With only three races remaining in the Chase for the Sprint Cup, this year's eventual Champion, Jimmie Johnson, has a massive 183 points lead ahead of Carl Edwards, who won the spring race. This weekend NASCAR motors down to Texas Motor Speedway this Sunday 3:30 p.m. for the Dickies 500.

Gamblers who like to follow trends should keep in mind that in the past three years the driver to win the fall AMS race have gone on to win at Texas. Johnson did it last year, Tony Stewart did it in 2006 and Carl Edwards did it 2005.

Who will win the Dickies 500?

Exactly how good is Johnson? I picked him to win last weekend at AMS and, though he was down a lap after 200 laps, he managed to whittle down the deficit and make it back to the lead lap. He had an astounding run to close the Atlanta race, picking off nine positions in the final eight laps to finish second behind Carl Edwards.

While the win boosted Edwards into second place in the Chase standings, Edwards win was ruined, he joked, when he was told Johnson finished second place and increased his apparent stranglehold on the other Chasers. In fact, during the Chase Johnson has ripped 12 consecutive top-10 finishes. How is that for consistency?

At the Samsung 500 Carl Edwards and Johnson finished 1-2; it was his third win of the season for Edwards, who led the race 123 laps and a disappointing finish for Johnson (and for this column which had picked Johnson to win) who led the race for 65 laps. In the final restart at Texas there were only 10 cars left on the lead lap, which made it a one-lap shoot-out for the checkered flag.

This Sunday I expect to see a similar race as I saw last weekend at AMS. Since both tracks at 1.5 miles favor the drivers of the No. 48 and No. 99 car. Traditionally drivers who have done well at AMS do well at Texas the following week. Both tracks' surfaces are hard on tires, which put an emphasis on grip and solid pit strategy at a premium.

What makes backing the No. 48 difficult this weekend is because JJ owns 1.5 mile tracks but he has such a commanding lead that doing anything more than protecting his lead could result in disaster in terms of points. The question is will Johnson try to protect his points lead on Sunday with a respectable finish (and I think it is safe to say if JJ doesn't win at least he'll finish in the top-10 if JJ's top-10 trend in Chase races continues) or will he go for the win? Last weekend proved that JJ isn't about to play it safe, yet this weekend he almost has to-especially if Edwards wins the race and collects 190 points for the effort.

Edwards is a go-for-broke competitor and that style has served him well in the past. That win-or-wreck attitude is what makes NASCAR, NASCAR. I expect Edwards to build on last weekend's win and to take advantage of Johnson protecting his lead for a season sweep this year at Texas Motor Speedway.

Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, (13/4)

Dickies 500 Solid Gold Picks

Long Odds Value Pick

All of a sudden Joe Gibbs Racing Denny Hamlin's No. 11 FEDEX Ford has been racing well with two consecutive top-five finishes in the last two Chase races. Last weekend at AMS he even led the race for 56 laps. Hamlin, coincidently, is 11th in the Chase Standings and while he won't win the championship this year he could cause a shake-up in the standings and gain some of the all-important owner's points in the process. He has been running well on the 1.5-mile tracks and his third place at Atlanta could be a portent of things to come on this Sunday.

Pick! Denny Hamlin, No. 11, (14/1)

Denny Hamlin, No 11, (+1.25) vs. Greg Biffle, No. 16, (-1.55)

I had a disastrous weekend at AMS as Mr. Consistency, Clint Bowyer, who had finished AMS sixth in his last three races lost to the No. 6 car in a head-to-head match-up I played for five units. While Bowyer started the race fifth on the grid to Ragan's 13th on the grid, thanks to another week of washed out qualifiers, Bowyer couldn't overcome some early problems my record Over-the-Wall now stands at 14-18, -10.35 units on the season after 33 of 36 Sprint Cup races completed. This week I really love Hamlin to do very well at Texas and while normally I don't like to ride shotgun with the same driver across the board I think Hamlin is getting great odds as a short-odds dog to Biffle; especially on this track. Keep in mind that Hamlin has finished in the top-10 five out of six times; mathematically this means Hamlin has finished in the top-10 83 percent of the time he has raced at Texas. I feel really strong about this play and will throw the yellow flag to the wind and venture another five units on this pick.

Pick! Denny Hamlin, No 11, (+1.25) for five units.

Dickies 500 Odds
Sun, Nov 2nd (3:30pm EST) Texas Motor Speedway, TX

AJ Allmendinger100/1
Bill Elliott 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brad Keselowski 150/1
Brian Vickers 30/1
Carl Edwards 13/4
Casey Mears 100/1
Chad McCumbee 100/1
Clint Bowyer 30/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12/1
Dave Blaney 100/1
David Gilliland 100/1
David Ragan 30/1
David Reutimann 100/1
Denny Hamlin 14/1
Elliott Sadler 75/1
Greg Biffle 8/1
Jamie McMurray 40/1
Jeff Burton 18/1
Jeff Gordon 12/1
Jimmie Johnson 4/1
Joe Nemechek 100/1
Joey Logano 100/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 100/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Kevin Harvick 30/1
Ken Schrader 100/1
Kurt Busch 25/1
Kyle Busch 7/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Mark Martin 30/1
Martin Truex Jr. 40/1
Matt Kenseth 9/1
Max Papis 150/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Robby Gordon 100/1
Ryan Newman 50/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Riggs 100/1
Scott Speed100/1
Tony Raines 100/1
Tony Stewart 12/1
Travis Kvapil 100/1