I leaned to Cleveland but wasn’t sure I wanted to put my trust in Jameis Winston. After digging even deeper, I have landed on the Browns as a play. KC is a banged-up football team with a ridiculously tough slate coming in a short period of time. They’ve dropped seven in a row ATS and their yards per play metric would fit a 7-6 or 6-7 team more than a team with a 12-1 record. Mahomes has covered just 24 of his last 66 starts (2 pushes) as a favorite of more than a field goal. I’m taking the points with the Browns. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
August Young
4-Unit Play - Take #452 San Francisco 49ers -2.5 -120 over Los Angeles Rams (12/12 @ 8:15PM EST) The Rams are coming off their best performance of the season, and everyone is drinking the Kool-Aid. The fact is this; despite the talking heads, Brock Purdy is still the better QB compared to Stafford. His CPOE is 2.9% compared to 0.3% for Stafford, and also ranks higher in passer rating, QB ratings, and success %. We also have to acknowledge what SF did last week vs. the Bears. Yes, I know it's the bears but man; that was a highly impressive performance. This is also a revenge spot for the 49ers who lost in the earlier meeting this season, but let's not forget that they have won 9 of the last 12 in the series. Great game here, but we're all about San Fran.4-Unit Play - Take #463 Baltimore Ravens -16 -110 over New York Giants (12/15 @ 1:00PM EST) This is an enormous point spread, and the largest of the season. We should also note that there has only been eleven teams in database history that have been listed as at least 16 point favorites on the road. Those teams have covered at a 64% rate with an average win margin of 20 points. Baltimore have lost two of their last three, but are coming in to this off a bye week which Lamar Jackson has openly said was much needed. They are two games behind the Steelers (who they will also face in Week 16) with four games to go. This isn't a "play with your food" situation. They need to win, and not take any chances. The Giants are all-time bad and the Ravens should absolutely roll vs. the awful Tommy DeVito and co. They have managed to stay in close games in five of their last six, but without a rest. Tired legs are getting smashed here.
7-Unit Play - Take #471 Buffalo Bills +2.5 -110 over Detroit Lions (12/15 @ 4:25PM EST) This is a spot I absolute love for the Bills. We successfully faded the Lions last week with the Packers at +3.5, but the fact Detroit managed to pick up the win keeps them at a market high. It's also ideal that they pushed on the spread depending on the closing number. The Lions are 12-1 SU, and 9-4 ATS but they will be playing in their 9th straight week here and continue to operate with a banged up defense. Josh Allen will have ample opportunity to feast. FWIW; the Bills have won four-straight head-to-head meetings, and six of the last seven. We should also note that they have a profusion of trends that give them the clear advantage in this spot. Buffalo struggled to get stops last week, but this is still the 10th best defense in the league regarding defensive EPA despite playing a tough strength of schedule. The Bills rank 2nd best in offensive rush EPA, and the Lions rank outside the top 10 in defensive EPA vs. the rush. Factor in the injury issues and we have the Bills winning outright. Let's get it!
2-Unit Play - Take #479 Green Bay Packers -2.5 -110 over Seattle Seahawks (12/15 @ 8:20PM EST) This is a big matchup for playoff positioning in the NFC. However, it's a nasty situational spot for Seattle. They are coming in to this game off three-straight wins as a dog. In database history; teams coming off three-straight upset wins, now in a non-divisional game, are just 35.4% ATS for a -32.4% ROI. What's more; when we look at teams that are coming off three straight wins as dogs of 3 or less (expected close games) they are 0% all-time. That's right. Zero. Some might say a team in this spot is due, but we have to see it first. It makes sense as well considering those spots are highly competitive games and fatigue is a definite factor as well as being priced at a market high. 3 feels like the correct number, and now we are below a FG; we have to side with the better team. The Packers rank 4th in the NFL in ypp margin despite playing one of the tougher strength of schedules in the league. We should also note that Seattle are just 1-3 ATS this season vs. elite opponents with win percentages greater than 60%.
