Fall Football Preview: SEC Odds and Futures Predictions
by Justin Johnson - 07/09/2009
The SEC has won the past three national championships and certainly has the chops to at least have a team playing for it again this season.
While the East looks like it will be Florida over everyone else, the West can certainly still be won.
Alabama (+500 to win the conference, BetUS)
The Skinny: The Crimson Tide used a huge win in Atlanta to catapult their 2008 season and can do the same in 2009 as they kick off against Virginia Tech. The offensive line loses three starters and they will be breaking in a new quarterback but most of the defense is back and should be better than before. The Tide will be relying on Greg McElroy to step in and fill in for John Parker Wilson, a task that shouldn't be too hard to accomplish, as McElroy has great weapons in Mark Ingram and Julio Jones at his disposal.
Value: Good. The Tide should really only have one conference road test, at Ole Miss, and they get LSU at home. Terrence Cody, Rolando McClain, and Dont'a Hightower have been receiving glowing reviews from coaches and should anchor a very stingy defense. A return trip to the SEC title game is probable - and don't forget that they lost last year, 31-20, to Florida but the game was much tighter than that score indicates.
Arkansas (+1500, BetUS)
The Skinny: Bobby Petrino's second season with the Razorbacks should be better than the first. That's due, in large part, to transfer quarterback Ryan Mallet being eligible to play. Petrino's offense is predicated on having a big, strong-armed player at the helm and at 6-7 Mallet fits that bill. The defense returns its Top 10 tacklers from a season ago. Unfortunately those players saw Arkansas rank last in the SEC in total defense, scoring defense, pass and rush defense. But experience, even bad experience, is valuable in the SEC.
Value: Poor. Arkansas should improve from the team that narrowly beat Western Illinois and UL-Monroe, but they are not ready to tangle with Alabama, Florida, or Ole Miss yet. A bowl game is in sights but a conference title is not quite in focus yet.
Auburn (+900, BetUS)
The Skinny: Auburn won only two SEC games last season and lost to Vanderbilt, which was enough to cost Head Coach Tommy Tuberville his job on the Plains. After an embarrassingly bad coaching search the Tigers settled on Gene Chizik - who won a total of five games in his two years at Iowa State. Gus Malzahn takes over an offense that only threw for seven touchdown passes in all of 2008.
Value: None. The only SEC wins for Auburn last year were 3-2 over Mississippi State and 14-12 over Tennessee, what they bring back not inspire many to think that they can get much more than a fifth place finish in the division.
Florida (-275, BetUS)
The Skinny: The Gators are the team to beat in the SEC and the nation, they return Superman Tim Tebow at quarterback for his senior year and all 11 starters on defense. The most difficult conference road game is at LSU, and baring any Ole Miss-style missteps the 2009 version of the Gators look more like an unstoppable force than a college football team.
Value: Good. Yes, laying almost three-to-one is tough to do but for a team that is generally only slowed by themselves it's a sound play. The path to the SEC Championship Game is basically paved in gold with so many teams in the East being down this season. Losing Percy Harvin is a cause for some concern but Urban Meyer has shown at every stop in his coaching career he is up to the task of replacing just about anyone.
Georgia (+750, BetUS)
The Skinny: Last season the Bulldogs were not able to live up to the preseason hype, dropping games to Alabama, Florida and instate rival Georgia Tech. However, a 10-3 record and a Top 15 ranking is not bad for anyone, just not what was expected between the hedges. Injuries got Georgia in a hole on the offensive line early, but those losses could make this team better in 2009 since some youngsters got extra playing time. Losing Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno early to the NFL can make it tough for UGA to move the ball but coaches have confidence in Joe Cox to get the ball to phenom A.J. Green and think that Caleb King can step up for Moreno.
Value: Some. This could be no value but if Georgia can get past Florida somehow at the Outdoor Cocktail Party they could win the East and would have the confidence needed to win the conference. The defense would almost have to perform better than it did last year despite the loss of Asher Allen. A Week 1 test in Stillwater will be a measuring stick for the program.
Kentucky (+6000, BetUS)
The Skinny: Kentucky has quietly won three straight bowl games but has yet to sniff a conference title in some time. In what is speculated to be Rich Brooks last season as head coach they are planning to make Mike Hartline the fulltime QB and move their best playmaker, Randall Cobb, to WR. The defense enters this season very unproven with only three starters back. Cornerback Trevard Lindley could be an All-American performer for the Cats, however.
