College Football Power Rankings - The Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 10/8/2009
The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings, a ladder or hierarchy based on which teams are the most profitable on the field. I'm not trying to give you some other nonsensical, random, speculative power rankings based on my own biases and conjecture. So instead of Ohio State moving up or down the polls on the basis of how badly they blew out Northwestern the previous Saturday, I'm going to rank each team based on past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread.
And over the past two years they have been on point. In 2007 the teams that finished in the Ferringo 15 had a collective 121-46-1 mark against the spread. Last year the teams that were in the Ferringo 15 each week went 81-63-3 for the season. That means every week when I rotated someone else in I took their performance ATS for that weekend's games. We won 57.6 percent of those situations. Also, after two weeks I had the sport nailed. The teams that were listed in the Ferringo 15 entering Week 3 went on to finish the year a collective 113-67-2 ATS. That's a 62.8 winning percentage and it means that if you had bet $100 per week on only those 15 teams for the whole year you would have finished the season up around $4,000.
Last weekend was another rare, rare down week for the F-15. It's been pretty stunning actually; as for the first time in Ferringo 15 history the teams in this space have failed to produce for three straight weeks! For the season that is now just a 28-31-1 mark. However, I still feel like it's a long season and that the value will increase as the season tracks on.
1. Idaho (5-0) - Yeah, I know: I'm surprised as hell too. The Vandals are the only 5-0 ATS team in the country right now. They are 4-1 overall right now and - you're never going to believe this - are the main threat to Boise State's BCS hopes right now. This recent success is a continuation of last year's late run as this crew went 4-2 ATS to close the year. They are healthy, off a bye week, and catching points at underachieving San Jose State, so there is still value here. However, four weeks in a row the No. 1 team in my F-15 has gone down. Can it happen again?
2. Stanford (4-1) - The Cardinal are no fluke. And if they can leave Corvallis with a win this week - they are currently a one-point underdog - then this team could find its way into the Top 25. Until then, coach Jim Harbaugh can still play the disrespect card. But they have been terrible on the road (3-9 ATS their last 12 away) and have not had any success against Oregon State recently (3-9 ATS in last 12 meetings). If they are for real they will have to reverse those trends.
3. UCLA (3-1) - This group is one of the best teams outside of the Top 25. And things just got better as first string quarterback Kevin Prince will be back under center this week to face Oregon. This UCLA team has been money over the past few years and has been producing very quietly. But they are 21-6 ATS at home, 16-7 ATS in Pac-10 play, and 16-5 ATS against a team with a winning record.
4. Connecticut (4-0) - The more this team gets underestimated the more they cash. That's now eight of the past 11 games that the Huskies have won against the number and they are again catching over a touchdown at Pittsburgh this week. The puppy has cashed three straight years in that series.
5. Auburn (4-1) - Last week the Tigers showed that they could win away from home with really a tough victory in Knoxville. This week Auburn is again on the road, at Arkansas, but instead of being listed as a short, two-point dog they are actually small road favorites (2-). That's never a good sign in an underdog-happy conference like the SEC.
6. Alabama (4-1) - Every year one of the Top 5 teams just wrecks it against the spread and this season it could be Alabama. They are actually laying nearly a touchdown on the road against the preseason SEC West favorite, Mississippi. And right now I don't know too many people that are thrilled to lay their money down on the Rebels. Good teams win and cover on the road. Alabama is 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games, 6-1 ATS in SEC play, and 9-2 ATS as a favorite. They're that good.
7. Louisiana-Monroe (4-1) - The Warhawks had seven road games on their slate for this season. They have been money through the first three, but now still have to go on the road for four of their next seven games. On one hand, that should be great for their value, as they should be dogged in most of those spots. However, you have to wonder if the travel is going to catch up with this veteran team and they will run out of steam as the year wears on.
8. Ohio State (4-1) - They just win. The Buckeyes were written off after USC but they are still the best team in the worst BCS conference in college football. The true value with this club is on the road. They are 20-7 ATS on the road and 18-5 ATS as a road chalk.
9. Boise State (4-0) - I am still very wary of putting such a "spotlight" team this high on my list. However, they "only" won by 18 points against a D-IAA team last week and they were passed over in the polls by some BCS teams. You think that's not motivation for one of the sharpest offenses in the nation?
10. Nebraska (4-0) - The Huskers are heading into a hornet's nest this week. They are a road favorite at Missouri - another strong ATS team so far this year - in a marquee Thursday night game. Over the past three seasons road favorites on Thursday night are a pathetic 2-13-1 ATS. Nebraska is the better team but those are tough numbers to play against.
11. Central Florida (4-0) - This is another team that has come out of nowhere this week. They are a physical; grinding team that pulls opponents down and makes them slug it out. They played two of the best teams in the conference, Southern Miss and East Carolina, incredibly tough on the road this year while losing by just seven and five points, respectively. That tells me that this club is legit. And even though Miami and Texas should tag them in the coming weeks that could actually serve to increase their value in conference.
12. Pittsburgh (3-1) - I know I have been very hesitant to play any teams out of the Big East this year because it's just so tough to gauge which teams are for real and which ones aren't. Pitt is the prime example. Just as I write them and their awful, terrible, joke of a coach (Dave Wannstedt) off they go on the road and lay down a 25-point beating. Regardless, I don't expect Pitt to stay in the F-15 long. Especially if they can't turn around a 5-11 ATS slide at home.
13. Washington (3-2) - The Huskies keep losing, but keep covering. I'll take it. They have two of their next three games at home before a very tricky close to the season. Washington isn't going bowling this year. But they are going to continue to play hard and, because of how pathetic they have been the past few seasons, they are going to continue to be met by skepticism from the general betting public.
14. Wyoming (3-1) - I guess Wyoming's early success makes sense. I mean, this team was a shockingly bad 2-17-1 ATS heading into this season. They had nowhere to go but up. New coach Dave Christensen inherited a veteran team and he is making the most of it. Now they are taking on a New Mexico club that is on a 1-6 ATS slide of its own and has lost nine straight games outright. The Lobos have outscored the Cowboys 44-3 over the past two years so this could be time for some revenge.
15. Iowa (3-1) - The Hawkeyes really have a chance for a statement win this week against a soft Michigan team. Iowa is tough to get behind mainly because of the inconsistency of quarterback "Swingin'" Dick Stanzi. However, in a physical conference this team may hit the hardest. In a down year for the Big Ten this could be Iowa's shot at The Roses.
Others Receiving Votes: Missouri (3-1), Michigan (3-2), Indiana (3-1), South Florida (3-1), Temple (3-0), Northern Illinois (4-1), Utah State (3-1).
Robert Ferringo is a professional handicapper and you can purchase a full season's package of his football selections for just $25 per week! Click here for details.
Most Recent College Football Power Rankings
- College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
- College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
- College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
- College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
- College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
- College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
- College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
- College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
- College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
- College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15