Strike Point Sports
7-Unit Play. Take #461 Cincinnati (-5) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)The Bengals were my favorite team to bet on last season and I absolutely dominated their games. This year has been a different story as Cincinnati has been a mess. They have not lived up to expectation, and they have lost heart breaker after heart breaker. Last weekend they were extremely fortunate to escape the Cowboys, but to be honest, they absolutely deserved that win, because of how this season has gone. The Titans are just not good, and they won't be able to keep up with this Bengals offense that still has a shot, a very slim one, but a shot nonetheless to make the playoffs. The Titans have struggled against the AFC North as they are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against those teams. I understand completely that teams that win on Monday tend to struggle on Sunday, but not here. Joe Burrow has been absolutley dominant this season, and even though the Titans have give up the least amount of passing yards on the season, and will have another big game here. The Titans have scored more than 20 points twice all season while the Bengals have topped the 30 point mark six times this year. Give me the Bengals.
4-Unit Play. Take #469 Pittsburgh (+5) over Philadelphia (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
The Eagles could be considered better than the Steelers, but this is too many points to give a Mike Tomlin side. Philadelphia has won their last two games despite out gaining both opponents, which isn't something to keep doing. Pittsburgh comes into this game in first place of the AFC North, two games ahead of Baltimore. The Eagles are sitting in second place in the NFC, and are coasting to another NFC East title. Philly knows they can lose this game and not move from their second place spot, so I don't think we see a perfect game from the Eagles. If Philly dominates on the ground the Steelers could be in trouble, but I just don't see that happening. The Eagles have an easy schedule following this game. They know that even with a loss here 14-3 is easily attainable. Take the points as this is a field goal game.
2-Unit Play. Take #471 Buffalo (+2.5) over Detroit (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Jason Sharpe
Thursday December 12th 2024-NFL-
8 Unit Play Take #452 San Francisco -2.5 over Los Angeles Rams (8:15pm est):
San Francisco is way better than their 6-7 record on the season and they go into this game in a must win spot tonight. I think we are getting tons of line value on the Niners right now as this is still one of the more talented teams in the NFL despite all of their injuries and bad bounces this year. Keep in mind these two teams faced each other back in week in LA and San Francisco closed as -6.5 point favorites on the road in that one. The Niners have been on the wrong side of a ton of close games this season, going 2-5 straight-up in games decided by 10 points or less. It also feels like the betting market has placed way too much stock in a couple of flukey games of late as they were beat by a Buffalo team who was off their bye week and played on a snow covered field, the week before that the Niners were without their starting quarterback on the road against a very solid Green Bay team and the week before that SF faced another team (Seattle) that was off of their bye week and the Niners let that one slip away late giving up a go ahead touchdown with just 12 seconds left. Add all of those up with two more late game collapses earlier in the season (both in divisional play) and you end up with a team that sits at 6-7 overall after 13 games.
We cashed in with Los Angeles last week as my big 7u play in what was an awesome spot at home for the Rams going up against a Buffalo team that was traveling across the country and playing their first game after clinching their division. The Rams played a near perfect game in their 44-42 win over the Bills last week and a closer look shows they needed a bunch of breaks to win including converting 12 of 16 on 3rd and 4th downs in the game and scoring a touchdown on a blocked punt. Now they face a desperate opponent here in this one, a team that's also likely looking for revenge for their unlucky loss to the Rams earlier this season in a game that SF looked to be the much better team.
This veteran Niners team has won their fair share of big games over the years and I expect they step up here tonight in this huge contest. Take San Francisco minus the points.
