UAW Dodge 400 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 02/29/2008
Jimmie Johnson seeks his fourth consecutive win at the UAW Dodge 400 this Sunday at 4:30 p.m. at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the place that sparked Hendrick Motorsports domination of the Cup Series last year.
There is something about LVMS that lends itself to repeat winners as Jeff Burton won here three years in a row from 1999-2001, Matt Kenseth won two years in a row from '03-05 and, of course, Johnson who has won the past three years and has dominated intermediate tracks in the Car of Today.
Johnson was the last driver to win at the same track four consecutive times when he did it at Lowe's Motor Speedway in 2004-2005. Teammate Jeff Gordon was the last driver to win the same event four times in a row at the Southern 500 at Darlington from 1995-1998.
Who will win the UAW-Dodge 400?
While Johnson will no doubt face competition from hometown favorite and current points' leader, Kyle Busch, he showed the depth of his talent and experience by compensating for the new high-banks put in place last year at LSVM. In fact, Johnson won the last two high-banked races in 2007.
Kyle Busch has two fourth place finishes in the first two races of the season and has notched three consecutive top 10 finishes at Las Vegas. Certainly Roush Fenway Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing are the teams with cache after last weekend's rain-delayed race that did nothing to entice fans to the Super Speedway, but just like last year's start of the season and two winless weeks of getting a feel for their cars, HMS drivers ripped off wins in 10 of the next 12 races.
Pick! Jimmie Johnson (9/2)
UAW Dodge 400 Solid Gold Picks
Sportsbook.com has listed match-ups on the UAW Dodge 400. I have included a few match-ups that I think should be profitable this Sunday. Keep in mind my picks are all 1-unit plays unless otherwise noted. Last weekend at California my picks went 2-1. I cashed tickets on Kasey Kahne (+1.05, ninth place over Greg Biffle's 15th) and Kevin Harvick (-1.05 who finished 8th place over Mark Martin's 16th place). I lost on Kenseth (even) as Johnson came in second and Kenseth finished fifth but ended the day up one unit. After two races over the wall I am 3-3, but in a hole early with my NASCAR picks to the tune of -2.15 units.
Matt Kenseth (-1.15)/Carl Edwards (-1.15)
I love the back flip; there hasn't been a better auto-dismount since the Duke Boys. But you can't argue with success and before JJ ripped of three-straight Kenseth won two in a row. Even more impressive is that Kenseth has the third best average finish at Vegas behind Johnson and Hamlin at 7.6 and has four top five and five top 10 finishes in the desert. Edwards, meanwhile, is coming off of a soggy win and, like in other sports, when a team has a big win there is the let down factor and I can't see "Concrete Carl" who has never won and only has one top 10 finish at LVMS finish besting Kenseth.
Pick! Matt Kenseth
Long-Shot Value Pick
It's Sunday noon and you have a virtual Jackson burning a hole in your offshore and you decide to play on asphalt and concrete. It's a fool's game trying to predict the winner each week betting favorites because at short odds for the money I'd invest it really isn't worth the risk. For the casual fan a $20 is just the right taste for an enjoyable race that hopefully ends the same afternoon it begins. Gillett Evernham Motorsports' Kasey Kahne has had a great start to the season with two top 10 finishes in two races. If you're looking for a wager that will keep you watching your HD Flat screen, Kahne, in his D-ride (Dodge), is as good a bet as any.
Pick! Kasey Kahne 20/1
Square Tire Pick
Reed Sorenson (+1.20)/Mark Martin (-1.50)
You won't win a bet racing on square tires and you won't cash your ticket backing square picks. Looking over the card I see one such matchup that screams square tire. Martin owns Sin City, right? The old man has only two races in which he didn't record a top-10 finish at Las Vegas. In 2003 he finished 43rd and in 2005 he was 30th. Furthermore, Martin has an average finish of 11 at Las Vegas while Sorenson's is 33rd. The casual NASCAR observer is all over Martin. It's a name they recognize. But a closer look at Sorenson shows he's been ripping up the track for Chip Ganassi Racing and is on target to finish ahead of Martin this weekend. This short season Sorenson has already notched one top five and one top 10 finish, and although he lost 12-spots in the standings he's at 17th place and one of my drivers I am tracking this year.
Pick! Sorenson (+1.20)
*UAW-Dodge 400 Odds - Sun, Mar 2nd (4:30pm EST)
Las Vegas Motor Speedway, NV
All drivers have action. Singles Only. Max $600
A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 125/1
Carl Edwards 8/1
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 28/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12/1
Dale Jarrett 150/1
Dario Franchitti 100/1
Dave Blaney 125/1
David Gilliland 100/1
David Ragan 125/1
David Reutimann 65/1
Denny Hamlin 15/1
Elliott Sadler 80/1
Greg Biffle 16/1
J.J. Yeley 100/1
Jamie McMurray 40/1
Jeff Burton 28/1
Jeff Gordon 6/1
Jeremy Mayfield 200/1
Jimmie Johnson 9/2
Joe Nemechek 150/1
John Andretti 150/1
Johnny Sauter 150/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 30/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Ken Schrader 200/1
Kevin Harvick 30/1
Kurt Busch 14/1
Kyle Busch 8/1
Kyle Petty 250/1
Mark Martin 35/1
Martin Truex Jr. 22/1
Matt Kenseth 10/1
Michael Waltrip 150/1
Mike Skinner 150/1
Patrick Carpentier 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 40/1
Regan Smith 150/1
Robby Gordon 100/1
Ryan Newman 25/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Riggs 100/1
Tony Stewart 9/1
Travis Kvapil 125/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1
*Odds courtesy of Bodog