MLB Betting: Home Run Leader Props With Odds and Predictions
by Nicholas Tolomeo - 03/04/2009
The annual battle to be the major's home run king is one of the most followed contests of the Major League season right up there with pennant and wild card races. While the magic home run record (61, 70 or 73 whichever one you believe) is probably out of grasp for this era of sluggers the battle for the major league lead is as wide open as ever thanks to the recent MLB crackdown on performance-enhancing drugs. Figuring out who will lead the league in round trippers may not be just about who has been putting up the best numbers over recent years but which of the sluggers have remained "clean" while putting them up.
Eight of the last 13 Major League Baseball home run kings have either admitted to using performance-enhancing drugs or have tested positive for them one time or another. Given the circumstances this year may prove to be one of the trickiest for oddsmakers to set odds for who will be the 2009 home run king. Of course that has not stopped them from putting out odds. The following odds are according to Bodog.
The Favorites
Ryan Howard 3/1
Not only does Howard enter the season as part of the defending World Series champion Phillies but he is also the defending home run king, an award he was won two out of the last three years. He has not exactly come close to his breakout year of 2006 when he slugged 58 home runs although he managed 48 last season but that was with a career high 610 at bats. Not much value here with the 255-pound leftie.
Alex Rodriguez 5/1
While his season will be the highly scrutinized on many different levels, there is no denying what ARod has been able to do over the last decade. The 33-year-old, 15-year MLB veteran has won three home run crowns including in 2007 when he hit 54 home runs, nearly matching his career high of 57 he hit in 2002 while in Texas. Looking at a smaller sample set, the last three seasons, Rodriguez has had two down years with only 35 home runs in both 2006 and last season. The eyes will be on ARod this year and in pressure situations Rodriguez has continued to struggle.
Evan Longoria 10/1
The sample size is small, with 27 home runs in a breakout rookie season, and the odds do not warrant a gamble here as Longoria plays in a pitcher-friendly dome and pitchers have had a year to learn Longoria's tendencies.
Ryan Braun 10/1
A surprising choice here at 10/1, the oddsmakers have put the three-year veteran right on par with the field which is also 10/1. In his only two years of Major League service Braun has hit 34 and 37 home runs. Many believe the 25-year old right hander is one of the truly "clean" players in baseball and a bet here says that the rest of the performance enhancing users will see major decline in their home run numbers while Braun flourishes in a Brewers lineup where he will have protection thanks to the next slugger we will discuss.
Proven Sluggers with Solid Value
Prince Fielder 15/1
The key to figuring out Fielder is if the 2007 season was an exception or the rule for the four-year veteran. Fielder led the National League with 50 home runs in 2007 but that was sandwiched around two seasons of 28 and 34 homeruns. Fielder should expect to see more opportunities this season after being walked 84 times last year and at 15/1 he is a more proven commodity than his teammate, Braun at 10/1.
Albert Pujols 15/1
With a player of Pujols' caliber it's not just about what you think he is capable of, it's more of a matter of who else is in the Cardinals lineup that will force pitchers to pitch to him. Since he reached the major leagues in 2001, Pujols has been walked at least 69 times a season including four consecutive seasons of 90+ walks. His home run numbers have struggled because of that. He has only hit 32 and 37 the last two seasons after a stretch run of 40+ home runs between 2003-2006.
This year in the Cardinals lineup Pujols should see more pitches with other home run sluggers in the lineup including Ryan Ludwick (75/1) and Rick Ankiel (100/1). A bet on Pujols is a low-risk bet considering his odds and his solid sheet of health he has been able to maintain while in the majors.
Adam Dunn 18/1
Talk about consistency, you can almost put Dunn down for 40 home runs right now. The Texas native and 29-year old Dunn has hit 40 home runs four consecutive seasons. His strikeouts have always been an issue but with a bet like this strikeouts should not be a concern because Dunn will not lose his spot in the Washington Nationals lineup like he may in other places. The move to the Nationals new expansive ball park will hurt his numbers just like his numbers suffered after leaving Great American Ballpark last year to go to Arizona where he only hit eight home runs in 44 games.
Dark Horses
Alfonso Soriano 20/1
Soriano enters every year with an inherent advantage, not only because he plays in Wrigley Field where the wind can single handily turn pop outs into home runs, but also because Soriano will see more pitches than any other slugger. Batting leadoff throughout most of his career, Soriano had 600+ at bats in five consecutive seasons between 2002-2006. He struggled last year with a wrist injury that kept him out for a good majority of the season but before that he hit 40+ home runs three consecutive times and in the potent Cubs lineup, Soriano will see plenty of pitches to swing at no matter what spot in the batting lineup he fills out.
Mark Teixeira 25/1
A lot of money was spent on Teixeira but do not get that confused with home run-hitting ability. Teixeira has only hit more than 40 home runs once in his six-year career and that year was back in 2005 at Texas, three teams ago.
The Long Shots to Keep an Eye on
David Ortiz 40/1
The three-year stretch of 41, 47 and 54 homeruns seems like so long ago when Ortiz accomplished the run in 2004-2006 but he should be able to bounce back this year after two down years (35 and 23 homeruns in 2006 and 2007). Ortiz played in only 109 games last season, battling injuries throughout the year.
Manny Ramirez 40/1
The 16-year, 36-year old veteran has shown that he can catch fire at any point in a season. He has hit 45 home runs twice in his career but never surpassed that number. However, this year it may only take around 40 home runs to win the crown.
Home Run Leader betting odds from Bodog:
Ryan Howard 3/1
Alex Rodriguez 5/1
Ryan Braun 10/1
Evan Longoria 10/1
Prince Fielder 15/1
Albert Pujols 15/1
Adam Dunn 18/1
Miguel Cabrera 20/1
Mark Teixeira 25/1
Carlos Quentin 30/1
Josh Hamilton 30/1
Carlos Pena 30/1
Jermaine Dye 35/1
David Ortiz 40/1
Manny Ramirez 40/1
Carlos Lee 40/1
Jim Thome 50/1
Pat Burrell 50/1
Chris Davis 50/1
Adrian Gonzalez 50/1
Lance Berkman 60/1