Sunday December 15th 2024-
NFL-
5 Unit Play Take #473 Indianapolis +4 over Denver (4:25pm est):
Very surprised by this line here as I made Denver under a field goal favorite. The Broncos come in off three straight wins but I wasn't impressed with their last two victories and I felt they should have lost their last game to Cleveland as the Browns put up over 550 yards of offense against them. It feels like it's the top of the betting market right now for a Denver team who's a very mediocre 8-5 coming into this one. Four of their eight wins this year have come over the awful NFC South and then they have four other victories over four teams that have three or fewer wins currently this season (Cleveland, New York Jets and Las Vegas 2x). Denver is also in a bit of a tough spot here as they have a big Thursday night divisional game on deck versus the Los Angeles Chargers next week.
Indianapolis is nothing special but they are a decent team that comes into this game 6-7 on the season and they have been undervalued all year long going 8-5 versus the spread. The Colts have really excelled in this type of role as an underdog as they're 6-0 on the season ATS when an underdog and when facing a non-elite team (team currently with 10 wins or fewer on the season). They are also 8-2 ATS this season in lower spread games lined between -3 and +4 on the year.
Take Indianapolis plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #466 Cleveland +4 over Kansas City (1:00pm est):
This is a sleepy spot for a Kansas City team that's shown time and time again this season they struggled to get up for these type games. The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in any of their last seven games and they're 0-6 ATS the last six times they have been favored and 2-7 this year against the number when favored in a game a by more than a field goal this season. Half of the Chiefs wins this year have come by 3 points or less or in overtime. Cleveland is better than their overall record of 3-9 this year. The Browns were a mess early on this season but since moving to quarterback Jameis Winston they have played better of late but some of their recent results are hidden by some bad luck as well as they should have beat Denver two weeks ago and was closer to beating Pittsburgh last week than the final score of that contest.
Play Cleveland plus the points.
Thank you and good luck,
Jason Sharpe
Griffin Murphy
2 Unit Play - Take #456 New Orleans (+7.5) Over Washington. (1:00p.m, Sunday, December 15th).New Orleans comes into this game 5-8 on the season and coming off a 14-11 win over New York on Sunday. Washington is now 8-5 on the season and coming off a 42-19 win over Washington on Sunday. It's very easy to look at this game and expect another Washington blowout, but that won't be the case this Sunday. Washington is presently 2nd in the NFC East. Washington is coming into this game fresh off a bye, and they are going to play very carefully here. Washington is still looking to clinch a playoff spot, and after the Saints, they have to deal with Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Dallas. This team is not going to want to run the scoreboard up here; they are going to obviously play very hard to win, but if they grab that significant lead, we can expect some heavy substitutions to protect their starting core. New Orleans at this point is really playing for all or nothing. This club is 3rd in the NFC South and really has no way of making the playoffs unless they win out for the rest of the season. This team is going to come out full throttle at the Superdome, where they hold a 3-4 record. Washington is just 3-3 on the road, and again, they are in a critical spot here this season and must stay healthy. For New Orleans, it’s all or nothing; for Washington, it’s a must-win game, but we are talking about winning by 2 possessions here for them to cover the spread. I expect New Orleans to come out hot in this contest and really battle-test Washington. As we approach this point of the season, it is critical to look at the numbers, upcoming matchups, and home versus away records. This is a great spot for New Orleans, and for Washington it’s a bit more flat. Let's grab the points here with New Orleans, as I expect them to keep this game within 1 possession.
Take #456 New Orleans (+7.5) Over Washington.
