MLB Underdogs
by Ron Endres - 04/13/2009
For baseball betting and handicapping, the value comes in finding the right underdogs. MLB dogs win about 44 percent of the time, so you can see that value can be found.
Money line gambling is the primary wagering option for baseball bettors. It involves betting on the straight-up game outcome with no consideration of a point spread. Oddsmakers use the money line so that more money must be risked on the favorite or expected winner and less on the underdog to balance the action on both sides.
The money line is obviously determined by the overall strength of the team and home field advantage, but the single greatest factor the bookies use to set lines is the matchup of starting pitchers.
In baseball games, on any given day, the best teams can lose to the worst teams with a greater frequency than in any other sport. The best teams in the majors generally will lose 40 percent of their games. Studies have shown that bettors that backed every favorite would lose four times as much as a bettor that bet took only underdogs.
It's very important to look for underdogs in the right situations. The oddsmaker is trying to divide the betting action in half for any given game. It's not necessarily his assessment of what will happen in a game. He is well aware that the majority of baseball bettors are going to back the favorite.
Keep in mind that bookmakers, if the action is balanced, only make a commission when the favorite loses. The bigger the favorite, the less likely the book will collect their juice. To compensate for making a profit less often, books increase the spread between favorites lay price and the underdogs payoff, making their commission bigger when the longshot does win.
Here are some guidelines that I use in finding value. I eliminate games in which the underdogs have lost three or more games in a row. I try to avoid dogs that are greater than +150. It's also hard to find value in a dog that is going against one of the Top 20 pitchers (ERA) in the league.
When you bet only underdogs, you can still show a profit if you lose more than half you games.
To find value, look for key situational factors. Sometimes when good teams are on the road versus another good team they may be an underdog. You have to find value such as that. Be selective as plenty of opportunities will be available during this marathon of an MLB season.