Mark Martin will try to extend his 35-point lead over Jimmie Johnson in the Chase for the Spring Cup at the "Monster Mile" of Dover, Delaware for the AAA 400 on Sunday, September 27 at 2 p.m.

This will be the second of NASCAR's ten-race playoff format known as the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Gamblers should keep in mind that seven different drivers have won at Dover in the last seven races so the trend has leaned toward prior performance has little influence over repeat results. 

Who will win the 2009 AAA 400
Two huge beneficiaries after last week's Sylvania 300 were Ryan Newman and Juan Pablo Montoya. JPM moved up seven spots to fourth in the standings -55 points while Newman moved up five spots to seventh in the standings -79 points behind Martin in the standings. Neither Montoya nor Newman are locks to stay or move higher than where they are, but we will see. Newman's team mate at Stewart-Haas Racing, Tony Stewart, didn't fare so well and dropped three places to sixth place. Since leading the points for practically the entire season Stewart has no top-tens in the last five races and has moved down in the standings ever since the points reset (I am sure Jeff Gordon would commiserate). Speaking of, Gordon dropped four spots to tenth and will need a good showing at Dover if he hopes to cut into the -102 points.

Meanwhile, after one race Kasey Kahne is already out of the Chase as he lost seven spots thanks to a 38th place finish and an insurmountable -161 points away from first. And with the infighting at Richard Petty Motorsports it doesn't appear that Kahne will get any better this week. I'd steer clear of the No. 9 car on Sunday.

Before the Sylvania 300 I wrote I really liked backing Hamlin at 8/1 to win the Chase and New Hampshire did nothing to change my mind. Hamlin finished second and proved that he has a realistic shot at the Sprint Cup. I loved how he managed to wrestle a second place away from JPM. While Hamlin is also -35 points behind Martin Johnson gets the nod for second due to season wins. However, this week I wouldn't be surprised to see Hamlin drop a spot or two since Hamlin struggles at the Monster Mile. Hamlin is set at 8/1 and even those odds are way to generous for a driver who in seven starts has no wins, one top-five and two-top tens. In his last four races his best finish was in May when he finished 36th. No thanks I am passing on Hamlin on Sunday due to the fact there is way too much downside risk in either win or top-three markets.
There are two drivers who have no business not winning this Sunday; Johnson and Greg Biffle. Not a big surprise since both drivers has dominated at Dover. Hendrick Motorsports' Johnson is set at 9/2 to win the AAA 400 and for good reason. Johnson is a four-time winner at the concrete mixing bowl. He won in May and came in fifth last fall en route to his third Sprint Cup. Johnson also swept Dover in 2002 and won it in May of 2005. Johnson finished fourth at NHMS last week which was good enough to move him into second place in the standings after one race. Obviously Johnson is always a threat to win, but despite this the concrete mile doesn't play to his strengths and given his comfy position in the standings I don't expect Johnson to take unnecessary risks to win this race either.

Rousch Fenway Racings' Greg Biffle is set at 10/1 to win the AAA 400. Biffle is coming off of a ninth place finish last week and cracked the top-ten moving up two spots to ninth in the NSCS standings.  Nobody has been more consistent at Dover than two-time winner Biffle who in the last six starts has posted one win and five top-five finishes. More impressive is that in those six races Biffle has led a combined 300 laps. If you aren't convinced he can beat Johnson on Sunday it is folly not backing him as a top-three finisher at 3/1.       
Pick! Greg Biffle, No. 16, (10/1)
2009 AAA 400 - Odds for Top 3 Finish

Last Saturday at the Sylvania 300 my pick, Denny Hamlin, paid off 9/5 by virtue of his second place finish at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. The one mile oval of Dover is one of two all concrete tracks on the NASCAR circuit and features a fast bumpy surface. "Concrete" Carl Edwards, set at 11/1 to win on Sunday, usually excels on this surface, hence his namesake, however, given that Edwards is still nursing a broken foot and Rousch Fenway Racings problems this season, the winless Edwards will need a great car to win on Sunday. Edwards is coming off of a 17th place finish at NHMS, which kept Edwards in 11th place in the Chase, to start his Sprint Cup quest. Keep in mind that Edwards has finished seventh or better in his last six races at Dover and won in 2007.  Edwards is going to need a top-three finish at Dover to keep up with the likes of Martin, Johnson, Hamlin and Stewart. Broken foot and all I like "Concrete" Carl to represent on Sunday.

Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, (10/3)

Odds* to finish in the Top 3 - 2009 AAA 400
Sun, Sept. 27, 2 p.m.  Dover International Raceway

A.J. Allmendinger 30/1
Brian Vickers 9/1
Carl Edwards 10/3
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 15/2
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 9/1
David Ragan 30/1
David Reutimann 15/1
David Stremme 30/1
Denny Hamlin 5/2
Elliott Sadler 30/1
Greg Biffle 3/1
Jamie McMurray 30/1
Jeff Burton 12/1
Jeff Gordon 5/2
Jimmie Johnson 13/10
Joey Logano 18/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 9/2
Kasey Kahne 11/2
Kevin Harvick 13/2
Kurt Busch 9/2
Kyle Busch 5/2
Marcos Ambrose 30/1
Mark Martin 9/5
Martin Truex Jr. 14/1
Matt Kenseth 9/1
Michael Waltrip 30/1
Paul Menard 30/1
Reed Sorenson 30/1
Ryan Newman 9/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1
Scott Speed 30/1
Tony Stewart 21/10
Field (Any Other Driver) 12/1

Odds* to Win the 2009 AAA 400
Sun, Sept. 27, 2 p.m.  Dover International Raceway

A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Brian Vickers 30/1
Carl Edwards 11/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 25/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 30/1
David Ragan 100/1
David Reutimann 50/1
David Stremme 100/1
Denny Hamlin 8/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 10/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Jeff Burton 40/1
Jeff Gordon 8/1
Jimmie Johnson 9/2
Joey Logano 60/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 15/1
Kasey Kahne 19/1
Kevin Harvick 22/1
Kurt Busch 15/1
Kyle Busch 9/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Mark Martin 6/1
Martin Truex Jr. 45/1
Matt Kenseth 30/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Ryan Newman 30/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Speed 100/1
Tony Stewart 7/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 40/1

*Odds courtesy of Bodog.com