Griffin Murphy
7 Unit Play - Take #475 Tampa Bay (+3) Over Los Angeles Chargers. (4:25p.m, Sunday, December 15th)
Tampa Bay comes into this game 7-6 on the season and 1st in the NFC South. Tampa Bay has Atlanta right on their tails, and this is a must-win game for them. After this matchup, Tampa Bay has it super easy, dealing with Dallas, Carolina, and New Orleans. Tampa Bay has to leave it all on the field in this game and come out throttling. Los Angeles is presently 8-5 on the season and 2nd in the AFC West. Los Angeles is coming off a brutally tough loss to Kansas City last week in a 19-17 final. The big game for Los Angeles comes into play next week when they have to deal with Denver, who is also 8-5 on the season and 3rd in the AFC West. This game is crucial for both teams, but the understanding of Tampa Bay here is critical. This is the biggest game of their season, and it’s a must-win game, as they can easily clean up the rest of their schedule after this. It’s a simple leave-it-all-on-the-field game here for Tampa. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is going to have in the back of their head that they have Denver next week, which can definitely cause some bad mental brain function with their approach in this game. Denver has Indianapolis this week, so they should lock that matchup, so this puts Los Angeles in a very tough situation. Next week it's going to be all or nothing for Los Angeles, whilst this week it’s all or nothing for Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is presently 7-2 ATS this season when playing non-divisional matchups, 4-2 ATS on the road, and 2-1 ATS as a road underdog. Los Angeles is 4-4 ATS when playing with rest, 4-2 at home, and 24th in the NFL when it comes to total yards of offense per game. Tampa Bay is presently holding teams to just 115 yards on the ground per game, which ranks them 11th in the NFL. This game plan approach is simple. Especially as Just Herbert is coming into this game with an ankle issue, there won't be a lot of mobility in the pocket. This should give Tampa Bay an outstanding opportunity to really utilize their defensive pass rush and sustain Herbert in the pocket. I believe this line is off, and Tampa Bay comes into Los Angeles and takes them down outright. Again, with that being said, we are taking the 3 points and not getting beat by a field goal. Take the insurance and let's hammer this 7-Unit Best Bet!
Take #475 Tampa Bay (+3) Over Los Angeles Chargers.
Griffin Murphy
1 Unit Play - Take #479 Green Bay (-140) Over Seattle. (8:20p.m, Sunday, December 15th)
Seattle comes into this game 8-5 on the season and 1st in the NFC West after a critical must-win game over Arizona on Sunday. The amount of pressure and mentality that was thrown at Seattle last week was unbearable. Seattle entered last week's matchup in a must-win sequence, as they had both Arizona and Los Angeles right on their tails. Geno Smith came out and lit it up, going 24/30 for 233 yards in the air and a touchdown. He was nearly perfect. Well, you're asking that out of a guy who, once again, is being put in a similar situation on Sunday Primetime football with all eyes on him. Geno Smith is either dead on with his pass game or he is a complete mess. Geno has passed for an insane 3,474 yards this season with 14 touchdowns, but he has thrown 12 interceptions already this season. Green Bay is presently in a heavy NFC North race, sitting at 9-4 on the season and 3rd in the NFC North. Jordan Love leads the charge. Love is hitting 62.8% of his passes this season, 2,724 yards in the air, 21 touchdowns, and 11 picks. Love also has arguably one of the best running backs in football behind him with Josh Jacobs. Jacobs has 1,053 yards on the season, 11 touchdowns, and is averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Seattle is presently ranked 21st in the NFL when it comes to defending the rush and 17th in the NFL when it comes to 3rd down conversion executions on the defensive side. Jacobs will be a workhorse in this game and really bust up that Seattle defensive line. This will open the pass game up early for Jordan Love to really air it out. Green Bay is 5th in the NFL in rushing yards per game, 10th in the pass game, and 7th when it comes to points per game, averaging 26.8 points. The momentum is too big in my eyes for Seattle, especially after their biggest game of the season last week with a victory over Arizona. Green Bay has New Orleans, Minnesota, and Chicago on deck to finish off the season, so this is a must-win game, as they really cannot suffer any more losses to get into postseason play. I expect Green Bay to roll into Seattle and beat them straight up at Lumen Field.
Take #479 Green Bay (-140) Over Seattle.
