NASCAR: Save Mart 350 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 06/19/2009
Love him or hate him, Kyle Busch tries for his third consecutive road course victory as NASCAR hits the road-course of Infineon Raceway for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 this Sunday at 5:19 p.m. Also, Jeff Gordon, five-time winner at the Sonoma, California road course, will attempt to recapture first place in the Sprint Cup standings from Tony Stewart.
Who will win the 2009 Toyota/Save Mart 350?
I see this race coming down to two drivers and you can make a good argument for backing either Stewart or Jeff Gordon. Stewart is coming off a seventh-place finish at Michigan last week. The finish was good enough to keep him 47 points ahead of Gordon on the Sprint Cup leaderboard. Stewart has won at Infineon twice (2001 and 2005). Stewart has also smoked the competition with three Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes at the Sonoma road course. Stewart is respected as one of the best active road-course drivers in NASCAR. At the only other road course on the circuit, Watkins Glenn, Smoke has four wins and two seconds in seven starts.
Meanwhile, Jeff Gordon has to be considered a top-play this Sunday despite the fact that he has not won a road race since the inception of the CoT last year. Gordon is the last driver to win this race back-to-back-to-back from 1998-2000.
Jeff Gordon last won this race in 2006 and has consistently been dangerous on all tracks and all surfaces. In his last two races Gordon has finished in the Top 5, notching a second last week at Michigan and fourth place at Pocono. It looks like he might be coming out of the May doldrums where he did not finish better than 14th place in three consecutive races, May 16-31.
Kyle "Les Paul" Busch is the defending race winner and actually swept both road races last year with precision. He wasn't helped out any by starting 30th on the grid; but he knows how to work the road courses to his advantage and use a good pit-strategy to move up throughout the 110 laps. However, this weekend is going to be a very busy weekend for Rowdy. I used this system to great success last year and I think this is the perfect spot to use it again. Kyle will be racing in the Nationwide Series in Milwaukee and then the road course in Sonoma for the Sprint Cup. At 6/1 Kyle seems like a sucker bet and if you can find a prop bet against Busch winning three road courses in a row give it a look.
Pick! Jeff Gordon, No.24, (7/5)
2009 Toyota/Save Mart 350 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
Marcos Ambrose. That's a name you won't see all that often in this column; except when twice a year I look at road courses for my sports-V-Chip investment. Thanks to finishing 31st at Michigan Ambrose dropped to 18th from 20th and 650-points out of the lead in the Sprint Cup. Ambrose is virtually out of the Chase. However, he seems to be able to handle the road course well despite his deceiving 42nd-place finish last year. Keep in mind Ambrose was in the lead pack the entire race last year until he was nudged by Elliot Sadler in the chicane and ended the No. 47 Toyota's chances for a special finish. This year Ambrose has to be pumped up for the road courses. He was a V-8 Supercar superstar in Australia and I wouldn't be surprised to see him show us why on Sunday.
Pick! Marcos Ambrose, No. 47, (13/1)
2009 Toyota/Save Mart 350 - Odds for Top 3 Finish
The driver of the Chevy Target No. 42 car, Juan Pablo Montoya, has come on strong in the last two races and has to be confident coming into Infineon. JPM has finished sixth at Michigan and eighth at Pocono. Now he rolls into Sonoma, arguably his best track. In two starts on the California road course JPM has one win and one Top 10 with an average finish of 3.5 at Infineon. Given JPM's open wheel background you have to give JPM serious consideration whenever NASCAR goes out-of-the-oval. Infineon couldn't come at a better time for JPM, who is 14th in the Sprint Cup standings and is within 50 points of the 12th and final spot in the Chase and the points reset. Of course a lot will depend upon pit-position strategy and where on the grid he starts, but JPM always qualifies well on the road courses. He's won one pole this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him win another pole, and perhaps another victory. But, if not, I can't see how JPM finishes out of the Top 3 on Sunday.
Pick! Juan Pablo Montoya, (11/5)
Sprint Cup Series Toyota/Save Mart 350 - Odds for Top-Three Finish*
Sun, June 21 5:19 p.m. Infineon Raceway
A.J. Allmendinger 30/1
Bobby Labonte 68/1
Boris Said 10/1
Brandon Ash 68/1
Brian Simo 54/1
Brian Vickers 38/1
Carl Edwards 13/2
Casey Mears 17/2
Clint Bowyer 17/2
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 22/1
Dave Blaney 68/1
David Gilliland 54/1
David Ragan 54/1
David Reutimann 30/1
David Stremme 54/1
Denny Hamlin 15/2
Elliott Sadler 22/1
Greg Biffle 15/2
Jamie McMurray 11/2
Jeff Burton 9/1
Jeff Gordon 7/5
Jimmie Johnson 5/1
Joey Logano 36/1
Joe Nemechek 54/1
John Andretti 54/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 11/5
Kasey Kahne 30/1
Kevin Harvick 7/1
Kurt Busch 11/2
Kyle Busch 7/4
Marcos Ambrose 15/4
Mark Martin 15/2
Martin Truex Jr. 30/1
Matt Kenseth 30/1
Max Papis 54/1
Patrick Carpentier 10/1
Paul Menard 68/1
Reed Sorenson 68/1
Robby Gordon 4/1
Ron Fellows 10/1
Ryan Newman 7/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 51/1
Scott Speed 30/1
Tom Hubert 54/1
Tony Ave 54/1
Tony Stewart 7/5
Sprint Cup Series Odds to win the Toyota/Save Mart 350*
Sun, June 21 5:19 p.m. Infineon Raceway
A.J. Allmendinger 225/1
Bobby Labonte 225/1
Boris Said 40/1
Brandon Ash 225/1
Brian Simo 180/1
Brian Vickers 125/1
Carl Edwards 20/1
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 30/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 75/1
Dave Blaney 225/1
David Gilliland 180/1
David Ragan 180/1
David Reutimann 100/1
David Stremme 180/1
Denny Hamlin 25/1
Elliott Sadler 75/1
Greg Biffle 25/1
Jamie McMurray 20/1
Jeff Burton 30/1
Jeff Gordon 11/2
Jimmie Johnson 15/1
Joey Logano 120/1
Joe Nemechek 180/1
John Andretti 180/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 15/2
Kasey Kahne 100/1
Kevin Harvick 25/1
Kurt Busch 20/1
Kyle Busch 6/1
Marcos Ambrose 13/1
Mark Martin 25/1
Martin Truex Jr. 100/1
Matt Kenseth 100/1
Max Papis 180/1
Patrick Carpentier 40/1
Paul Menard 225/1
Reed Sorenson 225/1
Robby Gordon 15/1
Ron Fellows 35/1
Ryan Newman 25/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 180/1
Scott Speed 100/1
Tom Hubert 180/1
Tony Ave 180/1
Tony Stewart 11/2
*Odds courtesy of Bodog