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2024 Tampa Bay Rays Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/15/2024

Tampa Bay Rays predictions Randy Arozarena

Summary of Last Season

After an historic start to the season, the Rays would go on to a 99-63 record before being swept by the eventual World Champion Texas Rangers in the Wild Card Series. Tampa Bay had one of the most complete teams in the MLB last season, with both the offense and pitching ranking in the top five.

Led by Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz, this offense ranked 4th in the MLB in runs, stolen bases, and OPS, while finishing 6th in the league in homeruns. Third baseman Isaac Paredes led the Rays with 31 homeruns and 98 RBIs, while Diaz finished with a .932 OPS and a team-leading 173 hits. Arozarena posted solid numbers as well, posting a 20/20 season and finishing tied second on the team in RBIs with Josh Lowe.

The pitching staff was solid at the top, with Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, and Zach Eflin, while Pete Fairbanks and Jason Adam anchored the bullpen. Fairbanks and Adam combined for 37 saves in 47 opportunities.  The Rays would go on to finish with a 3.86 ERA, which ranked 5th best in the league while leading the league with a 1.18 WHIP.

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Tampa Bay Rays Key Additions/Losses

The subtractions far outweigh the additions for the Rays, as they will look to their farm system to replenish what they lost at the major league level. Tamp Bay’s only significant addition was that of SP Ryan Pepiot, who they acquired from the Dodgers, but who they gave up was more impactful.

For Pepiot, the Rays shipped Glasnow and Manuel Margot to Los Angeles. Additionally, the Rays would trade away veterans Luke Raley (SEA) and Andrew Kittredge (STL). Not only that, but they also lost relivers Robert Stephenson and Jake Diekman in free agency. Meanwhile, the status of Wander Franco remains unclear, but it is likely he will miss significant time this season.

Tampa Bay Rays Prospect Outlook

With Franco and Raley’s bats needing to be replaced, the Rays are looking no further than top prospect Junior Caminero along with fellow top prospect Curtis Mead to not only replace but exceed the production of their predecessors. Another prospect who could breakout with the big-league club this season is SS Osleivis Basabe, who saw limited time last season.

Though he may not be considered a prospect anymore, Jonny DeLuca is another name to keep an eye on as he looks to break into the big leagues.

Tampa Bay Rays X-Factors

Pitching Depth- No McClanahan at all and no Jeffrey Springs or Drew Rasmussen until later in the summer, and don’t forget Glasnow is now in a Dodgers uniform. Eflin will head up the rotation and will be followed by a bunch of question marks. Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, and Ryan Pepiot are all intriguing and unproven power arms that could make a huge impact (positive or negative) on the team’s success. Aaron Civale and Zack Littel are serviceable. However, as it stands now, the Rays rotation doesn’t scare anyone.

Tampa Bay Rays Expectations

The Rays have one of the best lineups in baseball heading into the season, with their 1-6 hitters being threats, and it will only get better as Caminero, Mead, and other prospects begin to plug into the lineup. It is really going to come down to the pitching staff as the questions extend past the rotation. After losing Kittredge, Stephenson, and Diekman, the bullpen depth is questionable. The AL East is going to take a step back this season, and the Rays will likely be a big reason why. If they are well positioned heading into the summer months and know more about the return of Rasmussen and Springs, the club has plenty of prospects to use as trade bait if they want to make a run at a wild card spot.

Tampa Bay Rays Notable Odds:

World Series Champions- +3300

Pennant Winners- +1500

Division Winners- +650

AL Rookie of the Year- Junior Caminero- +1000

Tampa Bay Rays Predictions

I don’t see the Rays being able to compete with the league’s top teams this season. The rotation is scaring Rays fans more than their opponents. This could all change if the aforementioned vets can return healthy and/or a trade (or two) is made, but the Rays will be relying heavily on their lineup to carry them into the playoffs. I think we see this squad perform similarly to last season’s Yankees. They will go under their projected win total mark of 86.5 games.

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