Griffin Murphy
Nick Menken
7 Unit: Take #457 Miami Dolphins (+3) over Houston Texans (1:00p.m, Sunday, December 15th)In Week 15, the Miami Dolphins will face the Houston Texans. The Miami Dolphins have a lot to play for and are still in contention for the playoffs. However, as they approach week 15, there is no more room for defeat. The Houston Texans presently lead the AFC South division with an 8-5 record this season. The players have rested after a bye. This Texans team has struggled to maintain consistency throughout the season. CJ Stroud's performance has not been optimal. This Miami offense has looked like its old self since Tua returned from injury. He has been performing at an exceptional level. Tua defeated the Texans 30-15 in their last meeting in Miami. The Texans' offense demonstrated a marked increase in explosiveness. But Miami's offense hasn't slowed down since last year. The Dolphins have playmakers all over the field who can convert a five-yard completion into 20-plus yards. Despite being the underdogs in this game, the Miami Dolphins have shown that they still have a lot of fight left. The Miami Dolphins have emerged victorious in four of their previous five games. Miami, as we all know, dislikes playing in the cold. Well, this game takes place inside a dome where Tua thrives. Miami's offense will expose the Houston Texans' secondary. The Miami Dolphins will win this game outright. But we're taking +3 points to be safe on the road.
Take #457 Miami Dolphins (+3) over Houston Texans
Nick Menken
4 Unit: Take #479 Green Bay Packers (-145) over Seattle Seahawks (8:20p.m, Sunday, December 15th)
The Green Bay Packers and the Seattle Seahawks play primetime Sunday night football. Both teams aim to maintain their momentum as they prepare for their playoff campaigns, given that both teams would qualify if the season concluded today. The Seahawks are in complete control of the NFC West. The Seahawks have won four consecutive games, including a huge road victory over the Cardinals last week in Arizona. This matchup between the Packers and the Seahawks could foreshadow a wild card showdown. While Green Bay is coming off a tough loss to the Detroit Lions last week, they seek to rebound on the road in Seattle. However, the Packers' defense is formidable; they consistently force turnovers, ranking among the best in the league. They presently rank fourth in takeaways heading into this meeting. Let us not forget that Geno Smith made some terrible decisions during games this year. Geno has 12 interceptions this season and is up against a turnover machine in Green Bay's defense. Jordan Love nearly made a comeback against the Lions last week. However, before that game, they had won three consecutive games. Love excels at avoiding turnovers. Love rarely makes a mistake with the ball. Despite losing to the Lions, they still scored 31 points. The Packers have now scored 30 or more points in three consecutive games. I expect the Packers' and Jacobs' run game to establish itself early on. This will open up the passing game for the Packers. This is simply a rebound game for the Packers following their loss to the Lions last week. Take the Packers to defeat Seattle in primetime Sunday night football.
Take #479 Green Bay Packers (-145) over Seattle Seahawks
Nick Menken
3 Unit: Take Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lion (OVER 54.5 Total Points) (-110) (4:25p.m, Sunday, December 15th)
Everyone is ready for the showdown. The Buffalo Bills travel to Detroit to face the Lions. The Lions enter this game with an 11-game winning streak. However, Josh Allen and the Bills will pose the season's most difficult challenge. The Lions' offense has appeared unbeatable all season. Jared Goff and his playmakers pose a dual threat at running back. This is a team that will not let up. The Bills stand the best chance of facing off against the Lions' offense. I believe this clash will expose both defenses. This season, the Lions rank in the top five in every offensive metric in the NFL. The Lions have lost one game this season, and it was at home against the Buccaneers. However, the Lions play their best football at home. We already know the Lions will aim to run up the scoring early. In this matchup, the Lions will force the Bills and Josh Allen to pass frequently by utilizing their legs. I predict the Lions scoring more than 30 points in this game against the Bills' defense, which ranks 14th in total yards per game. The Bills will keep scoring in this game. I predict a final score of 33-28, with strong scoring in the second half. Both of these offenses will move the ball. Can the Bills keep up their scoring pace with the Lions today? I am confident that the Bills can maintain their scoring pace against the Lions today, which is why we will predict victory in this matchup between two of the league's most potent offenses. Take over 54.5 total points in this game.
Take Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lion (OVER 54.5 Total Points) (-110)
Nick Menken
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