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2024 New York Yankees Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/15/2024

New York Yankees predictions Nestor Cortes

Summary of Last Season

The New York Yankees turned in a disappointing season a year ago after an 82-80 record and missing the playoffs by seven games. The offense severely underperformed, and depth became a big issue for a Yankees team that struggled to stay healthy and consistent all year. The Yankees had just two players reach 150 games played on the year and had only three total players amass over 115 games. It didn’t help that the Yankees committed 95 errors last season, 6th most in the league.

The offense struggled big time and really held this team back. The Yankees finished 25th in runs scored, 24th in OPS, 29th in hits, and finished in the top 12 of the MLB in strikeouts. These numbers just can’t happen in such a hitter friendly park. Despite playing in only 106 games, Aaron Judge led the team in homeruns (37), RBIs (75), and walks (88). One positive for the Yankees hitters was Gleyber Torres’ resurgent season after he led the team with a .273 AVG while finishing behind Judge in homeruns and RBIs.

As for the pitching, Gerrit Cole had another dominant season, posting a 7.5 WAR, 2.63 ERA, 222 strikeouts, and recorded a quality start in 73% of his starts. Michael King was solid in the rotation as well posting a sub 3.00 ERA, while Clay Holmes anchored the bullpen converting 24 of his 27 save opportunities.

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New York Yankees Key Additions/Losses

In one of the biggest moves of the offseason, the Yankees would acquire outfielders Juan Soto and Trent Grisham from the Padres in exchange for Michael King, Kyle Higashioka, and prospects. The Yankees followed that move up by adding big name starter Marcus Stroman to reinforce a rotation filled with questions. They would also add Alex Verdugo and relievers Victor Gonzalez and Caleb Ferguson.

Losing King leaves a big hole in the rotation, even after signing Stroman, and the two added relievers don’t shore up things on the backend. The Yankees will also be without Luis Severino and Domingo German, with the two finding new ballclubs in free agency. Utility man Isaiah Kiner-Falefa also left in free agency and joined the division rival Toronto Blue Jays. New York addressed the offensive struggles, but the pitching is questionable.

New York Yankees Prospect Outlook

Righty Will Warren is expected to answer one of the question marks around the pitching staff as the 22-year-old ranks as the 4th prospect in the organization. Jasson Dominguez will get more at bats at the MLB level and will hope to break his way into an everyday role in the lineup. The Yankees top three prospects are outfielders. And after the offseason additions, the outfield is getting a little crowded for the Bronx Bombers, so perhaps the most impactful outlook will be what one of their top prospects is worth on the trade market.

New York Yankees X-Factors

Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon- The two starters were held to just 32 starts last season no thanks to injuries, and neither one of them produced when they were healthy. Rodon finished the season with a 6.85 ERA, while Cortes finished with a 4.97 mark. Both pitchers have proven to be above average options at different times in their career, and the Yankees will need them to find that if they want to compete with the Orioles and the three headed monster that is the AL West.

The Vets- Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, and DJ LeMahieu combined for just 51 homeruns, 145 RBIs, and combined for an average OPS of just .706 while posting a 1.0 combined WAR. Even after the additions to the outfield, depth is still an issue with this team. So, not only will these three need to stay healthy, but they also need to tap back into their prime years and produce more than last season.

New York Yankees Expectations

The rotation looks good on paper, and seeing Soto penciled in right before Judge is scary. However, its not hard to see the team is dependent on the health of multiple injury prone players. The rotation will look good headed into the season, but Cortes, Rodon, and Stroman are coming off significant injuries, while guys like Stanton and Judge are rarely in the lineup together. With that said, the division is weaker, and this team does appear to be a near 90-win club, so expect the Yankees to add in the event of injuries and push for October.

New York Yankees Notable Odds:

World Series Champions- +850

Pennant Winners- +400

Division Winners- +135

AL MVP- Aaron Jude- +550, Juan Soto- +600

AL Cy Young- Gerrit Cole- +500

New York Yankees Predictions

The injuries are bound to happen, and we will witness a repeat of an underwhelming season and a lot of time (and money) on the IR. The farm system is loaded with top prospects to reinforce the club if they are in a position to compete for a title. However, with all the question marks surrounding health, the lack of depth, and the Wild Cards being dominated by AL West clubs, I do not see this team cracking the playoffs.

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