Value: None. Kentucky will probably be able to make another bowl game this season and will likely continue the recent success over instate rival Louisville. However, they do not have what it takes to get over on more than half the conference.
LSU (+350, BetUS)
The Skinny: While nothing has been made official, look for highly-touted Jordan Jefferson to start the season at quarterback. He made great steps in the late season chances he had, including helping carve up the Georgia Tech defense in the Chik-Fil-A Bowl. The schedule does not shape up well for LSU to make the SEC title game, having to go on the road to both Alabama and Ole Miss.
Value: Some. Brining in John Chavis to run the defense should help the Tigers get back on the right track after allowing six opponents to score 21 points or more. The offense will need to get steady play from the quarterback position as LSU saw eight passes from Jarrett Lee go back the other way for touchdowns last year. LSU could end as a disappointment if they start in the Top 10 and could wind up with as many as four losses.
Mississippi (+500, BetUS)
The Skinny: Ole Miss has never played in the SEC Championship Game. The 2009 season shapes up to be their best chance to date. With both of their biggest opponents for the division - Alabama and LSU - coming to Oxford, Ole Miss could avoid the stumbling blocks that seem to plague them and this team could be playing for the conference and National Championship. Jevan Snead is beginning to fulfill the potential he had when he originally committed to Texas. The Rebels certainly don't have the most depth of teams in the SEC and can ill afford to lose Snead or returning defensive end Greg Hardy.
Value: Great. Ole Miss can defeat Alabama and LSU at home. But can they keep their heads on to beat Vanderbilt and South Carolina? Both of those teams tripped up the Rebels as a sandwich between beating Florida. And Houston Nutt will need to keep the Rebs focused each and every week to make the kind of run their potential says they have in them.
Mississippi State (+8000, BetUS)
The Skinny: Mississippi State struggled on offense last season to the point that it was time to move on past Sly Croom and hire and offensive guru - enter Dan Mullens, the Urban Meyer disciple. With eight returning starters on offense there is some excitement in Starkville.
Value: None. While the fans in Starkville will get to see some great games this season, they may not get to see many wins at home. LSU, Georgia Tech, Houston, Florida, Alabama and Ole Miss all make a trip to MSU and most will have the talent to escape with a win. Mullen should be able to make marked improvements at Mississippi State but not enough to win the conference this season.
South Carolina (+1600, BetUS)
The Skinny: Gamecock fans hate to be reminded that they have never won an SEC title and this year it looks as though that trend will continue. While Steve Spurrier has brought talent to South Carolina that has not translated into on-field success. Stephen Garcia may be the best quarterback that Spurrier has ever had but his off-field issues may have stunted his development.
Value: Poor. The Gamecocks were able to make a run up to No. 6 in the polls two seasons ago before a late-season collapse. Last year they were not able to get in gear with two early conference losses. Eric Norwood's return to the defense should help shore up the linebacker corps but the secondary only returns Chris Culliver and could be vulnerable.
Tennessee (+2500, BetUS)
The Skinny: Lane Kiffin has probably made more enemies than friends in his short time in Knoxville. Unfortunately for him he has to go on the road to face many of them. Trips to Florida, Alabama, and Ole Miss could make for a long season full of one-sided losses in the SEC. Kiffin and his crew do have a lot of talent and were able to pull in loads more before last season's signing day so there could be success on Rocky Top in the near future.
Value: None. Eric Berry may be the best player in the country but he alone cannot take the Vols to the Promised Land in 2009. While the defense will switch to the "Tampa 2" it's unlikely they will be near as good as Monte Kiffin had in Tampa Bay, especially with only one returning linebacker.
Vanderbilt (+8000, BetUS)
The Skinny: After starting the season 5-0 in 2008 the Commodores nearly choked the momentum away and ended up staying home instead of giving their fans a real reward for the season, a bowl game. Nine starters return on defense, but they lose the team's best player, D.J. Moore. The Dores also finished 118th out of 120 for offense last year, but may have decided to go with Larry Smith at quarterback to start the season.
Value: None. When you are ready to say that Vanderbilt can win a national title this bet makes sense. Otherwise it's a waste. Vandy does not have the talent to compete for a SEC title this season and probably won't anytime soon.