Jeff Burton clings to a scant 22-point lead over last weekend's Aaron's 499 winner, Kyle Busch, in the Sprint Cup standings as NASCAR trades paint under the lights at Richmond International Speedway for the Dan Lowery 400 brought to you by Crown Royal on Saturday night at 7 p.m. EST.

Perhaps no driver is more aware that Richmond also marks the second anniversary, or 71 winless races, of Dale Earnhardt, Jr.'s losing streak in Sprint Cup events. Last weekend at Talladega Junior was the sentimental favorite to win and while he gave his fans reasons to get out of their seats and cheer, ultimately for No. 88-backers, Jr. finished another disappointing 10th place, but still good enough to move him to third place in the Sprint Cup standings. The question Junior's die-hard fans are asking themselves is will that win come this week at Richmond? Probably not.

Who will win the Dan Lowery 400?

Something happens every time we have a ticket to win on Tony Stewart and last weekend at Talladega was no different. Distractions about leaving Joe Gibbs Racing aside, the race started auspiciously enough with Stewart in the front of the grid and the No. 20 car jumped out to a quick lead. Stewart looked like the car to beat. He led the most laps (61) and with 15 laps left in the race managed to get caught-up in a multi-car crash that effectively ended his day and Stewart finished in 38th place and is now winless in 20 attempts at the historic track.

This week I expect to see a lot of attention paid to Jimmie Johnson (swept Richmond in 2007), Kyle Busch, and Richard Childress Racing's Kevin Harvick in the No. 29 car. Harvick is on quite a hot streak with six top-10 finishes at Richmond's three-quarter mile track.

Two reasons why I am not backing him is that he'll be racing in both the Nationwide and Sprint Cup series and, while that might help some drivers, I don't think it will for Harvick who last year managed no better than two top-10 finishes (but they were both for seventh place) at Richmond. In 14 starts at Richmond Harvick has one win but his average finish is 12th place.

I like the hottest driver on the circuit now; and I don't mean Kyle Busch. I mean the other hottest driver, Denny Hamlin in the No. 11 car. Hamlin's third-place finish at Talladega was his fourth consecutive top five finish and good enough to move him up two spots in the Sprint Cup standings to fourth place.

Hamlin's Toyota was a monster at Talladega despite the outcome under caution. The No. 11 car was pushing others to the front for most of the race and was one of the best cars on the track. Joe Gibbs Racing has won three of nine races this year and there is no reason why they won't win a few more. Hamlin's win was on another short-track at Martinsville and Virgina's native son will look to cook at home on Saturday night.

Pick! Denny Hamlin (7/1)

Dan Lowery 400 Solid Gold Picks

Sportsbook.com has listed many matchups on the Crown Royal 400, but here are a few picks I like to cash under the lights on Saturday night. As bad as Kurt Busch's finish (39th) was at Talladega, our pick, Matt Kenseth's (41st) was even worse; when he blew his front right tire it cost us a winnable bet. Over the wall my NASCAR matchups record stands at 6-7 as I lost 1.05 on my Square Tire Pick to bring my record to -2.80 units on the season.

Long Odds Value Pick

We liked HMS to do well at Talladega but concentrated on the "fourth Beatle syndrome" of HMS and Casey Mears. Mears started from 36th on the grid, but at 'Dega it doesn't matter where you start. Mears ran a good race and while he did not win it his seventh place finish was better than the other three drivers in the HMS stable. This weekend under the lights at Richmond there are a bevy of long-odds contenders that have a realistic shot of cashing. While it's not going too far out to pick the Sprint Cup point's leader as our "long odds value pick", 18/1 is hard to ignore. Burton finished third in the Goody's Cool Orange at Martinsville and Richard Childress Racing has given him a good Chevrolet each week. Burton does well on short tracks and at Richmond in particular where Burton has one win and seven top five finishes at Richmond which, to me, makes him a great value play at 18/1 to win on Saturday night.

Pick! Jeff Burton (18/1)

Square Tire Pick

Kevin Harvick +1.10/Tony Stewart -1.25

Harvick owns the amount of laps led at 599 during that same time period. Nine races into the season Harvick has been very consistent with four top-10 finishes this year, good enough to put him in sixth place on the Sprint Cup leader board. Stewart, on the other hand, has managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and after last weekend's crash dropped him two places to ninth place in the Sprint Cup standings, he will be eager to finish better than he did at Talladega. There can't be denying that the off-track speculation about where Stewart will end up after his contract runs out in 2009 has got to be distracting so we'll take substance over smoke in this matchup.

Pick! No. 29, Kevin Harvick (+1.10)

* Dan Lowery 400 Odds
Richmond International Speedway
Sat, May 3rd (7:00pm EST)

A.J. Allmendinger 150/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 100/1
Carl Edwards 6/1
Casey Mears 50/1
Clint Bowyer 16/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 9/1
Dave Blaney 150/1
David Gilliland 100/1
David Ragan 40/1
David Reutimann 100/1
Denny Hamlin 7/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 18/1
J.J. Yeley 150/1
Jamie McMurray 70/1
Jeff Burton 28/1
Jeff Gordon 10/1
Jimmie Johnson 5/1
Joe Nemechek 200/1
John Andretti 200/1
Johnny Sauter 150/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 80/1
Kasey Kahne 25/1
Kevin Harvick 14/1
Kurt Busch 30/1
Kyle Busch 6/1
Kyle Petty 200/1
Mark Martin 16/1
Martin Truex Jr. 28/1
Matt Kenseth 18/1
Michael McDowell 200/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Patrick Carpentier 200/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Regan Smith 150/1
Robby Gordon 100/1
Ryan Newman 22/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Riggs 100/1
Scott Wimmer 150/1
Tony Stewart 8/1
Travis Kvapil 150/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 65/1

*Odds courtesy of Bodog.